{"items":[{"id":12256,"event_id":4825,"slug":"4825-mco-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among MCO departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 114 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.076674Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"24 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"24 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4wNzY2NzQrMDA6MDB8MTIyNTY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.8,"target":"MCO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":114,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12256,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12103,"event_id":5003,"slug":"5003-mco-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among MCO departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 102 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.008726Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0OC4wMDg3MjYrMDA6MDB8MTIxMDM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.2,"target":"MCO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":102,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12103,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12102,"event_id":5002,"slug":"5002-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 55% delay risk for MCO departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.995490Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny45OTU0OTArMDA6MDB8MTIxMDI","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":8.2,"target":"MCO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":102,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12102,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11904,"event_id":4766,"slug":"4766-mco-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among MCO departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 106 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:27:32.144301Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:27:31.773008Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwODoyNzozMi4xNDQzMDErMDA6MDB8MTE5MDQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.2,"target":"MCO departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":106,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11904,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11838,"event_id":4922,"slug":"4922-mco-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among MCO departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 90 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:35.846846Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:33.606557Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNS44NDY4NDYrMDA6MDB8MTE4Mzg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.3,"target":"MCO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":90,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11838,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11836,"event_id":4921,"slug":"4921-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for MCO departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Sunday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:35.833846Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:33.606557Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNS44MzM4NDYrMDA6MDB8MTE4MzY","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":6.3,"target":"MCO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":90,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11836,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11737,"event_id":4721,"slug":"4721-mco-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO arrival delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 arrivals that landed between 11:32 PM and 12:32 AM EST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 50% → 67%","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:32:50.922537Z","time":"12:32 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:32 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:32 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:32:00Z","time":"12:32 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:32 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:32 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:32:50.733265Z","time":"12:32 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:32 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:32 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNTozMjo1MC45MjI1MzcrMDA6MDB8MTE3Mzc","measurement":{"window":"11:32 PM–12:32 AM EST","n":21,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"67%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":19.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":10,"latest_update_id":11737,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":10,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11692,"event_id":4866,"slug":"4866-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for MCO departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from MCO 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:17.192076Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:16.533924Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNDo1NjoxNy4xOTIwNzYrMDA6MDB8MTE2OTI","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":12.3,"target":"MCO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":114,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11692,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11664,"event_id":4611,"slug":"4611-mco-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO departure delays worsen: 86% late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 10:01 PM and 11:01 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 70% → 86%","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:01:26.766540Z","time":"11:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:01 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:01:00Z","time":"11:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:01 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:01:26.501138Z","time":"11:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:01 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNDowMToyNi43NjY1NDArMDA6MDB8MTE2NjQ","measurement":{"window":"10:01 PM–11:01 PM EST","n":14,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"86%","baseline_pct":"47%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":124.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":8,"latest_update_id":11664,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":8,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11265,"event_id":4526,"slug":"4526-mco-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among MCO departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 14 → 22 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:56:43.154200Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:56:42.074446Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMTo1Njo0My4xNTQyMDArMDA6MDB8MTEyNjU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":22.3,"target":"MCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":101,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":11265,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10998,"event_id":4416,"slug":"4416-mco-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among MCO departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 108 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 14 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.594515Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1MS41OTQ1MTUrMDA6MDB8MTA5OTg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.0,"target":"MCO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":108,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10998,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10997,"event_id":4415,"slug":"4415-mco-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises MCO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 68%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"58% → 68% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.590137Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1MS41OTAxMzcrMDA6MDB8MTA5OTc","forecast":{"p_pct":"68%","expected_cancellations":10.0,"target":"MCO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":108,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10997,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10889,"event_id":4525,"slug":"4525-mco-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises MCO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 70%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"58% → 70% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.532720Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS41MzI3MjArMDA6MDB8MTA4ODk","forecast":{"p_pct":"70%","expected_cancellations":15.2,"target":"MCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":102,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10889,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10767,"event_id":4362,"slug":"4362-mco-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises MCO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 65%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 65% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:27.897194Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyNy44OTcxOTQrMDA6MDB8MTA3Njc","forecast":{"p_pct":"65%","expected_cancellations":14.4,"target":"MCO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":102,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10767,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10723,"event_id":4638,"slug":"4638-mco-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"MCO: 10 of 34 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 50 departures scheduled from MCO (MCO) between 11:31 AM and 1:01 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 34. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MCO is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:31:50.153566Z","time":"11:31 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:31 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:31:00Z","time":"11:31 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:31 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:31:47.187520Z","time":"11:31 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:31 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjozMTo1MC4xNTM1NjYrMDA6MDB8MTA3MjM","measure":{"chips":[["Next","11:31 AM–1:01 PM EST"],["Tight turns","10 of 34"],["Share","29%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","11:31 AM–1:01 PM EST · 50 departures, aircraft known for 34"],["Tight turns","10 (29%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","2 not taken off · 4 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","DL 511 to CVG at 11:46 AM: aircraft N3737C, inbound DL 511 from CVG (not departed), -179 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 3705 to CLE at 12:10 PM: aircraft N8903H, inbound WN 117 from SAT (not departed), -78 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 942 to MIA at 11:44 AM: aircraft N220WN, inbound WN 639 from BNA (airborne), -45 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 3496 to SJU at 11:43 AM: aircraft N8647A, inbound WN 3169 from MSY (landed), 15 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4515 to BWI at 12:08 PM: aircraft N8305E, inbound WN 241 from ATL (airborne), 24 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10723,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10646,"event_id":4344,"slug":"4344-mco-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among MCO departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 101 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:35.727149Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNS43MjcxNDkrMDA6MDB8MTA2NDY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":14.4,"target":"MCO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":101,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10646,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10320,"event_id":4257,"slug":"4257-mco-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among MCO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 121 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 14 → 11 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:09.800773Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjowOS44MDA3NzMrMDA6MDB8MTAzMjA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.0,"target":"MCO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":121,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":10320,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10317,"event_id":4524,"slug":"4524-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for MCO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 121 departures scheduled from MCO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:09.791800Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjowOS43OTE4MDArMDA6MDB8MTAzMTc","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":11.0,"target":"MCO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":121,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10317,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10077,"event_id":4175,"slug":"4175-mco-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among MCO departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.461247Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC40NjEyNDcrMDA6MDB8MTAwNzc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.9,"target":"MCO departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":101,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10077,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9801,"event_id":4332,"slug":"4332-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO arrivals running late: 100% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 12:04 AM and 1:04 AM EST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:04:49.305410Z","time":"1:04 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:04 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:04 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:04:00Z","time":"1:04 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:04 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:04 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:04:49.086234Z","time":"1:04 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:04 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:04 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjowNDo0OS4zMDU0MTArMDA6MDB8OTgwMQ","measurement":{"window":"12:04 AM–1:04 AM EST","n":13,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":245.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9801,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9768,"event_id":4294,"slug":"4294-mco-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers MCO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 117 departures scheduled from MCO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"48% → 30%; calm-weather level 17%","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.819209Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.362127Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NjozNS44MTkyMDkrMDA6MDB8OTc2OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"30%","expected_cancellations":7.4,"target":"MCO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":117,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9768,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9627,"event_id":4235,"slug":"4235-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 9:31 PM and 10:31 PM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:46.565709Z","time":"10:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:00Z","time":"10:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:45.883923Z","time":"10:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzozMTo0Ni41NjU3MDkrMDA6MDB8OTYyNw","measurement":{"window":"9:31 PM–10:31 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"47%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":279.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9627,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9536,"event_id":4174,"slug":"4174-mco-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among MCO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 30 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.385156Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4zODUxNTYrMDA6MDB8OTUzNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.9,"target":"MCO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":30,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9536,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4wNzY2NzQrMDA6MDB8MTIyNTY","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 24 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among MCO departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 114 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 8 cancellations among MCO departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 102 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 55%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 55% delay risk for MCO departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 55%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among MCO departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 12 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 106 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among MCO departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 90 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for MCO departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Sunday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 45%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MCO\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

