{"items":[{"id":26,"event_id":9,"slug":"9-lga-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA now reports departure delays of 76–90 min at LaGuardia","body":"The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 76–90 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.","what_changed":"range 61–75 → 76–90 min","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:13:59.654453Z","time":"7:13 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"26 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:13 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:13 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:12:32.709000Z","time":"7:12 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:12 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:12 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:13:59.558889Z","time":"7:13 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"26 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:13 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:13 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMzoxMzo1OS42NTQ0NTMrMDA6MDB8MjY","lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":26,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":18,"event_id":5,"slug":"5-lga-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 73%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"62% → 73% since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T22:27:40.752465Z","time":"6:27 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 6:27 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 22:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T21:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 5:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T22:27:40.573772Z","time":"6:27 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 6:27 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 22:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMjoyNzo0MC43NTI0NjUrMDA6MDB8MTg","forecast":{"p_pct":"73%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"LGA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T21:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 5:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":18,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4,"event_id":4,"slug":"4-lga-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 64% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.329595Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.024561Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMjk1OTUrMDA6MDB8NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":98,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":4,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMzoxMzo1OS42NTQ0NTMrMDA6MDB8MjY","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"26\" data-event=\"9\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMzoxMzo1OS42NTQ0NTMrMDA6MDB8MjY\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-26\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-16T23:13:59.654453Z\" title=\"2026-10-16 23:13 UTC · Fri Oct 16, 7:13 PM EDT\">7:13 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EDT, Oct 16</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-16T23:13:59.654453Z\">26 min ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-confirmed\" title=\"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-check\"/></svg>Confirmed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/LGA\">LGA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-26\"><a href=\"/wire/events/9-lga-delays#u-26\">FAA now reports departure delays of 76–90 min at LaGuardia</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> range 61–75 → 76–90 min</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 76–90 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.</p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: <a href=\"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗</a></span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/9-lga-delays#u-26\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/9-lga-delays\">4 earlier matching updates</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/LGA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View LGA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"9\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/9-lga-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"18\" data-event=\"5\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMjoyNzo0MC43NTI0NjUrMDA6MDB8MTg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-18\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-16T22:27:40.752465Z\" title=\"2026-10-16 22:27 UTC · Fri Oct 16, 6:27 PM EDT\">6:27 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EDT, Oct 16</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-16T22:27:40.752465Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 73%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/LGA\">LGA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-18\"><a href=\"/wire/events/5-lga-delays#u-18\">Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 73%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 62% → 73% since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>73%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>2.5 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/5-lga-delays#u-18\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/5-lga-delays\">3 earlier matching updates</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/LGA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View LGA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"5\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/5-lga-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"4\" data-event=\"4\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMjk1OTUrMDA6MDB8NA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-4\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-16T19:54:42.329595Z\" title=\"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC · Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT\">3:54 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EDT, Oct 16</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-16T19:54:42.329595Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 64%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/LGA\">LGA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-4\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4-lga-delays#u-4\">Model forecasts 64% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>64%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>2.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4-lga-delays#u-4\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/LGA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View LGA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4-lga-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=LGA"}