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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.664961Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC42NjQ5NjErMDA6MDB8MTAyNjM","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":2.8,"target":"MDW departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10596,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10596,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 53%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:10.291539Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9870,"event_id":4302,"slug":"4302-mdw-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 25%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 19%; calm-weather level 9%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.666353Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS42NjYzNTMrMDA6MDB8OTg2OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"19%","expected_cancellations":2.8,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9869,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9743,"event_id":4302,"slug":"4302-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.694999Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi42OTQ5OTkrMDA6MDB8OTc0Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":3.8,"target":"MDW departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9870,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9870,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 25%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.668982Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9682,"event_id":4277,"slug":"4277-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 AM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:17.289933Z","time":"9:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:15.993642Z","time":"9:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNy4yODk5MzMrMDA6MDB8OTY4Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":3.9,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9869,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9869,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 19%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.666353Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9618,"event_id":4227,"slug":"4227-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 8:15 PM and 9:15 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.796459Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy43OTY0NTkrMDA6MDB8OTYxMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.2,"target":"MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9610,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.605300Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC42MDUzMDArMDA6MDB8OTU1MA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.8,"target":"MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9610,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9610,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.796459Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9502,"event_id":4160,"slug":"4160-mdw-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among Midway departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 41 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.664123Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS42NjQxMjMrMDA6MDB8OTUwMg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.6,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":41,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9502,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9341,"event_id":4111,"slug":"4111-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 92% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 92% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.466414Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC40NjY0MTQrMDA6MDB8OTM0MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"92%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9341,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9340,"event_id":4040,"slug":"4040-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 85%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"62% → 85% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.461944Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC40NjE5NDQrMDA6MDB8OTM0MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"85%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9340,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9222,"event_id":4020,"slug":"4020-mdw-ground-stop","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA no longer lists a ground stop at Midway","body":"The ground stop for flights to Midway (MDW) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 3:30 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 2:52 PM CST.","what_changed":"ground stop no longer listed","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:34:40.891273Z","time":"3:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:34 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:30:44.743000Z","time":"3:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:34:40.861730Z","time":"3:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:34 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTozNDo0MC44OTEyNzMrMDA6MDB8OTIyMg","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9222,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. 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INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS44MTAxNDErMDA6MDB8MTA5NDk","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 19 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 82%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 82%

\n

What changed: 71% → 82% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 82% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 82%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 19 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 76%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 76%

\n

What changed: 56% → 76% since the 8:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Saturday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 76%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 71%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 71%

\n

What changed: 59% → 71% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 71%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 59%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 59%

\n

What changed: 45% → 59% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 59%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 56%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 56%

\n

What changed: 47% → 56% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 56%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 53%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 53%

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What changed: 42% → 53% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 53%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 59%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 59%

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What changed: 57% → 59% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 59%Horizon 9.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Saturday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 57%Horizon 10.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Midway departures 3–6 PM Saturday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 47%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Saturday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 45%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Midway departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 42%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 25%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 25%, near normal

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What changed: 47% → 25%; calm-weather level 13%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 25%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 19%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 19%, near normal

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What changed: 41% → 19%; calm-weather level 9%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 AM Saturday an average 19% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 19%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Midway departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 47%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 41%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 AM Saturday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 AM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 41%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Midway departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 12 departures that took off between 8:15 PM and 9:15 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 8:15 PM–9:15 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 100%Typical 37%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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What changed: about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 7 cancellations among Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n Late report\n
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FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 9 cancellations among Midway departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 41 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 92%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 92% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 92% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 92%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 85%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 85%

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What changed: 62% → 85% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 85%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Ground stop\n MDW\n arrivals\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists a ground stop at Midway

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What changed: ground stop no longer listed

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The ground stop for flights to Midway (MDW) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 3:30 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 2:52 PM CST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 21 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"airport=MDW&mode=all"}