{"items":[{"id":5709,"event_id":2519,"slug":"2519-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 5 cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Monday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 83 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Monday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 4. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T22:57:36.415399Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T22:57:32.708531Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQyMjo1NzozNi40MTUzOTkrMDA6MDB8NTcwOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.0,"target":"MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":83,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5709,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5708,"event_id":2518,"slug":"2518-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 14 cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Monday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 151 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 16. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Monday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 130 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 2","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T11:58:25.510368Z","time":"6:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 11:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T11:58:22.008372Z","time":"6:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 11:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxMTo1ODoyNS41MTAzNjgrMDA6MDB8NTI5Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.3,"target":"MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":130,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5292,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5291,"event_id":2341,"slug":"2341-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Monday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 144 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Monday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 122 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 2","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T06:59:04.723667Z","time":"1:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 06:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T06:59:01.654914Z","time":"1:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 06:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQwNjo1OTowNC43MjM2NjcrMDA6MDB8NTE5Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.4,"target":"MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled)","horizon_h":13.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":122,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5192,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5191,"event_id":2136,"slug":"2136-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Monday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 130 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Monday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 122 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 3","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T01:31:07.513137Z","time":"8:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 8:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 01:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T01:31:03.912101Z","time":"8:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 8:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 01:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQwMTozMTowNy41MTMxMzcrMDA6MDB8NTAwOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.0,"target":"MIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-02 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":122,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5009,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4841,"event_id":1994,"slug":"1994-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 89 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 2","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-01T21:27:46.768870Z","time":"4:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 4:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 21:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-01T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-01T21:27:44.315983Z","time":"4:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 4:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 21:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMVQyMToyNzo0Ni43Njg4NzArMDA6MDB8NDg0MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":1.8,"target":"MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":89,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-01T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":4841,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4642,"event_id":2078,"slug":"2078-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 132 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 3. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-01T15:57:38.992869Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-01T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-01T15:57:38.064900Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMVQxNTo1NzozOC45OTI4NjkrMDA6MDB8NDY0Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.8,"target":"MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":132,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-01T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":4642,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4567,"event_id":1988,"slug":"1988-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Sunday to about 4","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 161 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 4","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-01T13:27:01.779350Z","time":"8:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 8:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 13:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-01T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-01T13:27:00.238796Z","time":"8:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 8:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 13:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMVQxMzoyNzowMS43NzkzNTArMDA6MDB8NDU2Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.8,"target":"MIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":161,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-01T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":4567,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4530,"event_id":1975,"slug":"1975-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 118 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 3","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-01T10:26:18.149356Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 5:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 10:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-01T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-01T10:26:17.458616Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 5:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 10:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMVQxMDoyNjoxOC4xNDkzNTYrMDA6MDB8NDUzMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.5,"target":"MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":118,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-01T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":4530,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3526,"event_id":1553,"slug":"1553-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 60 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 2","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-27T14:26:03.205842Z","time":"10:26 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 10:26 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 14:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-27T13:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 9:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-27T14:25:59.816498Z","time":"10:25 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 10:25 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 14:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yN1QxNDoyNjowMy4yMDU4NDIrMDA6MDB8MzUyNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.1,"target":"MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-27 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":60,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-27T13:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 9:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":3526,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3514,"event_id":1501,"slug":"1501-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Tuesday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 96 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 3","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-27T13:26:41.913736Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 9:26 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-27T12:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 8:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-27T13:26:40.481624Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 9:26 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yN1QxMzoyNjo0MS45MTM3MzYrMDA6MDB8MzUxNA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.6,"target":"MIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":96,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-27T12:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 8:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":3514,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3504,"event_id":1476,"slug":"1476-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Tuesday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 69 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 4 → 3","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-27T11:56:45.229016Z","time":"7:56 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 7:56 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-27T11:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 7:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-27T11:56:44.659300Z","time":"7:56 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 7:56 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yN1QxMTo1Njo0NS4yMjkwMTYrMDA6MDB8MzUwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.7,"target":"MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":69,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-27T11:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 7:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":3504,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3486,"event_id":1442,"slug":"1442-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Tuesday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 76 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 2","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-27T08:57:41.957161Z","time":"4:57 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 4:57 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 08:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-27T08:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 4:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-27T08:57:36.650877Z","time":"4:57 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 4:57 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 08:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yN1QwODo1Nzo0MS45NTcxNjErMDA6MDB8MzQ4Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.3,"target":"MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":76,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-27T08:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 4:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":3486,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3451,"event_id":1415,"slug":"1415-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 82 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 3","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-27T05:57:40.444084Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 1:57 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 05:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-27T05:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 1:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-27T05:57:39.875736Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 1:57 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 05:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yN1QwNTo1Nzo0MC40NDQwODQrMDA6MDB8MzQ1MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.0,"target":"MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-27 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":82,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-27T05:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 27","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Tue Oct 27, 1:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-27 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":3451,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3353,"event_id":1419,"slug":"1419-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Tuesday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 68 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 4 → 3","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-26T22:56:59.514375Z","time":"6:56 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 6:56 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-26T22:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 6:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-26T22:56:57.784714Z","time":"6:56 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 6:56 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 22:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yNlQyMjo1Njo1OS41MTQzNzUrMDA6MDB8MzM1Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.7,"target":"MIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)","horizon_h":11.