MCO arrival delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% → 67%

\n \n

Of 21 arrivals that landed between 11:32 PM and 12:32 AM EST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:32 PM–12:32 AM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 67%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (10)\n 9 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for MCO departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from MCO 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

MCO departure delays worsen: 86% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 70% → 86%

\n \n

Of 14 departures that took off between 10:01 PM and 11:01 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:01 PM–11:01 PM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 86%Typical 47%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (8)\n 7 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among MCO departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 14 → 22 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~22 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among MCO departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 14 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 108 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 68%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises MCO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 68%

\n

What changed: 58% → 68% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 68%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 70%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises MCO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 70%

\n

What changed: 58% → 70% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 70%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 65%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises MCO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 65%

\n

What changed: 55% → 65% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 65%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

MCO: 10 of 34 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n \n \n

Of the 50 departures scheduled from MCO (MCO) between 11:31 AM and 1:01 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 34. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MCO is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

\n \n

Next 11:31 AM–1:01 PM ESTTight turns 10 of 34Share 29%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among MCO departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 101 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 22 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among MCO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 14 → 11 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 121 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 22 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for MCO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 121 departures scheduled from MCO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 47%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among MCO departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 30 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

MCO arrivals running late: 100% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 12:04 AM and 1:04 AM EST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:04 AM–1:04 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 100%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 30 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 30%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers MCO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal

\n

What changed: 48% → 30%; calm-weather level 17%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 117 departures scheduled from MCO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 30%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 32 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

MCO departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 9:31 PM and 10:31 PM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:31 PM–10:31 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 100%Typical 47%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 34 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 34 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 9 cancellations among MCO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 30 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 36 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n Late report\n
\n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"airport=MCO"}