{"items":[{"id":8900,"event_id":3897,"slug":"3897-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 58 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 3 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.380521Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:44.385825Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4zODA1MjErMDA6MDB8ODkwMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.1,"target":"PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8900,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8899,"event_id":3896,"slug":"3896-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 65 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 3 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.377130Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:44.385825Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4zNzcxMzArMDA6MDB8ODg5OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.4,"target":"PHL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8899,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8673,"event_id":3809,"slug":"3809-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 80 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.443477Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni40NDM0NzcrMDA6MDB8ODY3Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.8,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":80,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8673,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4zODA1MjErMDA6MDB8ODkwMA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 7 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 3 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 58 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 7 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 3 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 65 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Friday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 80 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=PHL"}