{"items":[{"id":8748,"event_id":3797,"slug":"3797-mia-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami arrival delays ease: 58% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 12:21 AM and 1:21 AM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 81% → 58%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:21:32.395245Z","time":"1:21 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:21 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:21 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:21:00Z","time":"1:21 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:21 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:21 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:21:32.038193Z","time":"1:21 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:21 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:21 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjoyMTozMi4zOTUyNDUrMDA6MDB8ODc0OA","measurement":{"window":"12:21 AM–1:21 AM EST","n":12,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"58%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":85.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8748,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8716,"event_id":3846,"slug":"3846-mia-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami departure delays worsen: 72% late in the last hour","body":"Of 18 departures that took off between 11:06 PM and 12:06 AM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 62% → 72%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.728979Z","time":"12:06 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:00Z","time":"12:06 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.289194Z","time":"12:06 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTowNjowOS43Mjg5NzkrMDA6MDB8ODcxNg","measurement":{"window":"11:06 PM–12:06 AM EST","n":18,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"72%","baseline_pct":"28%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":50.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8716,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8528,"event_id":3640,"slug":"3640-mia-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami departures back near normal: 24% late in the last hour","body":"Of 33 departures that took off between 6:20 PM and 7:20 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 89% at worst → 24% now","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:20:07.845806Z","time":"7:20 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:20 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:20 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:20:00Z","time":"7:20 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:20 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:20 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:20:07.447843Z","time":"7:20 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:20 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:20 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMDoyMDowNy44NDU4MDYrMDA6MDB8ODUyOA","measurement":{"window":"6:20 PM–7:20 PM EST","n":33,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"24%","baseline_pct":"34%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":0.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8528,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8420,"event_id":3653,"slug":"3653-mia-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 35%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 35%; calm-weather level 27%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:56:47.979621Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:56:46.376340Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDo1Njo0Ny45Nzk2MjErMDA6MDB8ODQyMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"35%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":67,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8420,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8331,"event_id":3652,"slug":"3652-mia-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Miami departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:56:12.574497Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:56:11.284165Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNzo1NjoxMi41NzQ0OTcrMDA6MDB8ODMzMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"MIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":111,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8331,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8330,"event_id":3651,"slug":"3651-mia-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:56:12.551599Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:56:11.284165Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNzo1NjoxMi41NTE1OTkrMDA6MDB8ODMzMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":89,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8330,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8234,"event_id":3610,"slug":"3610-mia-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour","body":"Of 30 departures that took off between 9:43 PM and 10:43 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 74% at worst → 7% now","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T03:43:51.272371Z","time":"10:43 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 10:43 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 03:43 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T03:43:00Z","time":"10:43 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 10:43 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 03:43 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T03:43:50.571170Z","time":"10:43 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 10:43 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 03:43 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMzo0Mzo1MS4yNzIzNzErMDA6MDB8ODIzNA","measurement":{"window":"9:43 PM–10:43 PM EST","n":30,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"7%","baseline_pct":"30%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8234,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8169,"event_id":3570,"slug":"3570-mia-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami departures back near normal: 13% late in the last hour","body":"Of 23 departures that took off between 3:37 PM and 4:37 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 56% at worst → 13% now","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:37:35.807753Z","time":"4:37 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 4:37 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:37 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:37:00Z","time":"4:37 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 4:37 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:37 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:37:35.247235Z","time":"4:37 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 4:37 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:37 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQyMTozNzozNS44MDc3NTMrMDA6MDB8ODE2OQ","measurement":{"window":"3:37 PM–4:37 PM EST","n":23,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"13%","baseline_pct":"30%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8169,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7856,"event_id":3387,"slug":"3387-mia-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami arrivals back near normal: 7% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:51 AM and 6:51 AM EST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 65% at worst → 7% now","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T11:51:20.939375Z","time":"6:51 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:51 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 11:51 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T11:51:00Z","time":"6:51 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:51 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 11:51 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T11:51:20.165644Z","time":"6:51 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:51 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 11:51 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxMTo1MToyMC45MzkzNzUrMDA6MDB8Nzg1Ng","measurement":{"window":"5:51 AM–6:51 AM EST","n":15,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"7%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-9.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7856,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7654,"event_id":3324,"slug":"3324-mia-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami departures running late: 56% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 34 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM EST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T04:06:47.795715Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 04:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T04:06:00Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 04:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T04:06:47.383957Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 04:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQwNDowNjo0Ny43OTU3MTUrMDA6MDB8NzY1NA","measurement":{"window":"10:06 PM–11:06 PM EST","n":34,"late_n":19,"share_pct":"56%","baseline_pct":"30%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":18.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7654,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7649,"event_id":3318,"slug":"3318-mia-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami arrivals back near normal: 22% late in the last hour","body":"Of 27 arrivals that landed between 9:17 PM and 10:17 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 50% at worst → 22% now","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T03:17:26.794299Z","time":"10:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 10:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 03:17 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T03:17:00Z","time":"10:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 10:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 03:17 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T03:17:25.748888Z","time":"10:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 10:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 03:17 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQwMzoxNzoyNi43OTQyOTkrMDA6MDB8NzY0OQ","measurement":{"window":"9:17 PM–10:17 PM EST","n":27,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"22%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-12.