{"items":[{"id":9748,"event_id":4223,"slug":"4223-mci-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Kansas City departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 AM Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 7%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Kansas City departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 83%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.527622Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy41Mjc2MjIrMDA6MDB8OTE5MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"MCI departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9191,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9021,"event_id":3906,"slug":"3906-mci-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Kansas City departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 10:07 AM and 11:07 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. 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Kansas City typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Kansas City departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Kansas City departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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Kansas City typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T19:31:30.777387Z","time":"1:31 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:31 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 19:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T19:31:00Z","time":"1:31 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:31 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 19:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T19:31:29.908202Z","time":"1:31 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:31 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 19:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxOTozMTozMC43NzczODcrMDA6MDB8NzExMQ","measurement":{"window":"12:31 PM–1:31 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"46%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":14.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7111,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6486,"event_id":2818,"slug":"2818-mci-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Kansas City departures running late: 42% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 11:23 AM and 12:23 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T18:23:36.638651Z","time":"12:23 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 12:23 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 18:23 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-04T18:23:00Z","time":"12:23 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 12:23 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 18:23 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-04T18:23:36.085549Z","time":"12:23 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 12:23 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 18:23 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQxODoyMzozNi42Mzg2NTErMDA6MDB8NjQ4Ng","measurement":{"window":"11:23 AM–12:23 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"42%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6486,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6204,"event_id":2661,"slug":"2661-mci-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Kansas City departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday to 38%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 38%; calm-weather level 30%","airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T20:28:33.025053Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 20:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T20:28:26.545971Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 20:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QyMDoyODozMy4wMjUwNTMrMDA6MDB8NjIwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"38%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"MCI departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":50,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6204,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5808,"event_id":2559,"slug":"2559-mci-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Kansas City arrivals running late: 57% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:07 PM and 8:07 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T02:07:40.871388Z","time":"8:07 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 8:07 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 02:07 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T02:07:00Z","time":"8:07 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 8:07 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 02:07 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T02:07:38.788353Z","time":"8:07 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 8:07 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 02:07 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QwMjowNzo0MC44NzEzODgrMDA6MDB8NTgwOA","measurement":{"window":"7:07 PM–8:07 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"57%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":27.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5808,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5763,"event_id":2536,"slug":"2536-mci-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Kansas City departures running late: 58% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 5:20 PM and 6:20 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T00:20:19.017449Z","time":"6:20 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:20 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 00:20 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T00:20:00Z","time":"6:20 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:20 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 00:20 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T00:20:17.484428Z","time":"6:20 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:20 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 00:20 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QwMDoyMDoxOS4wMTc0NDkrMDA6MDB8NTc2Mw","measurement":{"window":"5:20 PM–6:20 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"58%","baseline_pct":"30%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":30.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5763,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5590,"event_id":2217,"slug":"2217-mci-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Kansas City departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday at 51%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 51% since the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T19:26:59.087246Z","time":"1:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 19:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T19:26:55.329169Z","time":"1:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 19:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxOToyNjo1OS4wODcyNDYrMDA6MDB8NTU5MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"MCI departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5590,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5224,"event_id":2325,"slug":"2325-mci-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Kansas City departures noon–3 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Kansas City noon–3 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T08:29:48.230303Z","time":"2:29 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 2:29 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 08:29 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T08:29:46.058047Z","time":"2:29 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 2:29 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 08:29 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQwODoyOTo0OC4yMzAzMDMrMDA6MDB8NTIyNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"MCI departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":49,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5224,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5007,"event_id":2241,"slug":"2241-mci-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Kansas City departures running late: 69% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 6:31 PM and 7:31 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T01:31:07.141588Z","time":"7:31 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 7:31 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 01:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T01:31:00Z","time":"7:31 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 7:31 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 01:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T01:31:03.912101Z","time":"7:31 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 7:31 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 01:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQwMTozMTowNy4xNDE1ODgrMDA6MDB8NTAwNw","measurement":{"window":"6:31 PM–7:31 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"69%","baseline_pct":"37%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":37.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5007,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3440,"event_id":1530,"slug":"1530-mci-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Kansas City arrivals back near normal: 7% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 arrivals that landed between 11:15 PM and 12:15 AM CDT, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 46% at worst → 7% now","airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-10-27T05:15:03.619129Z","time":"12:15 AM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"18 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 12:15 AM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 05:15 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-27T05:15:00Z","time":"12:15 AM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"18 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 12:15 AM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 05:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-27T05:15:03.185787Z","time":"12:15 AM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"18 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 12:15 AM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 05:15 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yN1QwNToxNTowMy42MTkxMjkrMDA6MDB8MzQ0MA","measurement":{"window":"11:15 PM–12:15 AM CDT","n":15,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"7%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-8.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":3440,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2485,"event_id":1107,"slug":"1107-mci-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Kansas City departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-23T18:56:05.846032Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:56 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 18:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-23T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:00 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-23T18:55:56.635395Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:55 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QxODo1NjowNS44NDYwMzIrMDA6MDB8MjQ4NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"MCI departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-23T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:00 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":2485,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2484,"event_id":1106,"slug":"1106-mci-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Kansas City departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Friday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-23T18:56:05.833478Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:56 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 18:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-23T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:00 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-23T18:55:56.635395Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:55 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QxODo1NjowNS44MzM0NzgrMDA6MDB8MjQ4NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"MCI departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":35,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-23T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:00 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":2484,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2242,"event_id":974,"slug":"974-mci-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Kansas City arrivals running late: 58% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 11:50 PM and 12:50 AM CDT, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-10-23T05:50:28.034960Z","time":"12:50 AM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 12:50 AM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 05:50 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-23T05:50:00Z","time":"12:50 AM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 12:50 AM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 05:50 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-23T05:50:27.099919Z","time":"12:50 AM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 12:50 AM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 05:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QwNTo1MDoyOC4wMzQ5NjArMDA6MDB8MjI0Mg","measurement":{"window":"11:50 PM–12:50 AM CDT","n":12,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"58%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":27.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":2242,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":1915,"event_id":875,"slug":"875-mci-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Kansas City departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-22T20:25:59.315582Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"23 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 3:25 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-22T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"23 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 2:00 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-22T20:25:57.756669Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"23 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 3:25 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yMlQyMDoyNTo1OS4zMTU1ODIrMDA6MDB8MTkxNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"MCI departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-22T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"23 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 2:00 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":1915,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":764,"event_id":344,"slug":"344-mci-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Kansas City departures 6–9 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Sunday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCI"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-18T20:27:44.526170Z","time":"3:27 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"27 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 3:27 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 20:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-18T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"27 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 2:00 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-18T20:27:43.342411Z","time":"3:27 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"27 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 3:27 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 20:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xOFQyMDoyNzo0NC41MjYxNzArMDA6MDB8NzY0","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"MCI departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-18T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"27 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 2:00 PM CDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":764,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi43MTgwODUrMDA6MDB8OTc0OA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Kansas City departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 31%, near normal

