{"items":[{"id":10597,"event_id":4499,"slug":"4499-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 53%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 25%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 19%; calm-weather level 9%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.666353Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS42NjYzNTMrMDA6MDB8OTg2OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"19%","expected_cancellations":2.8,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9869,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9618,"event_id":4227,"slug":"4227-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 8:15 PM and 9:15 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 92% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 92% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 44%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"54% → 44%; calm-weather level 37%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:25:52.727612Z","time":"8:25 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:25 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:25:51.497571Z","time":"8:25 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:25 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNDoyNTo1Mi43Mjc2MTIrMDA6MDB8ODkyOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"MDW departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8929,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8865,"event_id":3877,"slug":"3877-mdw-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 40%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"57% → 40% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:03.374087Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:02.842857Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMTo1NzowMy4zNzQwODcrMDA6MDB8ODg2NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"MDW departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8865,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8864,"event_id":3899,"slug":"3899-mdw-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:03.370577Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:02.842857Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMTo1NzowMy4zNzA1NzcrMDA6MDB8ODg2NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"MDW departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":42,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8864,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8720,"event_id":3686,"slug":"3686-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departure delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 55% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 50% → 92%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.970598Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:00Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.289194Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTowNjowOS45NzA1OTgrMDA6MDB8ODcyMA","measurement":{"window":"10:06 PM–11:06 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"92%","baseline_pct":"55%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":46.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8720,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8649,"event_id":3822,"slug":"3822-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway arrival delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 55% → 92%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:30:18.233270Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:30 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:30:00Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:30:17.617479Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:30 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzozMDoxOC4yMzMyNzArMDA6MDB8ODY0OQ","measurement":{"window":"8:30 PM–9:30 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"92%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":34.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8649,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8569,"event_id":3759,"slug":"3759-mdw-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 63%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"69% → 63%; calm-weather level 57%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.778776Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"39 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43Nzg3NzYrMDA6MDB8ODU2OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"63%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"39 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8569,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8409,"event_id":3697,"slug":"3697-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 60% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:56:12.818788Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"46 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:56:11.284165Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNzo1NjoxMi44MTg3ODgrMDA6MDB8ODMzNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"MDW departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"46 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8337,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8233,"event_id":3605,"slug":"3605-mdw-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departures back near normal: 17% late in the last hour","body":"Of 23 departures that took off between 8:41 PM and 9:41 PM CST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 100% at worst → 17% now","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T03:41:48.756050Z","time":"9:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 9:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 03:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T03:41:00Z","time":"9:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 9:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 03:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T03:41:47.562624Z","time":"9:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 9:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 03:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMzo0MTo0OC43NTYwNTArMDA6MDB8ODIzMw","measurement":{"window":"8:41 PM–9:41 PM CST","n":23,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"17%","baseline_pct":"51%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8233,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8161,"event_id":3566,"slug":"3566-mdw-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departures back near normal: 28% late in the last hour","body":"Of 18 departures that took off between 1:09 PM and 2:09 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 75% at worst → 28% now","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T20:09:35.277338Z","time":"2:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 20:09 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T20:09:00Z","time":"2:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 20:09 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T20:09:34.573247Z","time":"2:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 20:09 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQyMDowOTozNS4yNzczMzgrMDA6MDB8ODE2MQ","measurement":{"window":"1:09 PM–2:09 PM CST","n":18,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"28%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8161,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8151,"event_id":3560,"slug":"3560-mdw-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 38%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"46% → 38%; calm-weather level 30%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T14:56:08.318548Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 14:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T14:56:07.379067Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 14:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQxNDo1NjowOC4zMTg1NDgrMDA6MDB8ODE1MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"38%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-11 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":53,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-11T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8151,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8150,"event_id":3564,"slug":"3564-mdw-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 29%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 29%; calm-weather level 25%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T14:27:36.368923Z","time":"8:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 14:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T14:27:35.018050Z","time":"8:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 14:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQxNDoyNzozNi4zNjg5MjMrMDA6MDB8ODE1MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"29%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"MDW departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-11 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-11T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8150,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8116,"event_id":3548,"slug":"3548-mdw-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 departures that took off between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM CST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 75% at worst → 0% now","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T01:00:19.364789Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 01:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T01:00:18.696558Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 01:00 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwMTowMDoxOS4zNjQ3ODkrMDA6MDB8ODExNg","measurement":{"window":"6:00 PM–7:00 PM CST","n":24,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"42%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8116,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8106,"event_id":3541,"slug":"3541-mdw-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departures back near normal: 4% late in the last hour","body":"Of 26 departures that took off between 12:57 PM and 1:57 PM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 56% at worst → 4% now","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T19:57:18.624950Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 1:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 19:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T19:57:00Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 1:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 19:57 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T19:57:17.678357Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 1:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 19:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxOTo1NzoxOC42MjQ5NTArMDA6MDB8ODEwNg","measurement":{"window":"12:57 PM–1:57 PM CST","n":26,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"4%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8106,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8014,"event_id":3512,"slug":"3512-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:25 PM and 9:25 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:25:58.348841Z","time":"9:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:25:00Z","time":"9:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:25:57.256444Z","time":"9:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMzoyNTo1OC4zNDg4NDErMDA6MDB8ODAxNA","measurement":{"window":"8:25 PM–9:25 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8014,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMzoyNTo1OC4zNDg4NDErMDA6MDB8ODAxNA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzoxMC4zMjE5ODIrMDA6MDB8MTA1OTc","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 17 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 56%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 56%

