{"items":[{"id":8796,"event_id":3877,"slug":"3877-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.230931Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yMzA5MzErMDA6MDB8ODc5Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"MDW departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8796,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8720,"event_id":3686,"slug":"3686-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departure delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 55% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 50% → 92%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.970598Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:00Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.289194Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTowNjowOS45NzA1OTgrMDA6MDB8ODcyMA","measurement":{"window":"10:06 PM–11:06 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"92%","baseline_pct":"55%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":46.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8720,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8649,"event_id":3822,"slug":"3822-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway arrival delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 55% → 92%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:30:18.233270Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:30 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:30:00Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:30:17.617479Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:30 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzozMDoxOC4yMzMyNzArMDA6MDB8ODY0OQ","measurement":{"window":"8:30 PM–9:30 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"92%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":34.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8649,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8569,"event_id":3759,"slug":"3759-mdw-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 63%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"69% → 63%; calm-weather level 57%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.778776Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43Nzg3NzYrMDA6MDB8ODU2OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"63%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8569,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8516,"event_id":3756,"slug":"3756-mdw-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Midway: 8 of 27 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 31 departures scheduled from Midway (MDW) between 5:55 PM and 7:25 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 27. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MDW is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:55:17.462890Z","time":"5:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:55:00Z","time":"5:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:55 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:55:15.174710Z","time":"5:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMzo1NToxNy40NjI4OTArMDA6MDB8ODUxNg","measure":{"chips":[["Next","5:55 PM–7:25 PM CST"],["Tight turns","8 of 27"],["Share","30%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","5:55 PM–7:25 PM CST · 31 departures, aircraft known for 27"],["Tight turns","8 (30%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 6 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 380 to STL at 6:29 PM: aircraft N953WN, inbound WN 380 from AUS (airborne), 1 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4410 to RIC at 6:58 PM: aircraft N8571Z, inbound WN 247 from ATL (airborne), 7 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2669 to ATL at 5:58 PM: aircraft N7881A, inbound WN 3175 from MSY (landed), 13 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2042 to BUF at 6:39 PM: aircraft N9019R, inbound WN 3854 from SJC (airborne), 18 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2515 to BWI at 6:06 PM: aircraft N9016S, inbound WN 2515 from LAX (airborne), 21 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8516,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8409,"event_id":3697,"slug":"3697-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 60% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.604840Z","time":"2:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"2:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS42MDQ4NDArMDA6MDB8ODQwOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"60%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8409,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8337,"event_id":3655,"slug":"3655-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:56:12.818788Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:56:11.284165Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNzo1NjoxMi44MTg3ODgrMDA6MDB8ODMzNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"MDW departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8337,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8233,"event_id":3605,"slug":"3605-mdw-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departures back near normal: 17% late in the last hour","body":"Of 23 departures that took off between 8:41 PM and 9:41 PM CST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 100% at worst → 17% now","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T03:41:48.756050Z","time":"9:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 9:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 03:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T03:41:00Z","time":"9:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 9:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 03:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T03:41:47.562624Z","time":"9:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 9:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 03:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMzo0MTo0OC43NTYwNTArMDA6MDB8ODIzMw","measurement":{"window":"8:41 PM–9:41 PM CST","n":23,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"17%","baseline_pct":"51%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8233,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8161,"event_id":3566,"slug":"3566-mdw-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departures back near normal: 28% late in the last hour","body":"Of 18 departures that took off between 1:09 PM and 2:09 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 75% at worst → 28% now","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T20:09:35.277338Z","time":"2:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 20:09 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T20:09:00Z","time":"2:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 20:09 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T20:09:34.573247Z","time":"2:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 20:09 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQyMDowOTozNS4yNzczMzgrMDA6MDB8ODE2MQ","measurement":{"window":"1:09 PM–2:09 PM CST","n":18,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"28%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8161,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8151,"event_id":3560,"slug":"3560-mdw-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 38%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"46% → 38%; calm-weather level 30%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T14:56:08.318548Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 14:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T14:56:07.379067Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 14:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQxNDo1NjowOC4zMTg1NDgrMDA6MDB8ODE1MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"38%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-11 