{"items":[{"id":8843,"event_id":3733,"slug":"3733-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 57%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 57% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:57:45.381293Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:57:44.821486Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMDo1Nzo0NS4zODEyOTMrMDA6MDB8ODg0Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":4.6,"target":"PHL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":64,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8843,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8842,"event_id":3856,"slug":"3856-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 51%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 51% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:57:45.375126Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:57:44.821486Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMDo1Nzo0NS4zNzUxMjYrMDA6MDB8ODg0Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":7.4,"target":"PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8842,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8701,"event_id":3748,"slug":"3748-phl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia arrival delays ease: 47% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 15 arrivals that landed between 10:45 PM and 11:45 PM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.736089Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43MzYwODkrMDA6MDB8ODU2NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":1.0,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":21.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":74,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8564,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8563,"event_id":3654,"slug":"3654-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 70%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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Philadelphia typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 70%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Thursday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Thursday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 35%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Thursday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 35%; calm-weather level 28%","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T13:27:29.925357Z","time":"8:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 13:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T13:27:27.212433Z","time":"8:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 13:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxMzoyNzoyOS45MjUzNTcrMDA6MDB8ODI5Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"35%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":76,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8292,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8277,"event_id":3603,"slug":"3603-phl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Thursday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"40% → 31%; calm-weather level 23%","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T10:57:31.991980Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 10:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T10:57:31.564465Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 10:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxMDo1NzozMS45OTE5ODArMDA6MDB8ODI3Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"PHL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":63,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8277,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7904,"event_id":3444,"slug":"3444-phl-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia departures back near normal: 10% late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 departures that took off between 1:17 PM and 2:17 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 56% at worst → 10% now","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:17:35.030330Z","time":"2:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:17 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:17:00Z","time":"2:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:17 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:17:34.274866Z","time":"2:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:17 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxOToxNzozNS4wMzAzMzArMDA6MDB8NzkwNA","measurement":{"window":"1:17 PM–2:17 PM EST","n":21,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"10%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7904,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7819,"event_id":3397,"slug":"3397-phl-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia arrivals back near normal: 20% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 arrivals that landed between 10:56 PM and 11:56 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 50% at worst → 20% now","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:56:24.618601Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 11:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:56:00Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 11:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:56:23.575905Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 11:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwNDo1NjoyNC42MTg2MDErMDA6MDB8NzgxOQ","measurement":{"window":"10:56 PM–11:56 PM EST","n":15,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"20%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7819,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7614,"event_id":3284,"slug":"3284-phl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 35%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 35%; calm-weather level 31%","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T21:57:14.896919Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 4:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 21:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T21:57:12.353505Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 4:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 21:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QyMTo1NzoxNC44OTY5MTkrMDA6MDB8NzYxNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"35%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":24,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7614,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7514,"event_id":3268,"slug":"3268-phl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 28%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 28%; calm-weather level 23%","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:59:42.600475Z","time":"5:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:59:36.897287Z","time":"5:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxMDo1OTo0Mi42MDA0NzUrMDA6MDB8NzUxNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"28%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":88,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7514,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7451,"event_id":3092,"slug":"3092-phl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia arrival delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:14 PM and 12:14 AM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 80% → 50%","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:14:11.061477Z","time":"12:14 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:14 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:14 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:14:00Z","time":"12:14 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:14 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:14 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:14:10.377552Z","time":"12:14 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:14 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:14 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNToxNDoxMS4wNjE0NzcrMDA6MDB8NzQ1MQ","measurement":{"window":"11:14 PM–12:14 AM EST","n":16,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":16.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":7451,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7419,"event_id":3036,"slug":"3036-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia departure delays worsen: 71% late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 9:48 PM and 10:48 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 48% → 71%","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:48:31.329630Z","time":"10:48 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:48 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:48 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:48:00Z","time":"10:48 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:48 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:48 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:48:31.026353Z","time":"10:48 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:48 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:48 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMzo0ODozMS4zMjk2MzArMDA6MDB8NzQxOQ","measurement":{"window":"9:48 PM–10:48 PM EST","n":14,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"71%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":24.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":7419,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7255,"event_id":2955,"slug":"2955-phl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 63%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 133 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"67% → 63% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:56:00.775385Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:55:59.164561Z","time":"5:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMjo1NjowMC43NzUzODUrMDA6MDB8NzI1NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"63%","expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":133,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":7255,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7205,"event_id":3043,"slug":"3043-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"51% → 56% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:39.545480Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:37.678010Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMTo1NjozOS41NDU0ODArMDA6MDB8NzIwNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7205,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7006,"event_id":2903,"slug":"2903-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 100 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"54% → 55% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:05.845912Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:02.771516Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNjo1NjowNS44NDU5MTIrMDA6MDB8NzAwNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":100,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7006,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6569,"event_id":2857,"slug":"2857-phl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T08:25:57.503363Z","time":"3:25 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 3:25 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 08:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T08:25:56.977632Z","time":"3:25 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 3:25 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 08:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQwODoyNTo1Ny41MDMzNjMrMDA6MDB8NjU2OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":1.8,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":17.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":54,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6569,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6548,"event_id":2843,"slug":"2843-phl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 142 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T02:27:03.877207Z","time":"9:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 9:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 02:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T01:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 8:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T02:27:02.918874Z","time":"9:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 9:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 02:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQwMjoyNzowMy44NzcyMDcrMDA6MDB8NjU0OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":3.1,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":20.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":142,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T01:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 8:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 01:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6548,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5778,"event_id":2530,"slug":"2530-phl-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia arrivals back near normal: 8% late in the last hour","body":"Of 26 arrivals that landed between 7:14 PM and 8:14 PM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 50% at worst → 8% now","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T01:14:02.481874Z","time":"8:14 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 8:14 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 01:14 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T01:14:00Z","time":"8:14 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 8:14 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 01:14 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T01:14:01.272995Z","time":"8:14 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 8:14 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 01:14 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QwMToxNDowMi40ODE4NzQrMDA6MDB8NTc3OA","measurement":{"window":"7:14 PM–8:14 PM EST","n":26,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"8%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-16.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5778,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5325,"event_id":2299,"slug":"2299-phl-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 28 arrivals that landed between 6:43 AM and 7:43 AM EST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 71% at worst → 0% now","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T12:43:07.041882Z","time":"7:43 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 7:43 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 12:43 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T12:43:00Z","time":"7:43 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 7:43 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 12:43 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T12:43:05.680205Z","time":"7:43 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 7:43 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 12:43 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxMjo0MzowNy4wNDE4ODIrMDA6MDB8NTMyNQ","measurement":{"window":"6:43 AM–7:43 AM EST","n":28,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-20.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5325,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4655,"event_id":2071,"slug":"2071-phl-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 30 departures that took off between 10:26 AM and 11:26 AM EST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 15% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 25% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 53% at worst → 0% now","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-01T16:26:27.052656Z","time":"11:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 11:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 16:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-01T16:26:00Z","time":"11:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 11:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 16:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-01T16:26:26.399329Z","time":"11:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 11:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 16:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMVQxNjoyNjoyNy4wNTI2NTYrMDA6MDB8NDY1NQ","measurement":{"window":"10:26 AM–11:26 AM EST","n":30,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"15%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":4655,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMVQxNjoyNjoyNy4wNTI2NTYrMDA6MDB8NDY1NQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMDo1Nzo0NS4zODEyOTMrMDA6MDB8ODg0Mw","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 57%

