{"items":[{"id":12276,"event_id":4933,"slug":"4933-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 58 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 6 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.193206Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4xOTMyMDYrMDA6MDB8MTIyNzY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.8,"target":"PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12276,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12139,"event_id":4987,"slug":"4987-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 6 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 64 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 20 → 6 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.416567Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0OC40MTY1NjcrMDA6MDB8MTIxMzk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.6,"target":"PHL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":64,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12139,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12137,"event_id":4850,"slug":"4850-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 67 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 32 → 8 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.392166Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0OC4zOTIxNjYrMDA6MDB8MTIxMzc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.9,"target":"PHL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":67,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":12137,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12136,"event_id":4792,"slug":"4792-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 14 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 78 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 39 → 14 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.388511Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0OC4zODg1MTErMDA6MDB8MTIxMzY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":14.1,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":78,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":12136,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12035,"event_id":4986,"slug":"4986-phl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Sunday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:25.884977Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:24.345331Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwOTo1ODoyNS44ODQ5NzcrMDA6MDB8MTIwMzU","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":19.7,"target":"PHL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":64,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12035,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11858,"event_id":4932,"slug":"4932-phl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Sunday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:35.977014Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:33.606557Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNS45NzcwMTQrMDA6MDB8MTE4NTg","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":24.7,"target":"PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11858,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11523,"event_id":4737,"slug":"4737-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia arrival delays worsen: 83% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:14 PM and 9:14 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 53% → 83%","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:14:59.105828Z","time":"9:14 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:14 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:14 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:14:00Z","time":"9:14 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:14 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:14 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:14:58.551979Z","time":"9:14 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:14 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:14 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMjoxNDo1OS4xMDU4MjgrMDA6MDB8MTE1MjM","measurement":{"window":"8:14 PM–9:14 PM EST","n":12,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"83%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":66.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11523,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11472,"event_id":4778,"slug":"4778-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 22 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:25:48.020062Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:25:46.599458Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMToyNTo0OC4wMjAwNjIrMDA6MDB8MTE0NzI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.8,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11472,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11471,"event_id":4624,"slug":"4624-phl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 54%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"61% → 54% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:25:48.000321Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:25:46.599458Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMToyNTo0OC4wMDAzMjErMDA6MDB8MTE0NzE","forecast":{"p_pct":"54%","expected_cancellations":5.8,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":11471,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11337,"event_id":4469,"slug":"4469-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 64 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:56:11.344239Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:56:10.342678Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMjo1NjoxMS4zNDQyMzkrMDA6MDB8MTEzMzc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.9,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":64,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":10,"latest_update_id":11337,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":10,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11299,"event_id":4671,"slug":"4671-phl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia departure delays ease: 61% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 23 departures that took off between 4:15 PM and 5:15 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 68% → 61%","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:15:13.002477Z","time":"5:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:15 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:15:00Z","time":"5:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:15:11.969882Z","time":"5:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:15 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMjoxNToxMy4wMDI0NzcrMDA6MDB8MTEyOTk","measurement":{"window":"4:15 PM–5:15 PM EST","n":23,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"61%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":17.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11299,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11019,"event_id":4433,"slug":"4433-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.856183Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1MS44NTYxODMrMDA6MDB8MTEwMTk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.4,"target":"PHL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":11019,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10914,"event_id":4653,"slug":"4653-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 22 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 3","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.635044Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS42MzUwNDQrMDA6MDB8MTA5MTQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10914,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10801,"event_id":4432,"slug":"4432-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 18 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.131993Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMzE5OTMrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":17.6,"target":"PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10801,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10800,"event_id":4537,"slug":"4537-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 56% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.124248Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMjQyNDgrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDA","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":26.1,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10800,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10799,"event_id":4431,"slug":"4431-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 57%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 57% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.118796Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMTg3OTYrMDA6MDB8MTA3OTk","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":21.7,"target":"PHL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10799,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10798,"event_id":4430,"slug":"4430-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 54%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"43% → 54% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.113099Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMTMwOTkrMDA6MDB8MTA3OTg","forecast":{"p_pct":"54%","expected_cancellations":17.6,"target":"PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10798,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10364,"event_id":4468,"slug":"4468-phl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 34%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 34% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.025385Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wMjUzODUrMDA6MDB8MTAzNjQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"34%","expected_cancellations":20.3,"target":"PHL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":62,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10364,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10122,"event_id":4298,"slug":"4298-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 20 among Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (33%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 20 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:05.258208Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS4yNTgyMDgrMDA6MDB8MTAxMjI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":20.2,"target":"PHL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":61,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10122,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10121,"event_id":4180,"slug":"4180-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 77 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 28 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:05.253504Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS4yNTM1MDQrMDA6MDB8MTAxMjE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":27.6,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":77,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10121,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9630,"event_id":4238,"slug":"4238-phl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 9:41 PM and 10:41 PM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:41:59.066974Z","time":"10:41 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:41 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:41:00Z","time":"10:41 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:41 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:41:58.304172Z","time":"10:41 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:41 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo0MTo1OS4wNjY5NzQrMDA6MDB8OTYzMA","measurement":{"window":"9:41 PM–10:41 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":182.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9630,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9495,"event_id":4097,"slug":"4097-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 31 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 13 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.594297Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS41OTQyOTcrMDA6MDB8OTQ5NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":12.9,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9495,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9494,"event_id":3818,"slug":"3818-phl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 72%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"83% → 72% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.590094Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS41OTAwOTQrMDA6MDB8OTQ5NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"72%","expected_cancellations":12.9,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9494,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS41OTAwOTQrMDA6MDB8OTQ5NA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4xOTMyMDYrMDA6MDB8MTIyNzY","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 15 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 6 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 58 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 6 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 20 → 6 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 64 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n

What changed: about 32 → 8 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 67 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 14 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 39 → 14 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 78 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Sunday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Sunday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 43%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Philadelphia arrival delays worsen: 83% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 53% → 83%

\n \n

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:14 PM and 9:14 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:14 PM–9:14 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 83%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 22 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 54%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 54%

\n

What changed: 61% → 54% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 54%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 64 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (10)\n 9 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Philadelphia departure delays ease: 61% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 68% → 61%

\n \n

Of 23 departures that took off between 4:15 PM and 5:15 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 4:15 PM–5:15 PM ESTSample 23 flightsLate 61%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 10 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 8 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 22 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 18 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~18 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 56%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 56%

\n

What changed: 44% → 56% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 56%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 57%

\n

What changed: 47% → 57% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 57%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 54%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 54%

\n

What changed: 43% → 54% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 54%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 22 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 34%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 34%

\n

What changed: 47% → 34% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 34%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 20 among Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 20 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (33%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~20 cancellationsHorizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 28 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 77 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~28 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 32 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Philadelphia departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 9:41 PM and 10:41 PM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:41 PM–10:41 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 100%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 34 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 36 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n Late report\n
\n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 36 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 13 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 31 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~13 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 36 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 72%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 72%

\n

What changed: 83% → 72% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 72%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"airport=PHL"}