{"items":[{"id":10840,"event_id":4561,"slug":"4561-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 71%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"59% → 71% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.453343Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC40NTMzNDMrMDA6MDB8MTA4NDA","forecast":{"p_pct":"71%","expected_cancellations":4.1,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10840,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10839,"event_id":4498,"slug":"4498-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 59%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 59% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.447492Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC40NDc0OTIrMDA6MDB8MTA4Mzk","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":2.6,"target":"MDW departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":20,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10839,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10597,"event_id":4499,"slug":"4499-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 56% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:10.321982Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:05.975812Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzoxMC4zMjE5ODIrMDA6MDB8MTA1OTc","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"MDW departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":30,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10597,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10596,"event_id":4497,"slug":"4497-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 53%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 53% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:10.291539Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:05.975812Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzoxMC4yOTE1MzkrMDA6MDB8MTA1OTY","forecast":{"p_pct":"53%","expected_cancellations":3.4,"target":"MDW departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":39,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10596,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9870,"event_id":4302,"slug":"4302-mdw-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 25%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 25%; calm-weather level 13%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.668982Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS42Njg5ODIrMDA6MDB8OTg3MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"25%","expected_cancellations":3.0,"target":"MDW departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9870,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9869,"event_id":4277,"slug":"4277-mdw-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 19%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 AM Saturday an average 19% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 19%; calm-weather level 9%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.666353Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS42NjYzNTMrMDA6MDB8OTg2OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"19%","expected_cancellations":2.8,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9869,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9618,"event_id":4227,"slug":"4227-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 8:15 PM and 9:15 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:15:23.455711Z","time":"9:15 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:15 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:15 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:15:00Z","time":"9:15 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:15 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:15:22.699108Z","time":"9:15 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:15 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:15 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzoxNToyMy40NTU3MTErMDA6MDB8OTYxOA","measurement":{"window":"8:15 PM–9:15 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"37%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":317.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9618,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9610,"event_id":4183,"slug":"4183-mdw-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.796459Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy43OTY0NTkrMDA6MDB8OTYxMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.2,"target":"MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9610,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9502,"event_id":4160,"slug":"4160-mdw-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among Midway departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 41 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.664123Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS42NjQxMjMrMDA6MDB8OTUwMg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.6,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":41,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9502,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9341,"event_id":4111,"slug":"4111-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 92% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 92% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.466414Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC40NjY0MTQrMDA6MDB8OTM0MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"92%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9341,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9340,"event_id":4040,"slug":"4040-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 85%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"62% → 85% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.461944Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC40NjE5NDQrMDA6MDB8OTM0MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"85%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9340,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9222,"event_id":4020,"slug":"4020-mdw-ground-stop","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA no longer lists a ground stop at Midway","body":"The ground stop for flights to Midway (MDW) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 3:30 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 2:52 PM CST.","what_changed":"ground stop no longer listed","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:34:40.891273Z","time":"3:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:34 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:30:44.743000Z","time":"3:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:34:40.861730Z","time":"3:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:34 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTozNDo0MC44OTEyNzMrMDA6MDB8OTIyMg","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9222,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9112,"event_id":4006,"slug":"4006-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 1:17 PM and 2:17 PM CST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:17:09.510735Z","time":"2:17 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:17 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:17 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:17:00Z","time":"2:17 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:17 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:17 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:17:08.180774Z","time":"2:17 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:17 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:17 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDoxNzowOS41MTA3MzUrMDA6MDB8OTExMg","measurement":{"window":"1:17 PM–2:17 PM CST","n":16,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"62%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":22.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9112,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9063,"event_id":3985,"slug":"3985-mdw-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Midway: 8 of 28 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 29 departures scheduled from Midway (MDW) between 12:35 PM and 2:05 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 28. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MDW is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:35:06.480368Z","time":"12:35 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:35 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:35 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:35:00Z","time":"12:35 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:35 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:35 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:35:04.869985Z","time":"12:35 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:35 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:35 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODozNTowNi40ODAzNjgrMDA6MDB8OTA2Mw","measure":{"chips":[["Next","12:35 PM–2:05 PM CST"],["Tight turns","8 of 28"],["Share","29%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","12:35 PM–2:05 PM CST · 29 departures, aircraft known for 28"],["Tight turns","8 (29%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","2 not taken off · 0 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 258 to LGA at 12:50 PM: aircraft N285WN, inbound WN 1070 from BWI (not departed), -92 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 333 to PHL at 1:40 PM: aircraft N923WN, inbound WN 333 from BNA (not departed), -9 min to turn"],["Tightest","DL 2417 to ATL at 12:41 PM: aircraft N359NB, inbound DL 2417 from ATL (landed), 16 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 246 to BUF at 12:52 PM: aircraft N464WN, inbound WN 1269 from CMH (landed), 19 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4336 to CHS at 12:43 PM: aircraft N8833L, inbound WN 379 from AUS (landed), 24 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9063,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8929,"event_id":3900,"slug":"3900-mdw-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 44%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"54% → 44%; calm-weather level 37%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:25:52.727612Z","time":"8:25 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:25 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:25:51.497571Z","time":"8:25 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:25 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNDoyNTo1Mi43Mjc2MTIrMDA6MDB8ODkyOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"MDW departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8929,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8865,"event_id":3877,"slug":"3877-mdw-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 40%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"57% → 40% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:03.374087Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:02.842857Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMTo1NzowMy4zNzQwODcrMDA6MDB8ODg2NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"MDW departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8865,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8864,"event_id":3899,"slug":"3899-mdw-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:03.370577Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:02.842857Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMTo1NzowMy4zNzA1NzcrMDA6MDB8ODg2NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"MDW departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":42,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8864,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8720,"event_id":3686,"slug":"3686-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway departure delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 55% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 50% → 92%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.970598Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:00Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.289194Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTowNjowOS45NzA1OTgrMDA6MDB8ODcyMA","measurement":{"window":"10:06 PM–11:06 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"92%","baseline_pct":"55%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":46.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8720,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8649,"event_id":3822,"slug":"3822-mdw-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Midway arrival delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 55% → 92%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:30:18.233270Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:30 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:30:00Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:30:17.617479Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:30 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzozMDoxOC4yMzMyNzArMDA6MDB8ODY0OQ","measurement":{"window":"8:30 PM–9:30 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"92%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":34.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8649,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8569,"event_id":3759,"slug":"3759-mdw-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 63%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"69% → 63%; calm-weather level 57%","airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.778776Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"39 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"39 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43Nzg3NzYrMDA6MDB8ODU2OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"63%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8569,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8516,"event_id":3756,"slug":"3756-mdw-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Midway: 8 of 27 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 31 departures scheduled from Midway (MDW) between 5:55 PM and 7:25 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 27. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MDW is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:55:17.462890Z","time":"5:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:55:00Z","time":"5:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:55 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:55:15.174710Z","time":"5:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMzo1NToxNy40NjI4OTArMDA6MDB8ODUxNg","measure":{"chips":[["Next","5:55 PM–7:25 PM CST"],["Tight turns","8 of 27"],["Share","30%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","5:55 PM–7:25 PM CST · 31 departures, aircraft known for 27"],["Tight turns","8 (30%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 6 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 380 to STL at 6:29 PM: aircraft N953WN, inbound WN 380 from AUS (airborne), 1 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4410 to RIC at 6:58 PM: aircraft N8571Z, inbound WN 247 from ATL (airborne), 7 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2669 to ATL at 5:58 PM: aircraft N7881A, inbound WN 3175 from MSY (landed), 13 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2042 to BUF at 6:39 PM: aircraft N9019R, inbound WN 3854 from SJC (airborne), 18 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2515 to BWI at 6:06 PM: aircraft N9016S, inbound WN 2515 from LAX (airborne), 21 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8516,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMzo1NToxNy40NjI4OTArMDA6MDB8ODUxNg","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC40NTMzNDMrMDA6MDB8MTA4NDA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n MDW\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 71%

