{"items":[{"id":11059,"event_id":4671,"slug":"4671-phl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia departure delays ease: 38% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 1:06 PM and 2:06 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 62% → 38%","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:06:08.131136Z","time":"2:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:06:00Z","time":"2:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:06:07.508670Z","time":"2:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxOTowNjowOC4xMzExMzYrMDA6MDB8MTEwNTk","measurement":{"window":"1:06 PM–2:06 PM EST","n":16,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"38%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":2.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11059,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11020,"event_id":4469,"slug":"4469-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.861131Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1MS44NjExMzErMDA6MDB8MTEwMjA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.6,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":11020,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11019,"event_id":4433,"slug":"4433-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.856183Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1MS44NTYxODMrMDA6MDB8MTEwMTk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.4,"target":"PHL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":11019,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11018,"event_id":4624,"slug":"4624-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 59%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 59% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.852506Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1MS44NTI1MDYrMDA6MDB8MTEwMTg","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":2.8,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11018,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10914,"event_id":4653,"slug":"4653-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 22 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 3","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.635044Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS42MzUwNDQrMDA6MDB8MTA5MTQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10914,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10913,"event_id":4469,"slug":"4469-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 26 → 12 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.632783Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS42MzI3ODMrMDA6MDB8MTA5MTM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.7,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":11020,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":11020,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.861131Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"}}},{"id":10912,"event_id":4433,"slug":"4433-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 22 → 10 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.630272Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS42MzAyNzIrMDA6MDB8MTA5MTI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.8,"target":"PHL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":11019,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":11019,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.856183Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"}}},{"id":10868,"event_id":4671,"slug":"4671-phl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 11:56 AM and 12:56 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.216470Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:00Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS4yMTY0NzArMDA6MDB8MTA4Njg","measurement":{"window":"11:56 AM–12:56 PM EST","n":16,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"62%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":36.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11059,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":11059,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Philadelphia departure delays ease: 38% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:06:08.131136Z","time":"2:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:06 UTC"}}},{"id":10804,"event_id":4653,"slug":"4653-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.150681Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xNTA2ODErMDA6MDB8MTA4MDQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.3,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10914,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10914,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday to about 3","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.635044Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"}}},{"id":10803,"event_id":4469,"slug":"4469-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 26 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (40%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 26 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.143506Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xNDM1MDYrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":26.1,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":11020,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":11020,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.861131Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"}}},{"id":10802,"event_id":4433,"slug":"4433-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (33%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 22 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.137395Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMzczOTUrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":21.7,"target":"PHL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":11019,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":11019,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.856183Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"}}},{"id":10801,"event_id":4432,"slug":"4432-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 18 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.131993Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMzE5OTMrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":17.6,"target":"PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10801,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10800,"event_id":4537,"slug":"4537-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 56% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.124248Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMjQyNDgrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDA","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":26.1,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10800,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10799,"event_id":4431,"slug":"4431-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 57%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 57% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.118796Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMTg3OTYrMDA6MDB8MTA3OTk","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":21.7,"target":"PHL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10799,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10798,"event_id":4430,"slug":"4430-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 54%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"43% → 54% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.113099Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMTMwOTkrMDA6MDB8MTA3OTg","forecast":{"p_pct":"54%","expected_cancellations":17.6,"target":"PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10798,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10680,"event_id":4469,"slug":"4469-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 66 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:36.093084Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNi4wOTMwODQrMDA6MDB8MTA2ODA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.8,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":66,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":11020,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":11020,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.861131Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"}}},{"id":10679,"event_id":4624,"slug":"4624-phl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 43%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 34%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 34% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.025385Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wMjUzODUrMDA6MDB8MTAzNjQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"34%","expected_cancellations":20.3,"target":"PHL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":62,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10364,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10217,"event_id":4469,"slug":"4469-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 11 cancellations among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 66 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.279840Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4yNzk4NDArMDA6MDB8MTAyMTc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.6,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":11.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":66,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":11020,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":11020,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.861131Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"}}}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4yNzk4NDArMDA6MDB8MTAyMTc","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxOTowNjowOC4xMzExMzYrMDA6MDB8MTEwNTk","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"11059\" data-event=\"4671\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxOTowNjowOC4xMzExMzYrMDA6MDB8MTEwNTk\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11059\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T19:06:08.131136Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 19:06 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 2:06 PM EST\">2:06 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T19:06:08.131136Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11059\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4671-phl-delays#u-11059\">Philadelphia departure delays ease: 38% late in the last hour, still above normal</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 62% → 38%</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 16 departures that took off between 1:06 PM and 2:06 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>1:06 PM–2:06 PM EST</b></span><span>Sample <b>16 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>38%</b></span><span>Typical <b>22%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4671-phl-delays#u-11059\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4671\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4671-phl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"11020\" data-event=\"4469\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1MS44NjExMzErMDA6MDB8MTEwMjA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11020\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T18:55:51.861131Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST\">1:55 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T18:55:51.861131Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11020\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk#u-11020\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~9 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>4.