{"items":[{"id":10076,"event_id":4415,"slug":"4415-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 53% delay risk for MCO departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.456842Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC40NTY4NDIrMDA6MDB8MTAwNzY","forecast":{"p_pct":"53%","expected_cancellations":12.2,"target":"MCO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":107,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10076,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9905,"event_id":4362,"slug":"4362-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for MCO departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.562364Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy41NjIzNjQrMDA6MDB8OTkwNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":11.6,"target":"MCO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":101,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9905,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9801,"event_id":4332,"slug":"4332-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO arrivals running late: 100% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 12:04 AM and 1:04 AM EST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:04:49.305410Z","time":"1:04 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:04 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:04 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:04:00Z","time":"1:04 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:04 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:04 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:04:49.086234Z","time":"1:04 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:04 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:04 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjowNDo0OS4zMDU0MTArMDA6MDB8OTgwMQ","measurement":{"window":"12:04 AM–1:04 AM EST","n":13,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":245.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9801,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9768,"event_id":4294,"slug":"4294-mco-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers MCO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 117 departures scheduled from MCO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"48% → 30%; calm-weather level 17%","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.819209Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.362127Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NjozNS44MTkyMDkrMDA6MDB8OTc2OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"30%","expected_cancellations":7.4,"target":"MCO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":117,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9768,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9627,"event_id":4235,"slug":"4235-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 9:31 PM and 10:31 PM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:46.565709Z","time":"10:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:00Z","time":"10:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:45.883923Z","time":"10:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzozMTo0Ni41NjU3MDkrMDA6MDB8OTYyNw","measurement":{"window":"9:31 PM–10:31 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"47%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":279.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9627,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9283,"event_id":4087,"slug":"4087-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 82% delay risk for MCO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from MCO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 82% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.057755Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4wNTc3NTUrMDA6MDB8OTI4Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"82%","expected_cancellations":2.8,"target":"MCO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9283,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9282,"event_id":3927,"slug":"3927-mco-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises MCO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 86%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Friday an average 86% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 86% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.053105Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4wNTMxMDUrMDA6MDB8OTI4Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"86%","expected_cancellations":18.2,"target":"MCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":122,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9282,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9231,"event_id":4049,"slug":"4049-mco-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at MCO","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at MCO (MCO) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:38 PM EST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 3:57 PM EST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:43:48.527607Z","time":"4:43 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:43 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:43 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:38:47.414000Z","time":"4:38 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:38 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:38 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:43:48.485876Z","time":"4:43 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:43 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:43 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo0Mzo0OC41Mjc2MDcrMDA6MDB8OTIzMQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9231,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9115,"event_id":3996,"slug":"3996-mco-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO departures back near normal: 23% late in the last hour","body":"Of 26 departures that took off between 2:23 PM and 3:23 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 52% at worst → 23% now","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:23:17.277499Z","time":"3:23 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:23 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:23 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:23:00Z","time":"3:23 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:23 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:23 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:23:16.341025Z","time":"3:23 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:23 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:23 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDoyMzoxNy4yNzc0OTkrMDA6MDB8OTExNQ","measurement":{"window":"2:23 PM–3:23 PM EST","n":26,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"23%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9115,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8965,"event_id":3942,"slug":"3942-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for MCO departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:39.815018Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:38.542413Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTo1NzozOS44MTUwMTgrMDA6MDB8ODk2NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":1.6,"target":"MCO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":93,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8965,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8964,"event_id":3941,"slug":"3941-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for MCO departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:39.809310Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:38.542413Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTo1NzozOS44MDkzMTArMDA6MDB8ODk2NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":1.8,"target":"MCO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":95,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8964,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8733,"event_id":3765,"slug":"3765-mco-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO arrival delays worsen: 63% late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 arrivals that landed between 11:50 PM and 12:50 AM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 56% → 63%","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:50:50.613033Z","time":"12:50 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:50 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:50 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:50:00Z","time":"12:50 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:50 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:50 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:50:50.415758Z","time":"12:50 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:50 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTo1MDo1MC42MTMwMzMrMDA6MDB8ODczMw","measurement":{"window":"11:50 PM–12:50 AM EST","n":19,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"63%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":22.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8733,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8639,"event_id":3820,"slug":"3820-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO departures running late: 70% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 9:03 PM and 10:03 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 49% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:03:45.340684Z","time":"10:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:03:00Z","time":"10:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:03 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:03:44.895018Z","time":"10:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzowMzo0NS4zNDA2ODQrMDA6MDB8ODYzOQ","measurement":{"window":"9:03 PM–10:03 PM EST","n":20,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"70%","baseline_pct":"49%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":32.