\n

What changed: 41% → 57% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 57%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 51%

\n

What changed: 41% → 51% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Philadelphia arrival delays ease: 47% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 83% → 47%

\n \n

Of 15 arrivals that landed between 10:45 PM and 11:45 PM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:45 PM–11:45 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 47%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 23.0 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 47%Horizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 70%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 70%

\n

What changed: 57% → 70% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 70%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n New\n \n \n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Philadelphia departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 15 departures that took off between 5:34 PM and 6:34 PM EST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 5:34 PM–6:34 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 100%Typical 30%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 70%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 70%

\n

What changed: 58% → 70% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Thursday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 70%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Thursday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 21 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 35%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 35%, near normal

\n

What changed: 47% → 35%; calm-weather level 28%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Thursday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 35%Horizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 24 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 31%, near normal

\n

What changed: 40% → 31%; calm-weather level 23%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Thursday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 31%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Philadelphia departures back near normal: 10% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 56% at worst → 10% now

\n \n

Of 21 departures that took off between 1:17 PM and 2:17 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 1:17 PM–2:17 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 10%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Philadelphia arrivals back near normal: 20% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% at worst → 20% now

\n \n

Of 15 arrivals that landed between 10:56 PM and 11:56 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 10:56 PM–11:56 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 20%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 35%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 35%, near normal

\n

What changed: 41% → 35%; calm-weather level 31%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 35%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 28%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 28%, near normal

\n

What changed: 41% → 28%; calm-weather level 23%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 28%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Philadelphia arrival delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 80% → 50%

\n \n

Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:14 PM and 12:14 AM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:14 PM–12:14 AM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Philadelphia departure delays worsen: 71% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 48% → 71%

\n \n

Of 14 departures that took off between 9:48 PM and 10:48 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:48 PM–10:48 PM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 71%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 63%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 63%

\n

What changed: 67% → 63% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 133 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 63%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 56%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 56%

\n

What changed: 51% → 56% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 56%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 55%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 55%

\n

What changed: 54% → 55% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 100 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 55%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 5\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 45%Horizon 17.6 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 4\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 142 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 20.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Philadelphia arrivals back near normal: 8% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% at worst → 8% now

\n \n

Of 26 arrivals that landed between 7:14 PM and 8:14 PM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 7:14 PM–8:14 PM ESTSample 26 flightsLate 8%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Philadelphia arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 71% at worst → 0% now

\n \n

Of 28 arrivals that landed between 6:43 AM and 7:43 AM EST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 6:43 AM–7:43 AM ESTSample 28 flightsLate 0%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 1\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Philadelphia departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 53% at worst → 0% now

\n \n

Of 30 departures that took off between 10:26 AM and 11:26 AM EST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 15% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 25% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 10:26 AM–11:26 AM ESTSample 30 flightsLate 0%Typical 15%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=PHL"}