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7649,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7624,"event_id":3300,"slug":"3300-mia-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 40%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 40%; calm-weather level 33%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:58:00.668568Z","time":"5:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:57:58.588475Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QyMjo1ODowMC42Njg1NjgrMDA6MDB8NzYyNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":93,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7624,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7621,"event_id":3291,"slug":"3291-mia-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami departures back near normal: 20% late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 4:18 PM and 5:18 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 79% at worst → 20% now","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:18:04.168346Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:18 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:18 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:18:00Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:18 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:18 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:18:03.437420Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:18 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:18 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QyMjoxODowNC4xNjgzNDYrMDA6MDB8NzYyMQ","measurement":{"window":"4:18 PM–5:18 PM EST","n":20,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"20%","baseline_pct":"30%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7621,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7591,"event_id":3299,"slug":"3299-mia-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T17:56:24.856781Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T17:56:20.781301Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNzo1NjoyNC44NTY3ODErMDA6MDB8NzU5MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":118,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7591,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7545,"event_id":3210,"slug":"3210-mia-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami arrivals back near normal: 6% late in the last hour","body":"Of 32 arrivals that landed between 7:41 AM and 8:41 AM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 92% at worst → 6% now","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T13:41:23.066770Z","time":"8:41 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 8:41 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 13:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T13:41:00Z","time":"8:41 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 8:41 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 13:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T13:41:21.492716Z","time":"8:41 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 8:41 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 13:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxMzo0MToyMy4wNjY3NzArMDA6MDB8NzU0NQ","measurement":{"window":"7:41 AM–8:41 AM EST","n":32,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"6%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":7545,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7539,"event_id":3267,"slug":"3267-mia-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 38%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 116 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 38%; calm-weather level 31%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T13:27:02.596606Z","time":"8:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 8:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 13:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T13:27:01.677923Z","time":"8:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 8:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 13:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxMzoyNzowMi41OTY2MDYrMDA6MDB8NzUzOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"38%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":116,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7539,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7513,"event_id":3262,"slug":"3262-mia-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 30%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 147 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"48% → 30%; calm-weather level 28%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:59:42.550021Z","time":"5:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:59:36.897287Z","time":"5:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxMDo1OTo0Mi41NTAwMjErMDA6MDB8NzUxMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"30%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":147,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7513,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7512,"event_id":3261,"slug":"3261-mia-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 21%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 162 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 21% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 21%; calm-weather level 21%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:59:42.428629Z","time":"5:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:59:36.897287Z","time":"5:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxMDo1OTo0Mi40Mjg2MjkrMDA6MDB8NzUxMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"21%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":162,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7512,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7327,"event_id":3200,"slug":"3200-mia-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami departures running late: 55% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 33 departures that took off between 6:54 PM and 7:54 PM EST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T00:54:46.293918Z","time":"7:54 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:54 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 00:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T00:54:00Z","time":"7:54 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:54 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 00:54 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T00:54:45.872808Z","time":"7:54 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:54 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 00:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMDo1NDo0Ni4yOTM5MTgrMDA6MDB8NzMyNw","measurement":{"window":"6:54 PM–7:54 PM EST","n":33,"late_n":18,"share_pct":"55%","baseline_pct":"34%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":22.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7327,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6886,"event_id":2981,"slug":"2981-mia-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami arrivals back near normal: 14% late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 6:45 AM and 7:45 AM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 54% at worst → 14% now","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T12:45:09.519937Z","time":"7:45 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:45 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 12:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T12:45:00Z","time":"7:45 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:45 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 12:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T12:45:09.307768Z","time":"7:45 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:45 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 12:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxMjo0NTowOS41MTk5MzcrMDA6MDB8Njg4Ng","measurement":{"window":"6:45 AM–7:45 AM EST","n":14,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"14%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-16.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6886,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6797,"event_id":2979,"slug":"2979-mia-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami departure delays worsen: 69% late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 11:05 PM and 12:05 AM EST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 54% → 69%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T05:06:05.730293Z","time":"12:06 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 12:06 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 05:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T05:05:00Z","time":"12:05 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 12:05 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 05:05 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T05:05:54.919476Z","time":"12:05 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 12:05 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 05:05 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQwNTowNjowNS43MzAyOTMrMDA6MDB8Njc5Nw","measurement":{"window":"11:05 PM–12:05 AM EST","n":16,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"69%","baseline_pct":"28%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":52.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6797,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6718,"event_id":2884,"slug":"2884-mia-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 35%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 35%; calm-weather level 32%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T01:26:28.547685Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 01:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T01:26:24.823136Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 01:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQwMToyNjoyOC41NDc2ODUrMDA6MDB8NjcxOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"35%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":90,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6718,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6604,"event_id":2863,"slug":"2863-mia-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 36%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Thursday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"46% → 36%; calm-weather level 28%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T14:27:11.588862Z","time":"9:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 9:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 14:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T14:27:10.652185Z","time":"9:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 9:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 14:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxNDoyNzoxMS41ODg4NjIrMDA6MDB8NjYwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"36%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":122,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6604,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6597,"event_id":2860,"slug":"2860-mia-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 134 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Thursday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"33% → 32%; calm-weather level 24%","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T13:25:57.372414Z","time":"8:25 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:25 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 13:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T13:25:55.871472Z","time":"8:25 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:25 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 13:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxMzoyNTo1Ny4zNzI0MTQrMDA6MDB8NjU5Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":134,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":6597,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6596,"event_id":2833,"slug":"2833-mia-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Miami arrivals back near normal: 12% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 6:51 AM and 7:51 AM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 76% at worst → 12% now","airports":["MIA"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T12:51:16.523298Z","time":"7:51 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 7:51 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 12:51 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T12:51:00Z","time":"7:51 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 7:51 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 12:51 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T12:51:16.243596Z","time":"7:51 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 7:51 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 12:51 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxMjo1MToxNi41MjMyOTgrMDA6MDB8NjU5Ng","measurement":{"window":"6:51 AM–7:51 AM EST","n":17,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"12%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-11.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":6596,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxMjo1MToxNi41MjMyOTgrMDA6MDB8NjU5Ng","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjoyMTozMi4zOTUyNDUrMDA6MDB8ODc0OA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n MIA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Miami arrival delays ease: 58% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 81% → 58%