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8639,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8495,"event_id":3716,"slug":"3716-mco-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO arrivals back near normal: 27% late in the last hour","body":"Of 30 arrivals that landed between 5:06 PM and 6:06 PM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 58% at worst → 27% now","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:06:02.013624Z","time":"6:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:06:00Z","time":"6:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:06:01.409292Z","time":"6:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMzowNjowMi4wMTM2MjQrMDA6MDB8ODQ5NQ","measurement":{"window":"5:06 PM–6:06 PM EST","n":30,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"27%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8495,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8401,"event_id":3690,"slug":"3690-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for MCO departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.005914Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"39 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"39 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS4wMDU5MTQrMDA6MDB8ODQwMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"MCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":118,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8401,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7828,"event_id":3423,"slug":"3423-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO arrivals running late: 56% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 18 arrivals that landed between 11:52 PM and 12:52 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T05:52:00.796323Z","time":"12:52 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:52 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 05:52 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T05:52:00Z","time":"12:52 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:52 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 05:52 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T05:52:00.306800Z","time":"12:52 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:52 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 05:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwNTo1MjowMC43OTYzMjMrMDA6MDB8NzgyOA","measurement":{"window":"11:52 PM–12:52 AM EST","n":18,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"56%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":23.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7828,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7635,"event_id":3315,"slug":"3315-mco-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO arrivals back near normal: 21% late in the last hour","body":"Of 34 arrivals that landed between 6:44 PM and 7:44 PM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 47% at worst → 21% now","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T00:44:53.890688Z","time":"7:44 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 7:44 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 00:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T00:44:00Z","time":"7:44 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 7:44 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 00:44 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T00:44:53.436558Z","time":"7:44 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 7:44 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 00:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQwMDo0NDo1My44OTA2ODgrMDA6MDB8NzYzNQ","measurement":{"window":"6:44 PM–7:44 PM EST","n":34,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"21%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-3.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7635,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7629,"event_id":3302,"slug":"3302-mco-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO departures back near normal: 21% late in the last hour","body":"Of 28 departures that took off between 5:35 PM and 6:35 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 64% at worst → 21% now","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T23:35:45.202548Z","time":"6:35 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:35 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 23:35 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T23:35:00Z","time":"6:35 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:35 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 23:35 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T23:35:44.672433Z","time":"6:35 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:35 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 23:35 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QyMzozNTo0NS4yMDI1NDgrMDA6MDB8NzYyOQ","measurement":{"window":"5:35 PM–6:35 PM EST","n":28,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"21%","baseline_pct":"38%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":3.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7629,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7466,"event_id":3182,"slug":"3182-mco-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO arrival delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour","body":"Of 18 arrivals that landed between 11:55 PM and 12:55 AM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 52% → 67%","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:55:03.450114Z","time":"12:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:55:00Z","time":"12:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:55 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:55:03.308185Z","time":"12:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNTo1NTowMy40NTAxMTQrMDA6MDB8NzQ2Ng","measurement":{"window":"11:55 PM–12:55 AM EST","n":18,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"67%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":47.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":7466,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7363,"event_id":3091,"slug":"3091-mco-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO departure delays worsen: 81% late in the last hour","body":"Of 31 departures that took off between 7:52 PM and 8:52 PM EST, 25 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 45% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 50% → 81%","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:52:11.109838Z","time":"8:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:52 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:52:00Z","time":"8:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:52 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:52:10.592652Z","time":"8:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMTo1MjoxMS4xMDk4MzgrMDA6MDB8NzM2Mw","measurement":{"window":"7:52 PM–8:52 PM EST","n":31,"late_n":25,"share_pct":"81%","baseline_pct":"45%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":31.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7363,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7303,"event_id":3095,"slug":"3095-mco-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers MCO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 68%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from MCO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"69% → 68% since the 5:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:57:35.855587Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:57:34.900734Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMzo1NzozNS44NTU1ODcrMDA6MDB8NzMwMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"68%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"MCO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7303,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7253,"event_id":3073,"slug":"3073-mco-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises MCO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 71%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 147 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"65% → 71% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:56:00.760254Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:55:59.164561Z","time":"5:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMjo1NjowMC43NjAyNTQrMDA6MDB8NzI1Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"71%","expected_cancellations":2.1,"target":"MCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":147,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7253,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7155,"event_id":3105,"slug":"3105-mco-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"MCO arrivals back near normal: 25% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 arrivals that landed between 2:28 PM and 3:28 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 52% at worst → 25% now","airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:28:38.383167Z","time":"3:28 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 3:28 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:28:00Z","time":"3:28 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 3:28 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:28 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:28:37.995045Z","time":"3:28 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 3:28 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMDoyODozOC4zODMxNjcrMDA6MDB8NzE1NQ","measurement":{"window":"2:28 PM–3:28 PM EST","n":24,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"25%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7155,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7002,"event_id":3072,"slug":"3072-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 53% delay risk for MCO departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 123 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:05.793937Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:02.771516Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNjo1NjowNS43OTM5MzcrMDA6MDB8NzAwMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"53%","expected_cancellations":1.0,"target":"MCO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":123,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7002,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7001,"event_id":3071,"slug":"3071-mco-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for MCO departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MCO"],"metros":["ORLANDO"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:05.787864Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:02.771516Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNjo1NjowNS43ODc4NjQrMDA6MDB8NzAwMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"MCO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":118,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7001,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNjo1NjowNS43ODc4NjQrMDA6MDB8NzAwMQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC40NTY4NDIrMDA6MDB8MTAwNzY","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 53%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 53% delay risk for MCO departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 53%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for MCO departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n New\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

