{"items":[{"id":13229,"event_id":5132,"slug":"5132-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 21 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 227 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 14 → 21 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T21:57:32.070792Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"16 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 21:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T21:57:31.097747Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"16 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 21:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQyMTo1NzozMi4wNzA3OTIrMDA6MDB8MTMyMjk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":20.7,"target":"ORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":227,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":13229,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":13152,"event_id":5182,"slug":"5182-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 12 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 134 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 12 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T20:56:09.714630Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T20:56:08.458840Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQyMDo1NjowOS43MTQ2MzArMDA6MDB8MTMxNTI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":12.1,"target":"ORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":134,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":13152,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12465,"event_id":4862,"slug":"4862-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 18 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 240 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 24 → 18 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:25:49.453208Z","time":"8:25 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:25 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:25:48.718443Z","time":"8:25 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:25 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNDoyNTo0OS40NTMyMDgrMDA6MDB8MTI0NjU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":17.6,"target":"ORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":240,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":12465,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12345,"event_id":5052,"slug":"5052-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 17 among O'Hare departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 225 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 86 → 17 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:38.062614Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:37.113811Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoyNjozOC4wNjI2MTQrMDA6MDB8MTIzNDU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":16.8,"target":"ORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":225,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12345,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12344,"event_id":4948,"slug":"4948-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 21 among O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 227 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 89 → 21 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:38.055963Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:37.113811Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoyNjozOC4wNTU5NjMrMDA6MDB8MTIzNDQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":21.2,"target":"ORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":227,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":12344,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12220,"event_id":4804,"slug":"4804-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 99 among O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 99 of the 240 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 14 → 99 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.896135Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1NS44OTYxMzUrMDA6MDB8MTIyMjA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":98.6,"target":"ORD departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":240,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":12220,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11456,"event_id":4616,"slug":"4616-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 27 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 130 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 14 → 27 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:25:47.695712Z","time":"7:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:25:46.599458Z","time":"7:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMToyNTo0Ny42OTU3MTIrMDA6MDB8MTE0NTY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":27.5,"target":"ORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":130,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":11456,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11382,"event_id":4509,"slug":"4509-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 23 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 23 of the 226 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 44 → 23 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:57:36.986087Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:57:36.188611Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMzo1NzozNi45ODYwODcrMDA6MDB8MTEzODI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":23.5,"target":"ORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":226,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":11382,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10980,"event_id":4409,"slug":"4409-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 38 among O'Hare departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 38 of the 223 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 29 → 38 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.288313Z","time":"12:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"12:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1MS4yODgzMTMrMDA6MDB8MTA5ODA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":37.5,"target":"ORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":223,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10980,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10873,"event_id":4359,"slug":"4359-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 46 among O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 46 of the 220 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 38 → 46 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.426992Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS40MjY5OTIrMDA6MDB8MTA4NzM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":45.7,"target":"ORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":220,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":10873,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10541,"event_id":4288,"slug":"4288-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 52 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 52 of the 236 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 25 → 52 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:09.803347Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:05.975812Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzowOS44MDMzNDcrMDA6MDB8MTA1NDE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":51.9,"target":"ORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":236,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":9,"latest_update_id":10541,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":9,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10055,"event_id":4190,"slug":"4190-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 102 among O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 102 of the 234 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 25 → 102 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.260687Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4yNjA2ODcrMDA6MDB8MTAwNTU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":101.9,"target":"ORD departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":234,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10055,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9559,"event_id":4133,"slug":"4133-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 50 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 50 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 43 → 50 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.355308Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy4zNTUzMDgrMDA6MDB8OTU1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":49.9,"target":"ORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":138,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9559,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9463,"event_id":4061,"slug":"4061-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 59 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 59 of the 233 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (25%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 40 → 59 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.313949Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"46 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"47 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"46 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS4zMTM5NDkrMDA6MDB8OTQ2Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":59.2,"target":"ORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":233,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"47 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9463,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQyMTo1NzozMi4wNzA3OTIrMDA6MDB8MTMyMjk","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 16 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 21 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 14 → 21 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 227 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~21 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 12 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 12 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 134 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 18 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n

What changed: about 24 → 18 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 240 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~18 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 17 among O'Hare departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 86 → 17 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 225 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~17 cancellationsHorizon 7.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 21 among O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 89 → 21 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 227 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~21 cancellationsHorizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 99 among O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 14 → 99 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 99 of the 240 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~99 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 27 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

\n

What changed: about 14 → 27 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 130 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~28 cancellationsHorizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 22 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 23 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 44 → 23 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 23 of the 226 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~24 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 27 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 38 among O'Hare departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 29 → 38 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 38 of the 223 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~38 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 28 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 46 among O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 38 → 46 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 46 of the 220 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~46 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 31 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 52 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 25 → 52 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 52 of the 236 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~52 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (9)\n 8 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 35 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises expected cancellations to about 102 among O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Saturday

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What changed: about 25 → 102 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 102 of the 234 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~102 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 43 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises expected cancellations to about 50 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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What changed: about 43 → 50 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 50 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~50 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 46 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ORD\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises expected cancellations to about 59 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Friday

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What changed: about 40 → 59 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 59 of the 233 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (25%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~59 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View ORD\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=ORD"}