\n

What changed: 47% → 56% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 56%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 17 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 53%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 53%

\n

What changed: 42% → 53% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 53%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 48 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 59%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 59%

\n

What changed: 57% → 59% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 59%Horizon 9.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 45%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 25%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 25%, near normal

\n

What changed: 47% → 25%; calm-weather level 13%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 25%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 19%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 19%, near normal

\n

What changed: 41% → 19%; calm-weather level 9%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 AM Saturday an average 19% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 19%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Midway departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 8:15 PM and 9:15 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:15 PM–9:15 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 100%Typical 37%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 92%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 92% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 92% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 92%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 85%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 85%

\n

What changed: 62% → 85% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 85%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Midway departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 16 departures that took off between 1:17 PM and 2:17 PM CST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 1:17 PM–2:17 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 62%Typical 24%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 24 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 44%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 44%, near normal

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What changed: 54% → 44%; calm-weather level 37%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 44%Horizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 27 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 40%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 40%

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What changed: 57% → 40% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 40%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 27 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 31%, near normal

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What changed: 42% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 31%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 34 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Midway departure delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 50% → 92%

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Of 12 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 55% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 10:06 PM–11:06 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 92%Typical 55%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 35 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MDW\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Midway arrival delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 55% → 92%

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Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 8:30 PM–9:30 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 92%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 37 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 63%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 63%, near normal

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What changed: 69% → 63%; calm-weather level 57%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 63%Horizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 42 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 60%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 60% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Thursday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 60%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 45 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Thursday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 45%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 11\n 2 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Midway departures back near normal: 17% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 100% at worst → 17% now

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Of 23 departures that took off between 8:41 PM and 9:41 PM CST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 8:41 PM–9:41 PM CSTSample 23 flightsLate 17%Typical 51%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 11\n 2 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Midway departures back near normal: 28% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 75% at worst → 28% now

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Of 18 departures that took off between 1:09 PM and 2:09 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 1:09 PM–2:09 PM CSTSample 18 flightsLate 28%Typical 24%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 11\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 38%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 38%, near normal

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What changed: 46% → 38%; calm-weather level 30%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 38%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 11\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 29%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 29%, near normal

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What changed: 42% → 29%; calm-weather level 25%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 29%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 10\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Midway departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 75% at worst → 0% now

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Of 24 departures that took off between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM CST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 6:00 PM–7:00 PM CSTSample 24 flightsLate 0%Typical 42%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 10\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MDW\n departures\n \n \n
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Midway departures back near normal: 4% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 56% at worst → 4% now

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Of 26 departures that took off between 12:57 PM and 1:57 PM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 12:57 PM–1:57 PM CSTSample 26 flightsLate 4%Typical 24%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MDW\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MDW\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Midway arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:25 PM and 9:25 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 8:25 PM–9:25 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MDW\n \n \n
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