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":53,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-11T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8151,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8150,"event_id":3564,"slug":"3564-mdw-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 29%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 29%; calm-weather level 25%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T14:27:36.368923Z","time":"8:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 14:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T14:27:35.018050Z","time":"8:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 14:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQxNDoyNzozNi4zNjg5MjMrMDA6MDB8ODE1MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"29%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"MDW departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-11 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-11T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8150,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8116,"event_id":3548,"slug":"3548-mdw-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 departures that took off between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM CST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 75% at worst → 0% now","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T01:00:19.364789Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 01:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T01:00:18.696558Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 01:00 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwMTowMDoxOS4zNjQ3ODkrMDA6MDB8ODExNg","measurement":{"window":"6:00 PM–7:00 PM CST","n":24,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"42%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8116,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8106,"event_id":3541,"slug":"3541-mdw-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departures back near normal: 4% late in the last hour","body":"Of 26 departures that took off between 12:57 PM and 1:57 PM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 56% at worst → 4% now","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T19:57:18.624950Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 1:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 19:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T19:57:00Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 1:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 19:57 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T19:57:17.678357Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 1:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 19:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxOTo1NzoxOC42MjQ5NTArMDA6MDB8ODEwNg","measurement":{"window":"12:57 PM–1:57 PM CST","n":26,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"4%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8106,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8014,"event_id":3512,"slug":"3512-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:25 PM and 9:25 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:25:58.348841Z","time":"9:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:25:00Z","time":"9:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:25:57.256444Z","time":"9:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMzoyNTo1OC4zNDg4NDErMDA6MDB8ODAxNA","measurement":{"window":"8:25 PM–9:25 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8014,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8003,"event_id":3502,"slug":"3502-mdw-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway arrivals back near normal: 15% late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 arrivals that landed between 7:32 PM and 8:32 PM CST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 75% at worst → 15% now","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:32:17.144945Z","time":"8:32 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:32 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:32 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:32:00Z","time":"8:32 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:32 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:32 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:32:16.210183Z","time":"8:32 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:32 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:32 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMjozMjoxNy4xNDQ5NDUrMDA6MDB8ODAwMw","measurement":{"window":"7:32 PM–8:32 PM CST","n":20,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"15%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-10.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8003,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8000,"event_id":3489,"slug":"3489-mdw-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 55%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"58% → 55%; calm-weather level 50%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:26:00.639847Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:25:59.042583Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMjoyNjowMC42Mzk4NDcrMDA6MDB8ODAwMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":30,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8000,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7978,"event_id":3484,"slug":"3484-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 64%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"51% → 64% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:57:36.200810Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:57:34.051604Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMzo1NzozNi4yMDA4MTArMDA6MDB8Nzk3OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":41,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7978,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7974,"event_id":3500,"slug":"3500-mdw-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Midway: 11 of 29 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 31 departures scheduled from Midway (MDW) between 5:36 PM and 7:06 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 29. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MDW is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 3 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:36:19.056353Z","time":"5:36 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:36 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:36 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:36:00Z","time":"5:36 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:36 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:36 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:36:16.636349Z","time":"5:36 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:36 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:36 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMzozNjoxOS4wNTYzNTMrMDA6MDB8Nzk3NA","measure":{"chips":[["Next","5:36 PM–7:06 PM CST"],["Tight turns","11 of 29"],["Share","38%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","5:36 PM–7:06 PM CST · 31 departures, aircraft known for 29"],["Tight turns","11 (38%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","3 not taken off · 7 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 4393 to CVG at 6:38 PM: aircraft N7860A, inbound WN 2805 from MCO (airborne), -48 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4246 to BHM at 6:37 PM: aircraft N950WN, inbound WN 489 from GRR (not departed), -17 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 3004 to PIT at 6:46 PM: aircraft N8681M, inbound WN 1353 from BUF (not departed), -11 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1947 to SRQ at 6:47 PM: aircraft N8663A, inbound WN 1109 from MCO (airborne), -6 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2178 to JAX at 6:56 PM: aircraft N8844Q, inbound WN 4263 from TPA (airborne), 14 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7974,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7921,"event_id":3474,"slug":"3474-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 1:23 PM and 2:23 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:23:49.362689Z","time":"2:23 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:23 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:23 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:23:00Z","time":"2:23 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:23 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:23 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:23:47.806478Z","time":"2:23 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:23 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:23 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMDoyMzo0OS4zNjI2ODkrMDA6MDB8NzkyMQ","measurement":{"window":"1:23 PM–2:23 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":22.