{"items":[{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9489,"event_id":4137,"slug":"4137-msp-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 104 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 15 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.559569Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS41NTk1NjkrMDA6MDB8OTQ4OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":15.3,"target":"MSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":104,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9489,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9447,"event_id":4052,"slug":"4052-msp-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Minneapolis arrivals back near normal: 5% late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 arrivals that landed between 4:18 PM and 5:18 PM CST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 60% at worst → 5% now","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:18:12.273822Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:18 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:18:00Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:18 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:18:11.377989Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:18 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzoxODoxMi4yNzM4MjIrMDA6MDB8OTQ0Nw","measurement":{"window":"4:18 PM–5:18 PM CST","n":20,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"5%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-7.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9447,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9427,"event_id":4137,"slug":"4137-msp-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 107 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:57:31.936564Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:57:30.715189Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo1NzozMS45MzY1NjQrMDA6MDB8OTQyNw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.6,"target":"MSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":107,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9489,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9489,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.559569Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9304,"event_id":4093,"slug":"4093-msp-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 81% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.164605Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4xNjQ2MDUrMDA6MDB8OTMwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"81%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"MSP departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9304,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9303,"event_id":4092,"slug":"4092-msp-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 79% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.162550Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4xNjI1NTArMDA6MDB8OTMwMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"79%","expected_cancellations":4.6,"target":"MSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":107,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9303,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9200,"event_id":4052,"slug":"4052-msp-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Minneapolis arrivals running late: 60% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 arrivals that landed between 1:59 PM and 2:59 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:52.029871Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:00Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.432181Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1Mi4wMjk4NzErMDA6MDB8OTIwMA","measurement":{"window":"1:59 PM–2:59 PM CST","n":15,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"60%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":17.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9447,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9447,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Minneapolis arrivals back near normal: 5% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:18:12.273822Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:18 UTC"}}},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9176,"event_id":3903,"slug":"3903-msp-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"34% → 31%; calm-weather level 25%","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.374639Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy4zNzQ2MzkrMDA6MDB8OTE3Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"MSP departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":69,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9176,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9133,"event_id":4011,"slug":"4011-msp-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Minneapolis departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 1:33 PM and 2:33 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:33:40.546399Z","time":"2:33 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:33 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:33:00Z","time":"2:33 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:33 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:33:39.867755Z","time":"2:33 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:33 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDozMzo0MC41NDYzOTkrMDA6MDB8OTEzMw","measurement":{"window":"1:33 PM–2:33 PM CST","n":16,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":27.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9133,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9052,"event_id":3951,"slug":"3951-msp-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Minneapolis arrivals back near normal: 7% late in the last hour","body":"Of 30 arrivals that landed between 11:00 AM and 12:00 PM CST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 44% at worst → 7% now","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:21.526227Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:21.119584Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODowMDoyMS41MjYyMjcrMDA6MDB8OTA1Mg","measurement":{"window":"11:00 AM–12:00 PM CST","n":30,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"7%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-11.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9052,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9024,"event_id":3905,"slug":"3905-msp-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Minneapolis departures back near normal: 9% late in the last hour","body":"Of 44 departures that took off between 10:13 AM and 11:13 AM CST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 27% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 67% at worst → 9% now","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:13:12.350973Z","time":"11:13 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:13 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:13 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:13:00Z","time":"11:13 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:13 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:13 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:13:11.882280Z","time":"11:13 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:13 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:13 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzoxMzoxMi4zNTA5NzMrMDA6MDB8OTAyNA","measurement":{"window":"10:13 AM–11:13 AM CST","n":44,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"9%","baseline_pct":"17%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9024,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8990,"event_id":3951,"slug":"3951-msp-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Minneapolis arrivals running late: 44% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:32 AM and 10:32 AM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:32:20.298891Z","time":"10:32 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:32 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:32 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:32:00Z","time":"10:32 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:32 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:32 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:32:18.828735Z","time":"10:32 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:32 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:32 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNjozMjoyMC4yOTg4OTErMDA6MDB8ODk5MA","measurement":{"window":"9:32 AM–10:32 AM CST","n":16,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"44%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":7.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9052,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9052,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Minneapolis arrivals back near normal: 7% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:21.526227Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"}}},{"id":8896,"event_id":3903,"slug":"3903-msp-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Minneapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 34%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Friday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"46% → 34% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.354565Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:44.385825Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4zNTQ1NjUrMDA6MDB8ODg5Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"34%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"MSP departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":69,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9176,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9176,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 31%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.374639Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8895,"event_id":3902,"slug":"3902-msp-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.352154Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:44.385825Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4zNTIxNTQrMDA6MDB8ODg5NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"MSP departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":95,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8895,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8873,"event_id":3905,"slug":"3905-msp-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Minneapolis departures running late: 47% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 departures that took off between 5:58 AM and 6:58 AM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:58:14.232355Z","time":"6:58 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:58 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:58:00Z","time":"6:58 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:58 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:58 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:58:13.786581Z","time":"6:58 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:58 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMjo1ODoxNC4yMzIzNTUrMDA6MDB8ODg3Mw","measurement":{"window":"5:58 AM–6:58 AM CST","n":17,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"47%","baseline_pct":"8%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":14.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9024,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9024,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Minneapolis departures back near normal: 9% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:13:12.350973Z","time":"11:13 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:13 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:13 UTC"}}},{"id":8862,"event_id":3903,"slug":"3903-msp-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:03.337648Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:02.842857Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMTo1NzowMy4zMzc2NDgrMDA6MDB8ODg2Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"MSP departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":69,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9176,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9176,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 31%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.374639Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8861,"event_id":3902,"slug":"3902-msp-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:03.333475Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:02.842857Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMTo1NzowMy4zMzM0NzUrMDA6MDB8ODg2MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"MSP departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":95,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8895,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8895,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 31%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.352154Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"}}},{"id":8718,"event_id":3824,"slug":"3824-msp-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Minneapolis departure delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 75% → 50%","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.818922Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:00Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.289194Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTowNjowOS44MTg5MjIrMDA6MDB8ODcxOA","measurement":{"window":"10:06 PM–11:06 PM CST","n":16,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":24.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8718,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8698,"event_id":3828,"slug":"3828-msp-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Minneapolis arrival delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 9:35 PM and 10:35 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 69% → 50%","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:35:32.721959Z","time":"10:35 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:35 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:35 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:35:00Z","time":"10:35 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:35 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:35 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:35:32.281002Z","time":"10:35 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:35 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:35 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDozNTozMi43MjE5NTkrMDA6MDB8ODY5OA","measurement":{"window":"9:35 PM–10:35 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":23.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8698,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8687,"event_id":3828,"slug":"3828-msp-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Minneapolis arrival delays worsen: 69% late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:15 PM and 10:15 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 44% → 69%","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:15:11.079788Z","time":"10:15 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:15 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:15 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:15:00Z","time":"10:15 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:15 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:15:10.735856Z","time":"10:15 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:15 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:15 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDoxNToxMS4wNzk3ODgrMDA6MDB8ODY4Nw","measurement":{"window":"9:15 PM–10:15 PM CST","n":16,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"69%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":23.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8698,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8698,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Minneapolis arrival delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:35:32.721959Z","time":"10:35 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:35 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:35 UTC"}}},{"id":8656,"event_id":3828,"slug":"3828-msp-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Minneapolis arrivals running late: 44% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 18 arrivals that landed between 8:50 PM and 9:50 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:50:39.665030Z","time":"9:50 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:50 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:50 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:50:00Z","time":"9:50 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:50 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:50 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:50:39.376108Z","time":"9:50 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:50 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1MDozOS42NjUwMzArMDA6MDB8ODY1Ng","measurement":{"window":"8:50 PM–9:50 PM CST","n":18,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"44%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":12.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8698,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8698,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Minneapolis arrival delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:35:32.721959Z","time":"10:35 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:35 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:35 UTC"}}},{"id":8653,"event_id":3824,"slug":"3824-msp-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Minneapolis departure delays worsen: 75% late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 8:38 PM and 9:38 PM CST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 48% → 75%","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:38:26.990824Z","time":"9:38 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:38 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:38 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:38:00Z","time":"9:38 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:38 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:38 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:38:26.608840Z","time":"9:38 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:38 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:38 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzozODoyNi45OTA4MjQrMDA6MDB8ODY1Mw","measurement":{"window":"8:38 PM–9:38 PM CST","n":20,"late_n":15,"share_pct":"75%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":91.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8718,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8718,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Minneapolis departure delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.818922Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"}}},{"id":8644,"event_id":3824,"slug":"3824-msp-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Minneapolis departures running late: 48% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 31 departures that took off between 8:18 PM and 9:18 PM CST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:18:05.627214Z","time":"9:18 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:18 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:18 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:18:00Z","time":"9:18 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:18 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:18 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:18:05.242308Z","time":"9:18 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:18 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:18 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzoxODowNS42MjcyMTQrMDA6MDB8ODY0NA","measurement":{"window":"8:18 PM–9:18 PM CST","n":31,"late_n":15,"share_pct":"48%","baseline_pct":"20%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":12.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8718,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8718,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Minneapolis departure delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.818922Z","time":"11:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"}}}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzoxODowNS42MjcyMTQrMDA6MDB8ODY0NA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n NEW · LATE\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n MSP\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n ▲ about 8 → 15 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n MSP\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Minneapolis arrivals back near normal: 5% late in the last hour