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-26T22:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 6:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":3353,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3196,"event_id":1334,"slug":"1334-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Monday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Sunday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 2","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-25T11:57:31.426042Z","time":"7:57 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 25","ago":"19 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 25, 7:57 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-25 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-25T11:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 25","ago":"19 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 25, 7:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-25 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-25T11:57:29.727674Z","time":"7:57 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 25","ago":"19 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 25, 7:57 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-25 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yNVQxMTo1NzozMS40MjYwNDIrMDA6MDB8Mjg5OA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.4,"target":"MIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-25 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":101,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-25T11:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 25","ago":"19 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 25, 7:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-25 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":2898,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":630,"event_id":223,"slug":"223-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 58 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Sunday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 97 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 4 → 2","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-18T13:26:36.088098Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"26 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 9:26 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-18T12:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"26 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 8:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-18T13:26:35.035092Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"26 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 9:26 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xOFQxMzoyNjozNi4wODgwOTgrMDA6MDB8NjE5","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.3,"target":"MIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-18T12:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"26 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 8:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":619,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":618,"event_id":116,"slug":"116-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 3 → 3","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-18T13:26:36.081983Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"26 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 9:26 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-18T12:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"26 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 8:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-18T13:26:35.035092Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"26 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 9:26 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xOFQxMzoyNjozNi4wODE5ODMrMDA6MDB8NjE4","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.6,"target":"MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":85,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-18T12:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"26 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 8:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":10,"latest_update_id":618,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":10,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":603,"event_id":159,"slug":"159-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 3 → 3","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-18T11:56:39.531243Z","time":"7:56 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"26 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 7:56 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-18T11:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"26 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 7:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-18T11:56:38.725038Z","time":"7:56 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"26 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 7:56 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xOFQxMTo1NjozOS41MzEyNDMrMDA6MDB8NjAz","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.6,"target":"MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":70,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-18T11:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 18","ago":"26 days ago","full":"Sun Oct 18, 7:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-18 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":603,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":595,"event_id":64,"slug":"64-mia-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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\n
\n \n EST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 5 cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 83 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Monday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 4. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 14 cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 151 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 16. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 2\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Monday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 7 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 130 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 2\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Monday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 8 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 144 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 2\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Monday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 6 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 122 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 13.0 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 2\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Monday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 7 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 130 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 1\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Monday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 6 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 122 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 1\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 6 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 89 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 4.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 1\n 12 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 7 cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 132 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 3. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 1\n 12 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Sunday to about 4

\n

What changed: about 8 → 4

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 161 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 1\n 12 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 9 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 118 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 27\n 17 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 6 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 60 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 10.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 27\n 17 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Tuesday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 8 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 96 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 27\n 17 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Tuesday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 4 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 69 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 27\n 17 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Tuesday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 6 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 76 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 27\n 17 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 6 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 82 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 26\n 17 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Tuesday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 4 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 68 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 11.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 26\n 18 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Monday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 3 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 25\n 19 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Monday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 5 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 75 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 13.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 25\n 19 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Sunday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 6 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 18\n 26 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 4 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 58 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 10.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 18\n 26 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Sunday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 4 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 97 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 18\n 26 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 3 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 85 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (10)\n 9 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 18\n 26 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 3 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 70 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 18\n 26 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Sunday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 5 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 86 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (8)\n 7 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=MIA"}