{"items":[{"id":10186,"event_id":4391,"slug":"4391-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.132431Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4xMzI0MzErMDA6MDB8MTAxODY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.2,"target":"MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":89,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10186,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10075,"event_id":4391,"slug":"4391-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 10 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 88 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 14 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 107 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 108 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 16 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.702987Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.231271Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC43MDI5ODcrMDA6MDB8OTk1NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":16.0,"target":"MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":108,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9955,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9954,"event_id":4207,"slug":"4207-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 50%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 8 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.508792Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy41MDg3OTIrMDA6MDB8OTkwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.6,"target":"MIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":84,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":9954,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9954,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.699698Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9825,"event_id":4343,"slug":"4343-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 106 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 109 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 11 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.339853Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS4zMzk4NTMrMDA6MDB8OTgyNA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.0,"target":"MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":109,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9955,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9955,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.702987Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9823,"event_id":4258,"slug":"4258-mia-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 36%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 36% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.336265Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS4zMzYyNjUrMDA6MDB8OTgyMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"36%","expected_cancellations":11.0,"target":"MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":109,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9952,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9952,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 50%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.688824Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9767,"event_id":4259,"slug":"4259-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 11 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 108 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 11 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.813085Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.362127Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NjozNS44MTMwODUrMDA6MDB8OTc2Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.6,"target":"MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":108,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9955,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9955,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.702987Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9766,"event_id":4207,"slug":"4207-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 8 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.809831Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.362127Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NjozNS44MDk4MzErMDA6MDB8OTc2Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.5,"target":"MIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":84,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":9954,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9954,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.699698Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9757,"event_id":4240,"slug":"4240-mia-taxi-in","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"Miami arrivals reaching the ramp a little faster: 13% took 13+ min, still above normal","body":"Of 15 aircraft that landed at Miami (MIA) between 11:39 PM and 12:39 AM EST and have reached the ramp, 2 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 2.7 minutes; the median was 5 minutes. Usually 4% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.","what_changed":"slow share 50% → 13%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:54:33.861524Z","time":"12:54 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:54 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:39:00Z","time":"12:39 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:39 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:39 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:54:32.648997Z","time":"12:54 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:54 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NDozMy44NjE1MjQrMDA6MDB8OTc1Nw","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","11:39 PM–12:39 AM EST"],["Sample","15 arrivals"],["Slow","13%"],["Usually","4%"]],"rows":[["Landings","11:39 PM–12:39 AM EST · 15 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","2 (13%) took 13+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","4% usually · typical taxi-in 2.7 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","5.0 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9757,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9661,"event_id":4259,"slug":"4259-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 12 cancellations among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 108 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:17.179925Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:15.993642Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNy4xNzk5MjUrMDA6MDB8OTY2MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":12.4,"target":"MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":108,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9955,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9955,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.702987Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9660,"event_id":4207,"slug":"4207-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 12 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:17.177206Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:15.993642Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNy4xNzcyMDYrMDA6MDB8OTY2MA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.7,"target":"MIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":84,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":9954,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9954,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.699698Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9659,"event_id":4258,"slug":"4258-mia-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:17.173874Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:15.993642Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNy4xNzM4NzQrMDA6MDB8OTY1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":12.4,"target":"MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":108,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9952,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9952,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 50%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.688824Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9634,"event_id":4147,"slug":"4147-mia-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami arrival delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:52 PM and 10:52 PM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 50% → 92%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:52:09.408227Z","time":"10:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:52 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:52:00Z","time":"10:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:52 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:52:09.233464Z","time":"10:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1MjowOS40MDgyMjcrMDA6MDB8OTYzNA","measurement":{"window":"9:52 PM–10:52 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"92%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":198.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9634,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9632,"event_id":4240,"slug":"4240-mia-taxi-in","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"Miami arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 50% took 13+ min after landing","body":"Of 12 aircraft that landed at Miami (MIA) between 9:26 PM and 10:26 PM EST and have reached the ramp, 6 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 2.7 minutes; the median was 12.8 minutes. Usually 4% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:41:59.982457Z","time":"10:41 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:41 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:26:00Z","time":"10:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:41:58.304172Z","time":"10:41 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:41 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo0MTo1OS45ODI0NTcrMDA6MDB8OTYzMg","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","9:26 PM–10:26 PM EST"],["Sample","12 arrivals"],["Slow","50%"],["Usually","4%"]],"rows":[["Landings","9:26 PM–10:26 PM EST · 12 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","6 (50%) took 13+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","4% usually · typical taxi-in 2.7 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","12.8 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9757,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9757,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Miami arrivals reaching the ramp a little faster: 13% took 13+ min, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:54:33.861524Z","time":"12:54 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:54 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:54 UTC"}}},{"id":9590,"event_id":4207,"slug":"4207-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.597296Z","time":"9:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"9:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy41OTcyOTYrMDA6MDB8OTU5MA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.6,"target":"MIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":84,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":9954,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9954,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.699698Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9539,"event_id":4136,"slug":"4136-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 70 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.425036Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC40MjUwMzYrMDA6MDB8OTUzOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":13.6,"target":"MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":70,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9539,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9538,"event_id":3960,"slug":"3960-mia-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 87%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"76% → 87% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.420560Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC40MjA1NjArMDA6MDB8OTUzOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"87%","expected_cancellations":13.6,"target":"MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":70,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9538,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC40MjA1NjArMDA6MDB8OTUzOA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4xMzI0MzErMDA6MDB8MTAxODY","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 27 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 10 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 8 cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 88 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 14 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 14 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 107 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 16 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 108 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~16 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 11 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 50%

\n

What changed: 36% → 50% since the 1:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 8 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 7 cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 106 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 11 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 109 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 36%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 36%

\n

What changed: 47% → 36% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 36%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 11 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 12 → 11 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 108 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 12 → 8 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Slow taxi-in\n MIA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Miami arrivals reaching the ramp a little faster: 13% took 13+ min, still above normal

\n

What changed: slow share 50% → 13%

\n \n

Of 15 aircraft that landed at Miami (MIA) between 11:39 PM and 12:39 AM EST and have reached the ramp, 2 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 2.7 minutes; the median was 5 minutes. Usually 4% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.

\n \n

Landed 11:39 PM–12:39 AM ESTSample 15 arrivalsSlow 13%Usually 4%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n \n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 12 cancellations among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 108 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 12 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Miami departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 47%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MIA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Miami arrival delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% → 92%

\n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:52 PM and 10:52 PM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:52 PM–10:52 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 92%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n \n Slow taxi-in\n MIA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Miami arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 50% took 13+ min after landing

\n \n \n

Of 12 aircraft that landed at Miami (MIA) between 9:26 PM and 10:26 PM EST and have reached the ramp, 6 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 2.7 minutes; the median was 12.8 minutes. Usually 4% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.

\n \n

Landed 9:26 PM–10:26 PM ESTSample 12 arrivalsSlow 50%Usually 4%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance\n Timeline (2)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 8 cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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What changed: about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 70 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 87%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 87%

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What changed: 76% → 87% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 87%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"airport=MIA&mode=all"}