{"items":[{"id":10186,"event_id":4391,"slug":"4391-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.132431Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4xMzI0MzErMDA6MDB8MTAxODY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.2,"target":"MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":89,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10186,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10001,"event_id":4343,"slug":"4343-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 14 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 107 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 14 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:30.681933Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:29.779944Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC42ODE5MzMrMDA6MDB8MTAwMDE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":14.3,"target":"MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":107,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10001,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10000,"event_id":4390,"slug":"4390-mia-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:30.673907Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:29.779944Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC42NzM5MDcrMDA6MDB8MTAwMDA","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":7.5,"target":"MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":88,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10000,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9955,"event_id":4259,"slug":"4259-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 108 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 16 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.702987Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.231271Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC43MDI5ODcrMDA6MDB8OTk1NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":16.0,"target":"MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":108,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9955,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9954,"event_id":4207,"slug":"4207-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 11 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.699698Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.231271Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC42OTk2OTgrMDA6MDB8OTk1NA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.9,"target":"MIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":84,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":9954,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9953,"event_id":4379,"slug":"4379-mia-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.694826Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.231271Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC42OTQ4MjYrMDA6MDB8OTk1Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":10.0,"target":"MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":107,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9953,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9952,"event_id":4258,"slug":"4258-mia-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 50%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"36% → 50% since the 1:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.688824Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.231271Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC42ODg4MjQrMDA6MDB8OTk1Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":16.0,"target":"MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":108,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9952,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9757,"event_id":4240,"slug":"4240-mia-taxi-in","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"Miami arrivals reaching the ramp a little faster: 13% took 13+ min, still above normal","body":"Of 15 aircraft that landed at Miami (MIA) between 11:39 PM and 12:39 AM EST and have reached the ramp, 2 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 2.7 minutes; the median was 5 minutes. Usually 4% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.","what_changed":"slow share 50% → 13%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:54:33.861524Z","time":"12:54 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:54 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:39:00Z","time":"12:39 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:39 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:39 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:54:32.648997Z","time":"12:54 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:54 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NDozMy44NjE1MjQrMDA6MDB8OTc1Nw","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","11:39 PM–12:39 AM EST"],["Sample","15 arrivals"],["Slow","13%"],["Usually","4%"]],"rows":[["Landings","11:39 PM–12:39 AM EST · 15 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","2 (13%) took 13+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","4% usually · typical taxi-in 2.7 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","5.0 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9757,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9634,"event_id":4147,"slug":"4147-mia-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami arrival delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:52 PM and 10:52 PM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 50% → 92%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:52:09.408227Z","time":"10:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:52 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:52:00Z","time":"10:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:52 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:52:09.233464Z","time":"10:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1MjowOS40MDgyMjcrMDA6MDB8OTYzNA","measurement":{"window":"9:52 PM–10:52 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"92%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":198.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9634,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9539,"event_id":4136,"slug":"4136-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 70 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.425036Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC40MjUwMzYrMDA6MDB8OTUzOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":13.6,"target":"MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":70,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9539,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9538,"event_id":3960,"slug":"3960-mia-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 87%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"76% → 87% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.420560Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC40MjA1NjArMDA6MDB8OTUzOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"87%","expected_cancellations":13.6,"target":"MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":70,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9538,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9516,"event_id":3955,"slug":"3955-mia-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami departure delays worsen: 100% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 7:25 PM and 8:25 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 50% → 100%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:25:24.396290Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:25:00Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:25:24.094107Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNToyNC4zOTYyOTArMDA6MDB8OTUxNg","measurement":{"window":"7:25 PM–8:25 PM EST","n":12,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"34%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":132.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":9516,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9387,"event_id":4118,"slug":"4118-mia-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Miami","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Miami (MIA) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:15 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:09 PM EST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:18:22.660313Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:18 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:15:54.563000Z","time":"5:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:18:22.628529Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:18 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjoxODoyMi42NjAzMTMrMDA6MDB8OTM4Nw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9387,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9370,"event_id":4054,"slug":"4054-mia-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Miami","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Miami (MIA) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:00 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:36 PM EST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.244208Z","time":"5:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:48.360000Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.187331Z","time":"5:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjowMzo1MS4yNDQyMDgrMDA6MDB8OTM3MA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9370,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9291,"event_id":4089,"slug":"4089-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 12 cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.107397Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4xMDczOTcrMDA6MDB8OTI5MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":12.0,"target":"MIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9291,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9289,"event_id":3959,"slug":"3959-mia-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 83%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 83% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.099923Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4wOTk5MjMrMDA6MDB8OTI4OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"83%","expected_cancellations":12.0,"target":"MIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9289,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9159,"event_id":2759,"slug":"2759-mia-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Miami","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Miami (MIA) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 3:52 PM EST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 8:17 PM EST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.872123Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:53.519000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNS44NzIxMjMrMDA6MDB8OTE1OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9159,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9005,"event_id":3958,"slug":"3958-mia-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:56:50.281231Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:56:47.532580Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNjo1Njo1MC4yODEyMzErMDA6MDB8OTAwNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":1.6,"target":"MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":92,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9005,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9004,"event_id":3957,"slug":"3957-mia-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 94 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:56:50.264991Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:56:47.532580Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNjo1Njo1MC4yNjQ5OTErMDA6MDB8OTAwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":1.7,"target":"MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":94,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9004,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8872,"event_id":3797,"slug":"3797-mia-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami arrivals back near normal: 18% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 6:52 AM and 7:52 AM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 86% at worst → 18% now","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:52:08.428553Z","time":"7:52 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:52 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:52 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:52:00Z","time":"7:52 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:52 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:52 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:52:08.167657Z","time":"7:52 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:52 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMjo1MjowOC40Mjg1NTMrMDA6MDB8ODg3Mg","measurement":{"window":"6:52 AM–7:52 AM EST","n":17,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"18%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-12.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8872,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8716,"event_id":3846,"slug":"3846-mia-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami departure delays worsen: 72% late in the last hour","body":"Of 18 departures that took off between 11:06 PM and 12:06 AM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 62% → 72%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.728979Z","time":"12:06 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:00Z","time":"12:06 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.289194Z","time":"12:06 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTowNjowOS43Mjg5NzkrMDA6MDB8ODcxNg","measurement":{"window":"11:06 PM–12:06 AM EST","n":18,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"72%","baseline_pct":"28%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":50.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8716,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTowNjowOS43Mjg5NzkrMDA6MDB8ODcxNg","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4xMzI0MzErMDA6MDB8MTAxODY","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 17 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 14 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 14 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 107 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 16 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 108 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~16 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 11 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 50%