\n \n

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 12:21 AM and 1:21 AM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:21 AM–1:21 AM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Miami departure delays worsen: 72% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 62% → 72%

\n \n

Of 18 departures that took off between 11:06 PM and 12:06 AM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:06 PM–12:06 AM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 72%Typical 28%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Miami departures back near normal: 24% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 89% at worst → 24% now

\n \n

Of 33 departures that took off between 6:20 PM and 7:20 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 6:20 PM–7:20 PM ESTSample 33 flightsLate 24%Typical 34%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 35%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 35%, near normal

\n

What changed: 44% → 35%; calm-weather level 27%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 35%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Miami departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 47%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 45%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 11\n 30 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Miami departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 74% at worst → 7% now

\n \n

Of 30 departures that took off between 9:43 PM and 10:43 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 9:43 PM–10:43 PM ESTSample 30 flightsLate 7%Typical 30%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 11\n 36 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Miami departures back near normal: 13% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 56% at worst → 13% now

\n \n

Of 23 departures that took off between 3:37 PM and 4:37 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 3:37 PM–4:37 PM ESTSample 23 flightsLate 13%Typical 30%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MIA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Miami arrivals back near normal: 7% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 65% at worst → 7% now

\n \n

Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:51 AM and 6:51 AM EST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 5:51 AM–6:51 AM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 7%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Miami departures running late: 56% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 34 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM EST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 10:06 PM–11:06 PM ESTSample 34 flightsLate 56%Typical 30%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MIA\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Miami arrivals back near normal: 22% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 50% at worst → 22% now

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Of 27 arrivals that landed between 9:17 PM and 10:17 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 9:17 PM–10:17 PM ESTSample 27 flightsLate 22%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 40%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 40%, near normal

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What changed: 47% → 40%; calm-weather level 33%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 40%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Miami departures back near normal: 20% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 79% at worst → 20% now

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Of 20 departures that took off between 4:18 PM and 5:18 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 4:18 PM–5:18 PM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 20%Typical 30%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 48%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MIA\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Miami arrivals back near normal: 6% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 92% at worst → 6% now

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Of 32 arrivals that landed between 7:41 AM and 8:41 AM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 7:41 AM–8:41 AM ESTSample 32 flightsLate 6%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 38%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 38%, near normal

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What changed: 47% → 38%; calm-weather level 31%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 116 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 38%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 30%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 30%, near normal

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What changed: 48% → 30%; calm-weather level 28%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 147 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 30%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 21%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 21%, near normal

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What changed: 42% → 21%; calm-weather level 21%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 162 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 21% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 21%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Miami departures running late: 55% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 33 departures that took off between 6:54 PM and 7:54 PM EST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 6:54 PM–7:54 PM ESTSample 33 flightsLate 55%Typical 34%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MIA\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Miami arrivals back near normal: 14% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 54% at worst → 14% now

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Of 14 arrivals that landed between 6:45 AM and 7:45 AM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 6:45 AM–7:45 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 14%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Miami departure delays worsen: 69% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 54% → 69%

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Of 16 departures that took off between 11:05 PM and 12:05 AM EST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 11:05 PM–12:05 AM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 69%Typical 28%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 35%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 35%, near normal

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What changed: 45% → 35%; calm-weather level 32%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 35%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 36%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 36%, near normal

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What changed: 46% → 36%; calm-weather level 28%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Thursday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 36%Horizon 5.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 32%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n MIA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 32%, near normal

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What changed: 33% → 32%; calm-weather level 24%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 134 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Thursday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 32%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n MIA\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Miami arrivals back near normal: 12% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 76% at worst → 12% now

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Of 17 arrivals that landed between 6:51 AM and 7:51 AM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 6:51 AM–7:51 AM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 12%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MIA\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=MIA"}