{"items":[{"id":12797,"event_id":4951,"slug":"4951-msp-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 118 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 13 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T16:56:47.305251Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T16:56:45.098764Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNjo1Njo0Ny4zMDUyNTErMDA6MDB8MTI3OTc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":13.1,"target":"MSP departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":118,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":12797,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12585,"event_id":5163,"slug":"5163-msp-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 105 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:56:28.049361Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:56:27.165075Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNDo1NjoyOC4wNDkzNjErMDA6MDB8MTI1ODU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.7,"target":"MSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":105,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12585,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12584,"event_id":5162,"slug":"5162-msp-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among Minneapolis departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 76 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:56:28.046828Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:56:27.165075Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNDo1NjoyOC4wNDY4MjgrMDA6MDB8MTI1ODQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.7,"target":"MSP departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":76,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12584,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12583,"event_id":4846,"slug":"4846-msp-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 109 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 11 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:56:28.044036Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:56:27.165075Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNDo1NjoyOC4wNDQwMzYrMDA6MDB8MTI1ODM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.4,"target":"MSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":109,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":9,"latest_update_id":12583,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":9,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12388,"event_id":5058,"slug":"5058-msp-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Minneapolis departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 76 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 3","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:38.311158Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:37.113811Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoyNjozOC4zMTExNTgrMDA6MDB8MTIzODg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.9,"target":"MSP departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":76,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12388,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12264,"event_id":4789,"slug":"4789-msp-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 11 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.121856Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4xMjE4NTYrMDA6MDB8MTIyNjQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.8,"target":"MSP departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":88,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12264,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11334,"event_id":4652,"slug":"4652-msp-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 94 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 18 → 11 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:56:11.317856Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:56:10.342678Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMjo1NjoxMS4zMTc4NTYrMDA6MDB8MTEzMzQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.0,"target":"MSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":94,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":11334,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11202,"event_id":4675,"slug":"4675-msp-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 7 among Minneapolis departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 62 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 7 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:14.726948Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:11.529419Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDo1NzoxNC43MjY5NDgrMDA6MDB8MTEyMDI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.3,"target":"MSP departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":62,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11202,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10909,"event_id":4465,"slug":"4465-msp-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 86 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.617055Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS42MTcwNTUrMDA6MDB8MTA5MDk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.2,"target":"MSP departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":86,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10909,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10578,"event_id":4296,"slug":"4296-msp-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 10 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:10.117844Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:05.975812Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzoxMC4xMTc4NDQrMDA6MDB8MTA1Nzg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.5,"target":"MSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":103,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10578,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10208,"event_id":4214,"slug":"4214-msp-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.250567Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4yNTA1NjcrMDA6MDB8MTAyMDg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.0,"target":"MSP departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":88,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10208,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9489,"event_id":4137,"slug":"4137-msp-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 104 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 15 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["MSP"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.559569Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS41NTk1NjkrMDA6MDB8OTQ4OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":15.3,"target":"MSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":104,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9489,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNjo1Njo0Ny4zMDUyNTErMDA6MDB8MTI3OTc","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MSP\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 13 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 118 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~13 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View MSP\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n MSP\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 105 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MSP\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n MSP\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Minneapolis departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 76 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View MSP\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MSP\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 11 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 109 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (9)\n 8 earlier matching updates\n View MSP\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n MSP\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Minneapolis departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 5 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 76 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 7.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MSP\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MSP\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 11 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View MSP\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n MSP\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 18 → 11 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 94 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View MSP\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 22 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MSP\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 7 among Minneapolis departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 7 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 62 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MSP\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MSP\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 86 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MSP\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 28 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MSP\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 10 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MSP\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 31 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MSP\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View MSP\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 43 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n MSP\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 15 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 104 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View MSP\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=MSP"}