{"items":[{"id":9758,"event_id":4288,"slug":"4288-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 25 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 237 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 19 → 25 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.720456Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.362127Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NjozNS43MjA0NTYrMDA6MDB8OTc1OA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":25.0,"target":"ORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":237,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9758,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9752,"event_id":4308,"slug":"4308-ord-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"O'Hare arrivals running late: 92% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM CST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:22:04.009689Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"44 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:22 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:22:00Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"44 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:22 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:22:03.927154Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"44 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:22 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNToyMjowNC4wMDk2ODkrMDA6MDB8OTc1Mg","measurement":{"window":"10:22 PM–11:22 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"92%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":289.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9752,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9696,"event_id":4287,"slug":"4287-ord-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 238 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.372529Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi4zNzI1MjkrMDA6MDB8OTY5Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":19.0,"target":"ORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":238,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9696,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9695,"event_id":4286,"slug":"4286-ord-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for O'Hare departures 3–6 AM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 AM Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.367861Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi4zNjc4NjErMDA6MDB8OTY5NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":2.1,"target":"ORD departures 3–6 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":15,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9695,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9694,"event_id":4188,"slug":"4188-ord-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday to 59%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from O'Hare midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 59% since the 8:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.358563Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi4zNTg1NjMrMDA6MDB8OTY5NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":4.3,"target":"ORD departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":19,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9694,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9641,"event_id":4190,"slug":"4190-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 25 among O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 231 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 22 → 25 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:17.026530Z","time":"9:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:15.993642Z","time":"9:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNy4wMjY1MzArMDA6MDB8OTY0MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":25.3,"target":"ORD departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":231,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9641,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9624,"event_id":4233,"slug":"4233-ord-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"O'Hare departures running late: 95% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 8:31 PM and 9:31 PM CST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. O'Hare typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:46.131317Z","time":"9:31 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:31 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:00Z","time":"9:31 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:31 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:45.883923Z","time":"9:31 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:31 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzozMTo0Ni4xMzEzMTcrMDA6MDB8OTYyNA","measurement":{"window":"8:31 PM–9:31 PM CST","n":20,"late_n":19,"share_pct":"95%","baseline_pct":"34%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":267.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9624,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9561,"event_id":4189,"slug":"4189-ord-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 231 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 AM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.376430Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy4zNzY0MzArMDA6MDB8OTU2MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":21.9,"target":"ORD departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":231,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9561,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9559,"event_id":4133,"slug":"4133-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 50 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 50 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 43 → 50 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.355308Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy4zNTUzMDgrMDA6MDB8OTU1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":49.9,"target":"ORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":138,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9559,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9558,"event_id":4187,"slug":"4187-ord-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 8:10 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 8:07 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:12:13.904686Z","time":"8:12 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:12 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:12 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:10:08.117000Z","time":"8:10 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:10 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:10 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:12:13.867571Z","time":"8:12 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:12 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:12 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjoxMjoxMy45MDQ2ODYrMDA6MDB8OTU1OA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9558,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9553,"event_id":4167,"slug":"4167-ord-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 7:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 7:10 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:29:31.902807Z","time":"7:29 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:29 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:29 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:25:13.511000Z","time":"7:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:29:31.812731Z","time":"7:29 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:29 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:29 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyOTozMS45MDI4MDcrMDA6MDB8OTU1Mw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9553,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9463,"event_id":4061,"slug":"4061-ord-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 59 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 59 of the 233 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (25%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 40 → 59 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.313949Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS4zMTM5NDkrMDA6MDB8OTQ2Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":59.2,"target":"ORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":233,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9463,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9453,"event_id":4145,"slug":"4145-ord-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:12 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:28:24.676806Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:25:14.017000Z","time":"5:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:28:24.527086Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzoyODoyNC42NzY4MDYrMDA6MDB8OTQ1Mw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9453,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9435,"event_id":4057,"slug":"4057-ord-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"O'Hare arrivals back near normal: 26% late in the last hour","body":"Of 27 arrivals that landed between 3:59 PM and 4:59 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 57% at worst → 26% now","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:59:39.896332Z","time":"4:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:59:00Z","time":"4:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:59:39.762931Z","time":"4:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo1OTozOS44OTYzMzIrMDA6MDB8OTQzNQ","measurement":{"window":"3:59 PM–4:59 PM CST","n":27,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"26%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-3.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9435,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9410,"event_id":4129,"slug":"4129-ord-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:45 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:44 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:49:11.696805Z","time":"4:49 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:49 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:49 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:45:22.359000Z","time":"4:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:49:11.659439Z","time":"4:49 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:49 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:49 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo0OToxMS42OTY4MDUrMDA6MDB8OTQxMA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9410,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9405,"event_id":4127,"slug":"4127-ord-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:41 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:32 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:45:05.338626Z","time":"4:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:41:13.601000Z","time":"4:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:45:05.281303Z","time":"4:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo0NTowNS4zMzg2MjYrMDA6MDB8OTQwNQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9405,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9371,"event_id":4029,"slug":"4029-ord-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:00 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 2:54 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.247265Z","time":"4:03 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:03 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:48.360000Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.187331Z","time":"4:03 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:03 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjowMzo1MS4yNDcyNjUrMDA6MDB8OTM3MQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":9371,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9237,"event_id":4060,"slug":"4060-ord-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 78% delay risk for O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 139 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.738204Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS43MzgyMDQrMDA6MDB8OTIzNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"78%","expected_cancellations":6.8,"target":"ORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":139,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9237,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9236,"event_id":4059,"slug":"4059-ord-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 83% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 235 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 PM Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.720395Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS43MjAzOTUrMDA6MDB8OTIzNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"83%","expected_cancellations":21.5,"target":"ORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":235,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9236,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9223,"event_id":4021,"slug":"4021-ord-ground-stop","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA no longer lists a ground stop at O'Hare","body":"The ground stop for flights to O'Hare (ORD) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 3:30 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 2:52 PM CST.","what_changed":"ground stop no longer listed","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:34:40.902069Z","time":"3:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:34 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:30:44.743000Z","time":"3:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:34:40.861730Z","time":"3:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:34 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTozNDo0MC45MDIwNjkrMDA6MDB8OTIyMw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9223,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8870,"event_id":3853,"slug":"3853-ord-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"O'Hare departures back near normal: 5% late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 5:46 AM and 6:46 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. O'Hare typically sees 11% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 21% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 85% at worst → 5% now","airports":["ORD"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:46:02.289721Z","time":"6:46 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:46 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:46 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:46:00Z","time":"6:46 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:46 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:46 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:46:02.216456Z","time":"6:46 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:46 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:46 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMjo0NjowMi4yODk3MjErMDA6MDB8ODg3MA","measurement":{"window":"5:46 AM–6:46 AM CST","n":20,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"5%","baseline_pct":"11%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8870,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMjo0NjowMi4yODk3MjErMDA6MDB8ODg3MA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NjozNS43MjA0NTYrMDA6MDB8OTc1OA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ORD\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 25 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n ▲ about 19 → 25 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n ORD\n ARR\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