MCO arrivals running late: 100% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 12:04 AM and 1:04 AM EST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:04 AM–1:04 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 100%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 30%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers MCO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal

\n

What changed: 48% → 30%; calm-weather level 17%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 117 departures scheduled from MCO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 30%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

MCO departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 9:31 PM and 10:31 PM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:31 PM–10:31 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 100%Typical 47%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 82%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 82% delay risk for MCO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from MCO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 82% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 82%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 86%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises MCO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 86%

\n

What changed: 49% → 86% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Friday an average 86% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 86%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at MCO

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at MCO (MCO) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:38 PM EST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 3:57 PM EST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

MCO departures back near normal: 23% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 52% at worst → 23% now

\n \n

Of 26 departures that took off between 2:23 PM and 3:23 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 2:23 PM–3:23 PM ESTSample 26 flightsLate 23%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for MCO departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for MCO departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 46%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 30 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MCO\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

MCO arrival delays worsen: 63% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 56% → 63%

\n \n

Of 19 arrivals that landed between 11:50 PM and 12:50 AM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:50 PM–12:50 AM ESTSample 19 flightsLate 63%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 33 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

MCO departures running late: 70% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 20 departures that took off between 9:03 PM and 10:03 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 49% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:03 PM–10:03 PM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 70%Typical 49%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 37 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MCO\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

MCO arrivals back near normal: 27% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 58% at worst → 27% now

\n \n

Of 30 arrivals that landed between 5:06 PM and 6:06 PM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 5:06 PM–6:06 PM ESTSample 30 flightsLate 27%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 39 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for MCO departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

MCO arrivals running late: 56% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 18 arrivals that landed between 11:52 PM and 12:52 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:52 PM–12:52 AM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 56%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MCO\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

MCO arrivals back near normal: 21% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 47% at worst → 21% now

\n \n

Of 34 arrivals that landed between 6:44 PM and 7:44 PM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 6:44 PM–7:44 PM ESTSample 34 flightsLate 21%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

MCO departures back near normal: 21% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 64% at worst → 21% now

\n \n

Of 28 departures that took off between 5:35 PM and 6:35 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 5:35 PM–6:35 PM ESTSample 28 flightsLate 21%Typical 38%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MCO\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

MCO arrival delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 52% → 67%

\n \n

Of 18 arrivals that landed between 11:55 PM and 12:55 AM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:55 PM–12:55 AM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 67%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

MCO departure delays worsen: 81% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% → 81%

\n \n

Of 31 departures that took off between 7:52 PM and 8:52 PM EST, 25 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 45% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:52 PM–8:52 PM ESTSample 31 flightsLate 81%Typical 45%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 68%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers MCO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 68%

\n

What changed: 69% → 68% since the 5:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from MCO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 68%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 71%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises MCO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 71%

\n

What changed: 65% → 71% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 147 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 71%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MCO\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

MCO arrivals back near normal: 25% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 52% at worst → 25% now

\n \n

Of 24 arrivals that landed between 2:28 PM and 3:28 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 2:28 PM–3:28 PM ESTSample 24 flightsLate 25%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 53%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 53% delay risk for MCO departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 123 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 53%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MCO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for MCO departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 47%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MCO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=MCO"}