\n

What changed: 41% → 31%; calm-weather level 7%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 AM Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 7%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 31%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 22 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 83%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Kansas City departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 83%

\n

What changed: 47% → 83% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 83%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 23 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Kansas City departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 43%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 27 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Kansas City departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 75% at worst → 7% now

\n \n

Of 14 departures that took off between 10:07 AM and 11:07 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 13% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 23% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 10:07 AM–11:07 AM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 7%Typical 13%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 42 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n MCI\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Kansas City arrival delays ease: 42% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 69% → 42%

\n \n

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 7:20 PM and 8:20 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:20 PM–8:20 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 47 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Kansas City departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Kansas City departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 5:25 PM and 6:25 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 5:25 PM–6:25 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 30%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Kansas City arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 4:41 PM and 5:41 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 4:41 PM–5:41 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 56%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Kansas City departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 56%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Kansas City departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Kansas City departures running late: 46% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 12:31 PM and 1:31 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:31 PM–1:31 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 4\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Kansas City departures running late: 42% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 11:23 AM and 12:23 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:23 AM–12:23 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 18%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 3\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 38%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Kansas City departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday to 38%, near normal

\n

What changed: 47% → 38%; calm-weather level 30%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 38%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 2\n 11 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Kansas City arrivals running late: 57% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:07 PM and 8:07 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 7:07 PM–8:07 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 2\n 11 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
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Kansas City departures running late: 58% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 12 departures that took off between 5:20 PM and 6:20 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 5:20 PM–6:20 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 30%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 2\n 12 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
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Updated model puts Kansas City departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday at 51%

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What changed: 41% → 51% since the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 51%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCI\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 2\n 12 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 41%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Kansas City departures noon–3 PM Monday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Kansas City noon–3 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 41%Horizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 1\n 12 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
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Kansas City departures running late: 69% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 13 departures that took off between 6:31 PM and 7:31 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 6:31 PM–7:31 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 69%Typical 37%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CDT, Oct 27\n 18 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MCI\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Kansas City arrivals back near normal: 7% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 46% at worst → 7% now

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Of 15 arrivals that landed between 11:15 PM and 12:15 AM CDT, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 11:15 PM–12:15 AM CDTSample 15 flightsLate 7%Typical 23%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCI\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CDT, Oct 23\n 22 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Kansas City departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 43%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CDT, Oct 23\n 22 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 41%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Kansas City departures 3–6 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Friday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 41%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CDT, Oct 23\n 22 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Kansas City arrivals running late: 58% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 12 arrivals that landed between 11:50 PM and 12:50 AM CDT, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 11:50 PM–12:50 AM CDTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CDT, Oct 22\n 23 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 41%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Kansas City departures 6–9 PM Thursday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 41%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CDT, Oct 18\n 27 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Kansas City departures 6–9 PM Sunday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Sunday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 43%Horizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCI\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=MCI"}