{"items":[{"id":10164,"event_id":4409,"slug":"4409-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 84 among O'Hare departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 84 of the 221 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 67 → 84 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.936612Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozMy45MzY2MTIrMDA6MDB8MTAxNjQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":84.4,"target":"ORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":221,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10164,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10163,"event_id":4288,"slug":"4288-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 87 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 87 of the 238 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 221 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"51% → 61% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.890151Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozMy44OTAxNTErMDA6MDB8MTAxNjI","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":84.4,"target":"ORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":221,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10162,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10057,"event_id":4359,"slug":"4359-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 90 among O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 90 of the 217 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (42%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 19 → 90 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.269694Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4yNjk2OTQrMDA6MDB8MTAwNTc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":90.2,"target":"ORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":217,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10057,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10055,"event_id":4190,"slug":"4190-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 102 among O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 102 of the 234 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 25 → 102 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.260687Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4yNjA2ODcrMDA6MDB8MTAwNTU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":101.9,"target":"ORD departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":234,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10055,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10053,"event_id":4386,"slug":"4386-ord-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 217 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 61% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.253744Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4yNTM3NDQrMDA6MDB8MTAwNTM","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":90.2,"target":"ORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":217,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10053,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10052,"event_id":4385,"slug":"4385-ord-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 58%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 237 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"53% → 58% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.250434Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4yNTA0MzQrMDA6MDB8MTAwNTI","forecast":{"p_pct":"58%","expected_cancellations":96.8,"target":"ORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":237,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10052,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10051,"event_id":4407,"slug":"4407-ord-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 234 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 AM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.241779Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4yNDE3NzkrMDA6MDB8MTAwNTE","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":101.9,"target":"ORD departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":234,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10051,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9882,"event_id":4287,"slug":"4287-ord-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 237 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 26%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 233 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 AM Saturday an average 26% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 26%; calm-weather level 15%","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.214740Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy4yMTQ3NDArMDA6MDB8OTg4MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"26%","expected_cancellations":15.6,"target":"ORD departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":233,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9881,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9880,"event_id":4286,"slug":"4286-ord-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 3–6 AM Saturday to 22%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 AM Saturday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"40% → 22%; calm-weather level 13%","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.097606Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy4wOTc2MDYrMDA6MDB8OTg4MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"22%","expected_cancellations":1.3,"target":"ORD departures 3–6 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":16,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9880,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9752,"event_id":4308,"slug":"4308-ord-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"O'Hare arrivals running late: 92% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM CST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:22:04.009689Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:22 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:22:00Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:22 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:22:03.927154Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:22 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNToyMjowNC4wMDk2ODkrMDA6MDB8OTc1Mg","measurement":{"window":"10:22 PM–11:22 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"92%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":289.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9752,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9694,"event_id":4188,"slug":"4188-ord-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday to 59%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from O'Hare midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 59% since the 8:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.358563Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi4zNTg1NjMrMDA6MDB8OTY5NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":4.3,"target":"ORD departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":19,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9694,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9624,"event_id":4233,"slug":"4233-ord-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"O'Hare departures running late: 95% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 8:31 PM and 9:31 PM CST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. O'Hare typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:46.131317Z","time":"9:31 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:31 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:00Z","time":"9:31 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:31 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:45.883923Z","time":"9:31 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:31 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzozMTo0Ni4xMzEzMTcrMDA6MDB8OTYyNA","measurement":{"window":"8:31 PM–9:31 PM CST","n":20,"late_n":19,"share_pct":"95%","baseline_pct":"34%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":267.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9624,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9559,"event_id":4133,"slug":"4133-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 50 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 50 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 43 → 50 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.355308Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy4zNTUzMDgrMDA6MDB8OTU1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":49.9,"target":"ORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":138,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9559,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9558,"event_id":4187,"slug":"4187-ord-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 8:10 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 8:07 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:12:13.904686Z","time":"8:12 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:12 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:12 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:10:08.117000Z","time":"8:10 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:10 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:10 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:12:13.867571Z","time":"8:12 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:12 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:12 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjoxMjoxMy45MDQ2ODYrMDA6MDB8OTU1OA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9558,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9553,"event_id":4167,"slug":"4167-ord-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 7:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 7:10 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:29:31.902807Z","time":"7:29 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:29 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:29 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:25:13.511000Z","time":"7:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:29:31.812731Z","time":"7:29 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:29 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:29 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyOTozMS45MDI4MDcrMDA6MDB8OTU1Mw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9553,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9463,"event_id":4061,"slug":"4061-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 59 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 59 of the 233 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (25%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 40 → 59 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.313949Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS4zMTM5NDkrMDA6MDB8OTQ2Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":59.2,"target":"ORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":233,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9463,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9453,"event_id":4145,"slug":"4145-ord-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:12 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:28:24.676806Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:25:14.017000Z","time":"5:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:28:24.527086Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzoyODoyNC42NzY4MDYrMDA6MDB8OTQ1Mw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9453,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9435,"event_id":4057,"slug":"4057-ord-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"O'Hare arrivals back near normal: 26% late in the last hour","body":"Of 27 arrivals that landed between 3:59 PM and 4:59 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 57% at worst → 26% now","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:59:39.896332Z","time":"4:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:59:00Z","time":"4:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:59:39.762931Z","time":"4:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo1OTozOS44OTYzMzIrMDA6MDB8OTQzNQ","measurement":{"window":"3:59 PM–4:59 PM CST","n":27,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"26%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-3.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9435,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9410,"event_id":4129,"slug":"4129-ord-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:45 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:44 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:49:11.696805Z","time":"4:49 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:49 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:49 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:45:22.359000Z","time":"4:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:49:11.659439Z","time":"4:49 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:49 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:49 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo0OToxMS42OTY4MDUrMDA6MDB8OTQxMA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9410,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9405,"event_id":4127,"slug":"4127-ord-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:41 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:32 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:45:05.338626Z","time":"4:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:41:13.601000Z","time":"4:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:45:05.281303Z","time":"4:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo0NTowNS4zMzg2MjYrMDA6MDB8OTQwNQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9405,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9371,"event_id":4029,"slug":"4029-ord-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:00 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 2:54 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.247265Z","time":"4:03 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:03 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:48.360000Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.187331Z","time":"4:03 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:03 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjowMzo1MS4yNDcyNjUrMDA6MDB8OTM3MQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":9371,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjowMzo1MS4yNDcyNjUrMDA6MDB8OTM3MQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozMy45MzY2MTIrMDA6MDB8MTAxNjQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 29 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 84 among O'Hare departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 67 → 84 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 84 of the 221 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~84 cancellationsHorizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 29 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 87 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 97 → 87 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 87 of the 238 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~88 cancellationsHorizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 29 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 61%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 61%