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk#u-11020\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (7)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4469\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"11019\" data-event=\"4433\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1MS44NTYxODMrMDA6MDB8MTEwMTk\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11019\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T18:55:51.856183Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST\">1:55 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T18:55:51.856183Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11019\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4433-phl-cancellation-risk#u-11019\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 10 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~6 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>1.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4433-phl-cancellation-risk#u-11019\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4433\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4433-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"11018\" data-event=\"4624\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1MS44NTI1MDYrMDA6MDB8MTEwMTg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11018\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T18:55:51.852506Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST\">1:55 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T18:55:51.852506Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 59%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11018\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4624-phl-delays#u-11018\">Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 59%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 41% → 59% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>59%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>7.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4624-phl-delays#u-11018\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4624\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4624-phl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"10914\" data-event=\"4653\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS42MzUwNDQrMDA6MDB8MTA5MTQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10914\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T17:56:11.635044Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST\">12:56 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T17:56:11.635044Z\">2 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Resolution</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10914\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4653-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10914\">Model lowers expected cancellations among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday to about 3</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 8 → 3</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 22 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~2 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>8.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4653-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10914\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4653\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4653-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10913\" data-event=\"4469\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS42MzI3ODMrMDA6MDB8MTA5MTM\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10913\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T17:56:11.632783Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST\">12:56 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T17:56:11.632783Z\">2 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10913\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10913\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 26 → 12 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~12 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>5.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10913\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (7)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4469\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10912\" data-event=\"4433\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS42MzAyNzIrMDA6MDB8MTA5MTI\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10912\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T17:56:11.630272Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST\">12:56 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T17:56:11.630272Z\">2 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10912\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4433-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10912\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 22 → 10 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~10 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>2.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4433-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10912\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4433\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4433-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10868\" data-event=\"4671\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS4yMTY0NzArMDA6MDB8MTA4Njg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10868\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T17:56:11.216470Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST\">12:56 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T17:56:11.216470Z\">2 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10868\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4671-phl-delays#u-10868\">Philadelphia departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 16 departures that took off between 11:56 AM and 12:56 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>11:56 AM–12:56 PM EST</b></span><span>Sample <b>16 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>62%</b></span><span>Typical <b>21%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4671-phl-delays#u-10868\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4671\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4671-phl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10804\" data-event=\"4653\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xNTA2ODErMDA6MDB8MTA4MDQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10804\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.150681Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST\">11:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.150681Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10804\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4653-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10804\">Model expects about 8 cancellations among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 22 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~8 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>9.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4653-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10804\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4653\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4653-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10803\" data-event=\"4469\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xNDM1MDYrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDM\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10803\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.143506Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST\">11:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.143506Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10803\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10803\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 26 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 8 → 26 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (40%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~26 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>6.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10803\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (7)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4469\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10802\" data-event=\"4433\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMzczOTUrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDI\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10802\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.137395Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST\">11:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.137395Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10802\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4433-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10802\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 7 → 22 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (33%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~22 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>3.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4433-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10802\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4433\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4433-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10801\" data-event=\"4432\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMzE5OTMrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDE\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10801\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.131993Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST\">11:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.131993Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10801\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4432-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10801\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 5 → 18 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~18 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>0.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4432-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10801\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (3)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4432\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4432-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10800\" data-event=\"4537\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMjQyNDgrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10800\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.124248Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST\">11:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.124248Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 56%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10800\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4537-phl-delays#u-10800\">Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 56%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 44% → 56% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>56%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>6.