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7921,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7804,"event_id":3347,"slug":"3347-mdw-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departure delays ease: 44% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 18 departures that took off between 9:09 PM and 10:09 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 83% → 44%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:09:12.876433Z","time":"10:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:09 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:09:00Z","time":"10:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:09 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:09:11.590618Z","time":"10:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:09 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwNDowOToxMi44NzY0MzMrMDA6MDB8NzgwNA","measurement":{"window":"9:09 PM–10:09 PM CST","n":18,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"44%","baseline_pct":"51%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":14.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":7804,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7785,"event_id":3383,"slug":"3383-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway arrival delays worsen: 70% late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 arrivals that landed between 8:13 PM and 9:13 PM CST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 57% → 70%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:13:35.331288Z","time":"9:13 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 9:13 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:13 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:13:00Z","time":"9:13 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 9:13 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:13 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:13:33.697055Z","time":"9:13 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 9:13 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:13 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMzoxMzozNS4zMzEyODgrMDA6MDB8Nzc4NQ","measurement":{"window":"8:13 PM–9:13 PM CST","n":20,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"70%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":22.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7785,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7741,"event_id":3377,"slug":"3377-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 71% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:56:40.021212Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:56:33.560786Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMzo1Njo0MC4wMjEyMTIrMDA6MDB8Nzc0MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"71%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":30,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7741,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7740,"event_id":3376,"slug":"3376-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 69% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Sunday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:56:40.011189Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:56:33.560786Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMzo1Njo0MC4wMTExODkrMDA6MDB8Nzc0MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"69%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7740,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7735,"event_id":3374,"slug":"3374-mdw-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Midway: 11 of 27 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 32 departures scheduled from Midway (MDW) between 5:37 PM and 7:07 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 27. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MDW is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:37:47.787001Z","time":"5:37 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:37 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:37 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:37:00Z","time":"5:37 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:37 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:37 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:37:45.127997Z","time":"5:37 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:37 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:37 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMzozNzo0Ny43ODcwMDErMDA6MDB8NzczNQ","measure":{"chips":[["Next","5:37 PM–7:07 PM CST"],["Tight turns","11 of 27"],["Share","41%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","5:37 PM–7:07 PM CST · 32 departures, aircraft known for 27"],["Tight turns","11 (41%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","2 not taken off · 9 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 380 to STL at 6:27 PM: aircraft N7831B, inbound WN 884 from BUR (airborne), 1 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2902 to BOS at 6:41 PM: aircraft N8970Q, inbound WN 3127 from MSP (airborne), 5 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2897 to BNA at 6:25 PM: aircraft N243WN, inbound WN 2224 from IND (not departed), 8 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4410 to RIC at 6:57 PM: aircraft N9027S, inbound WN 247 from ATL (airborne), 12 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2515 to BWI at 6:06 PM: aircraft N8796L, inbound WN 4723 from STL (airborne), 13 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7735,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7586,"event_id":3290,"slug":"3290-mdw-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departures back near normal: 18% late in the last hour","body":"Of 28 departures that took off between 10:03 AM and 11:03 AM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 26% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 67% at worst → 18% now","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T17:03:41.696370Z","time":"11:03 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:03 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 17:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T17:03:00Z","time":"11:03 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:03 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 17:03 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T17:03:37.989504Z","time":"11:03 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:03 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 17:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNzowMzo0MS42OTYzNzArMDA6MDB8NzU4Ng","measurement":{"window":"10:03 AM–11:03 AM CST","n":28,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"18%","baseline_pct":"16%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7586,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNzowMzo0MS42OTYzNzArMDA6MDB8NzU4Ng","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yMzA5MzErMDA6MDB8ODc5Ng","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 47%Horizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Midway departure delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% → 92%