\n

What changed: 51% → 61% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 221 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 61%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 90 among O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 19 → 90 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 90 of the 217 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (42%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~90 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 102 among O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 25 → 102 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 102 of the 234 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~102 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 61%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 61%

\n

What changed: 55% → 61% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 217 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 61%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 58%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 58%

\n

What changed: 53% → 58% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 237 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 58%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 234 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 AM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 46%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal

\n

What changed: 44% → 31%; calm-weather level 21%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 237 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 31%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 26%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 26%, near normal

\n

What changed: 42% → 26%; calm-weather level 15%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 233 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 AM Saturday an average 26% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 26%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 22%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 3–6 AM Saturday to 22%, near normal

\n

What changed: 40% → 22%; calm-weather level 13%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 AM Saturday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 22%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n New\n \n \n Delay\n ORD\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

O'Hare arrivals running late: 92% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM CST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:22 PM–11:22 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 92%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 59%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday to 59%

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What changed: 41% → 59% since the 8:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from O'Hare midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 59%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n New\n \n \n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

O'Hare departures running late: 95% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 20 departures that took off between 8:31 PM and 9:31 PM CST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. O'Hare typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:31 PM–9:31 PM CSTSample 20 flightsLate 95%Typical 34%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ORD\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises expected cancellations to about 50 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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What changed: about 43 → 50 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 50 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~50 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare

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What changed: departure delays no longer listed

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FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 8:10 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 8:07 PM CST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 7:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 7:10 PM CST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n Late report\n
\n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 59 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Friday

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What changed: about 40 → 59 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 59 of the 233 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (25%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~59 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:12 PM CST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n ORD\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

O'Hare arrivals back near normal: 26% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 57% at worst → 26% now

\n \n

Of 27 arrivals that landed between 3:59 PM and 4:59 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 3:59 PM–4:59 PM CSTSample 27 flightsLate 26%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:45 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:44 PM CST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:41 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:32 PM CST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:00 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 2:54 PM CST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"airport=ORD"}