\n ▲ 59% → 71% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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Model raises Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 59%

\n ▲ 45% → 59% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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Model raises Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 56%

\n ▲ 47% → 56% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 53%

\n ▲ 42% → 53% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 25%, near normal

\n 47% → 25%; calm-weather level 13%\n
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 19%, near normal

\n 41% → 19%; calm-weather level 9%\n
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Midway departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 100% late\n
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Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n ▼ about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast\n
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FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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Model expects about 9 cancellations among Midway departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n ~9 cancellations\n
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Model forecasts 92% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n 92% risk\n
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Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 85%

\n ▲ 62% → 85% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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FAA no longer lists a ground stop at Midway

\n ground stop no longer listed\n
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FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

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FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

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Midway departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 62% late\n
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Midway: 8 of 28 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n Tight turns 8 of 28\n
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 44%, near normal

\n 54% → 44%; calm-weather level 37%\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n MDW\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 40%

\n ▼ 57% → 40% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n MDW\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 31%, near normal

\n 42% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n MDW\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Midway departure delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 50% → 92%\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n MDW\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Midway arrival delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 55% → 92%\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n MDW\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 63%, near normal

\n 69% → 63%; calm-weather level 57%\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n MDW\n DEP\n INBOUND\n RESOLVED\n \n

Midway: 8 of 27 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n Tight turns 8 of 27\n
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"],"filters":"airport=MDW&view=terminal"}