\n

What changed: 36% → 50% since the 1:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Slow taxi-in\n MIA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Miami arrivals reaching the ramp a little faster: 13% took 13+ min, still above normal

\n

What changed: slow share 50% → 13%

\n \n

Of 15 aircraft that landed at Miami (MIA) between 11:39 PM and 12:39 AM EST and have reached the ramp, 2 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 2.7 minutes; the median was 5 minutes. Usually 4% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.

\n \n

Landed 11:39 PM–12:39 AM ESTSample 15 arrivalsSlow 13%Usually 4%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MIA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Miami arrival delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% → 92%

\n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:52 PM and 10:52 PM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:52 PM–10:52 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 92%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 70 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 87%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 87%

\n

What changed: 76% → 87% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 87%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Miami departure delays worsen: 100% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% → 100%

\n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 7:25 PM and 8:25 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:25 PM–8:25 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 100%Typical 34%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n Late report\n
\n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at Miami

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What changed: departure delays no longer listed

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FAA-reported departure delays at Miami (MIA) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:15 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:09 PM EST.

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\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at Miami

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What changed: departure delays no longer listed

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FAA-reported departure delays at Miami (MIA) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:00 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:36 PM EST.

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\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 12 cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 83%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 83%

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What changed: 55% → 83% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 83%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at Miami

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What changed: departure delays no longer listed

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FAA-reported departure delays at Miami (MIA) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 3:52 PM EST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 8:17 PM EST.

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\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 19 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 51%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 19 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 94 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 46%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 23 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MIA\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Miami arrivals back near normal: 18% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 86% at worst → 18% now

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Of 17 arrivals that landed between 6:52 AM and 7:52 AM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 6:52 AM–7:52 AM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 18%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 31 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Miami departure delays worsen: 72% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 62% → 72%

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Of 18 departures that took off between 11:06 PM and 12:06 AM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 11:06 PM–12:06 AM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 72%Typical 28%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"airport=MIA"}