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4537-phl-delays#u-10800\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4537\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4537-phl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10799\" data-event=\"4431\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMTg3OTYrMDA6MDB8MTA3OTk\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10799\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.118796Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST\">11:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.118796Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 57%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10799\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4431-phl-delays#u-10799\">Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 57%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 47% → 57% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>57%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>3.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4431-phl-delays#u-10799\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4431\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4431-phl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"10798\" data-event=\"4430\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMTMwOTkrMDA6MDB8MTA3OTg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10798\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.113099Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST\">11:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.113099Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 54%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10798\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4430-phl-delays#u-10798\">Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 54%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 43% → 54% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>54%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>0.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4430-phl-delays#u-10798\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4430\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4430-phl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10680\" data-event=\"4469\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNi4wOTMwODQrMDA6MDB8MTA2ODA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10680\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T15:56:36.093084Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST\">10:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T15:56:36.093084Z\">4 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10680\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10680\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 66 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~8 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>7.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10680\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (7)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4469\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"10679\" data-event=\"4624\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNi4wNzM1MjErMDA6MDB8MTA2Nzk\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10679\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T15:56:36.073521Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST\">10:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T15:56:36.073521Z\">4 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 41%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10679\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4624-phl-delays#u-10679\">Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>41%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>10.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4624-phl-delays#u-10679\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4624\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4624-phl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"10500\" data-event=\"4469\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDoyNjowNy43MzQxMDIrMDA6MDB8MTA1MDA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10500\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T14:26:07.734102Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 9:26 AM EST\">9:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T14:26:07.734102Z\">6 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10500\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10500\">Updated model now expects about 6 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 20 → 6 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~6 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>8.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10500\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (7)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4469\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10499\" data-event=\"4433\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDoyNjowNy43MjgxNjUrMDA6MDB8MTA0OTk\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10499\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T14:26:07.728165Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 9:26 AM EST\">9:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T14:26:07.728165Z\">6 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10499\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4433-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10499\">Updated model now expects about 7 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 21 → 7 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~6 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>5.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4433-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10499\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4433\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4433-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10498\" data-event=\"4432\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDoyNjowNy43MDkxMzUrMDA6MDB8MTA0OTg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10498\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T14:26:07.709135Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 9:26 AM EST\">9:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T14:26:07.709135Z\">6 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10498\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4432-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10498\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 15 → 5 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~5 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>2.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4432-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10498\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (3)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4432\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4432-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10367\" data-event=\"4469\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wMzU1NzkrMDA6MDB8MTAzNjc\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10367\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.035579Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST\">8:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.035579Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10367\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10367\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 20 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 11 → 20 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~20 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>9.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10367\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (7)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4469\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"10366\" data-event=\"4537\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wMzIyMzIrMDA6MDB8MTAzNjY\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10366\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.032232Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST\">8:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.032232Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 44%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10366\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4537-phl-delays#u-10366\">Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>44%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>9.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4537-phl-delays#u-10366\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4537\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4537-phl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"10365\" data-event=\"4430\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wMjkxMjMrMDA6MDB8MTAzNjU\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10365\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.029123Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST\">8:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.029123Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 43%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10365\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4430-phl-delays#u-10365\">Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 43%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 56% → 43% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>43%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>3.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4430-phl-delays#u-10365\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4430\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4430-phl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"10364\" data-event=\"4468\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wMjUzODUrMDA6MDB8MTAzNjQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10364\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.025385Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST\">8:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.025385Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 34%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10364\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4468-phl-delays#u-10364\">Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 34%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 47% → 34% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>34%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>0.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4468-phl-delays#u-10364\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4468\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4468-phl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10217\" data-event=\"4469\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4yNzk4NDArMDA6MDB8MTAyMTc\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10217\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T11:57:34.279840Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST\">6:57 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T11:57:34.279840Z\">8 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/PHL\">PHL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10217\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10217\">Model expects about 11 cancellations among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 66 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~11 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>11.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk#u-10217\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (7)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/PHL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View PHL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4469\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4469-phl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n"],"filters":"airport=PHL&mode=all"}