\n late share 60% at worst → 5% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n MSP\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model expects about 8 cancellations among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n ~8 cancellations\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n MSP\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 81% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n 81% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n MSP\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 79% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n 79% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n MSP\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Minneapolis arrivals running late: 60% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 60% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n \n A+D\n RESTRICT\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n MSP\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 31%, near normal

\n 34% → 31%; calm-weather level 25%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n MSP\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Minneapolis departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 50% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n MSP\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Minneapolis arrivals back near normal: 7% late in the last hour

\n late share 44% at worst → 7% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n MSP\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Minneapolis departures back near normal: 9% late in the last hour

\n late share 67% at worst → 9% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n MSP\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Minneapolis arrivals running late: 44% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 44% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n MSP\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Updated model puts Minneapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 34%

\n ▼ 46% → 34% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n MSP\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 31%, near normal

\n 44% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n MSP\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Minneapolis departures running late: 47% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 47% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n MSP\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n 46% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n MSP\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 44% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n MSP\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Minneapolis departure delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 75% → 50%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n MSP\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Minneapolis arrival delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 69% → 50%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n MSP\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Minneapolis arrival delays worsen: 69% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 44% → 69%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n MSP\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Minneapolis arrivals running late: 44% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 44% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n MSP\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Minneapolis departure delays worsen: 75% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 48% → 75%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n MSP\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Minneapolis departures running late: 48% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 48% late\n
\n \n
"],"filters":"airport=MSP&mode=all&view=terminal"}