{"items":[{"id":9610,"event_id":4183,"slug":"4183-mdw-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.796459Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy43OTY0NTkrMDA6MDB8OTYxMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.2,"target":"MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9610,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9502,"event_id":4160,"slug":"4160-mdw-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among Midway departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 41 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.664123Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS42NjQxMjMrMDA6MDB8OTUwMg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.6,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":41,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9502,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy43OTY0NTkrMDA6MDB8OTYxMA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"9610\" data-event=\"4183\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy43OTY0NTkrMDA6MDB8OTYxMA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9610\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T02:57:03.796459Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST\">8:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">CST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T02:57:03.796459Z\">13 min ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/MDW\">MDW</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9610\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4183-mdw-cancellation-risk#u-9610\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~4 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>0.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4183-mdw-cancellation-risk#u-9610\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/4183-mdw-cancellation-risk\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/MDW\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View MDW</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4183\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4183-mdw-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"9502\" data-event=\"4160\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS42NjQxMjMrMDA6MDB8OTUwMg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9502\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-13T23:57:19.664123Z\" title=\"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST\">5:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">CST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-13T23:57:19.664123Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/MDW\">MDW</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9502\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4160-mdw-cancellation-risk#u-9502\">Model expects about 9 cancellations among Midway departures 6–9 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 41 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~9 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>0.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4160-mdw-cancellation-risk#u-9502\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/MDW\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View MDW</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4160\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4160-mdw-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=MDW"}