O'Hare arrivals running late: 92% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 92% late\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n ORD\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n 44% risk\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n ORD\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 40% delay risk for O'Hare departures 3–6 AM Saturday

\n 40% risk\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ORD\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday to 59%

\n ▲ 41% → 59% since the 8:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ORD\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Updated model now expects about 25 among O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n ▲ about 22 → 25 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM CST forecast\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n ORD\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

O'Hare departures running late: 95% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 95% late\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n ORD\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n 42% risk\n
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\n +4Show all 4 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ORD\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 50 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n ▲ about 43 → 50 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n ORD\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n ORD\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n RESOLVED · LATE\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ORD\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 59 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n ▲ about 40 → 59 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n ORD\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n ORD\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

O'Hare arrivals back near normal: 26% late in the last hour

\n late share 57% at worst → 26% now\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n ORD\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n ORD\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +6Show all 6 updates\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n ORD\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at O'Hare

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ORD\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 78% delay risk for O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n 78% risk\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ORD\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 83% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n 83% risk\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n ORD\n ARR\n GND STOP\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists a ground stop at O'Hare

\n ground stop no longer listed\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

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\n +Show details\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n \n A+D\n RESTRICT\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n ORD\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

O'Hare departures back near normal: 5% late in the last hour

\n late share 85% at worst → 5% now\n
\n \n
"],"filters":"airport=ORD&view=terminal"}