\n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 55% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:06 PM–11:06 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 92%Typical 55%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Midway arrival delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 55% → 92%

\n \n

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:30 PM–9:30 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 92%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 63%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 63%, near normal

\n

What changed: 69% → 63%; calm-weather level 57%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 63%Horizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Midway: 8 of 27 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n \n \n

Of the 31 departures scheduled from Midway (MDW) between 5:55 PM and 7:25 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 27. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MDW is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

\n \n

Next 5:55 PM–7:25 PM CSTTight turns 8 of 27Share 30%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 60%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 60% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 60%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 45%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 11\n 30 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Midway departures back near normal: 17% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 100% at worst → 17% now

\n \n

Of 23 departures that took off between 8:41 PM and 9:41 PM CST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 8:41 PM–9:41 PM CSTSample 23 flightsLate 17%Typical 51%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 11\n 38 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Midway departures back near normal: 28% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 75% at worst → 28% now

\n \n

Of 18 departures that took off between 1:09 PM and 2:09 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 1:09 PM–2:09 PM CSTSample 18 flightsLate 28%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 11\n 43 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 38%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 38%, near normal

\n

What changed: 46% → 38%; calm-weather level 30%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 38%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 11\n 43 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 29%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 29%, near normal

\n

What changed: 42% → 29%; calm-weather level 25%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 29%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 10\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Midway departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 75% at worst → 0% now

\n \n

Of 24 departures that took off between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM CST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 6:00 PM–7:00 PM CSTSample 24 flightsLate 0%Typical 42%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 10\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Midway departures back near normal: 4% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 56% at worst → 4% now

\n \n

Of 26 departures that took off between 12:57 PM and 1:57 PM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 12:57 PM–1:57 PM CSTSample 26 flightsLate 4%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Midway arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:25 PM and 9:25 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:25 PM–9:25 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MDW\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Midway arrivals back near normal: 15% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 75% at worst → 15% now

\n \n

Of 20 arrivals that landed between 7:32 PM and 8:32 PM CST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 7:32 PM–8:32 PM CSTSample 20 flightsLate 15%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 55%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 55%, near normal

\n

What changed: 58% → 55%; calm-weather level 50%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 55%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 64%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 64%

\n

What changed: 51% → 64% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 64%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Midway: 11 of 29 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n \n \n

Of the 31 departures scheduled from Midway (MDW) between 5:36 PM and 7:06 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 29. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MDW is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 3 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

\n \n

Next 5:36 PM–7:06 PM CSTTight turns 11 of 29Share 38%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Midway departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 1:23 PM and 2:23 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 1:23 PM–2:23 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Midway departure delays ease: 44% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 83% → 44%

\n \n

Of 18 departures that took off between 9:09 PM and 10:09 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:09 PM–10:09 PM CSTSample 18 flightsLate 44%Typical 51%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Midway arrival delays worsen: 70% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 57% → 70%

\n \n

Of 20 arrivals that landed between 8:13 PM and 9:13 PM CST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:13 PM–9:13 PM CSTSample 20 flightsLate 70%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 71%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 71% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 71%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 69%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 69% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Sunday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 69%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Midway: 11 of 27 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n \n \n

Of the 32 departures scheduled from Midway (MDW) between 5:37 PM and 7:07 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 27. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MDW is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

\n \n

Next 5:37 PM–7:07 PM CSTTight turns 11 of 27Share 41%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Midway departures back near normal: 18% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 67% at worst → 18% now

\n \n

Of 28 departures that took off between 10:03 AM and 11:03 AM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 26% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 10:03 AM–11:03 AM CSTSample 28 flightsLate 18%Typical 16%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"airport=MDW"}