{"items":[{"id":11708,"event_id":4850,"slug":"4850-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 8 among Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:17.279427Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"41 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:16.533924Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"41 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNDo1NjoxNy4yNzk0MjcrMDA6MDB8MTE3MDg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.6,"target":"PHL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11708,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11645,"event_id":4792,"slug":"4792-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 75 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:57:22.289951Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:57:21.263761Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMzo1NzoyMi4yODk5NTErMDA6MDB8MTE2NDU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.1,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":75,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":11645,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11523,"event_id":4737,"slug":"4737-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia arrival delays worsen: 83% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:14 PM and 9:14 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 22 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 54%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"61% → 54% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:25:48.000321Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:25:46.599458Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMToyNTo0OC4wMDAzMjErMDA6MDB8MTE0NzE","forecast":{"p_pct":"54%","expected_cancellations":5.8,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":11471,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11337,"event_id":4469,"slug":"4469-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 64 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:56:11.344239Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:56:10.342678Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMjo1NjoxMS4zNDQyMzkrMDA6MDB8MTEzMzc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.9,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":64,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":10,"latest_update_id":11337,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":10,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11299,"event_id":4671,"slug":"4671-phl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia departure delays ease: 61% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 23 departures that took off between 4:15 PM and 5:15 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 68% → 61%","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:15:13.002477Z","time":"5:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:15 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:15:00Z","time":"5:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:15:11.969882Z","time":"5:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:15 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMjoxNToxMy4wMDI0NzcrMDA6MDB8MTEyOTk","measurement":{"window":"4:15 PM–5:15 PM EST","n":23,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"61%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":17.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11299,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11019,"event_id":4433,"slug":"4433-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.856183Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1MS44NTYxODMrMDA6MDB8MTEwMTk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.4,"target":"PHL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":11019,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10914,"event_id":4653,"slug":"4653-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 22 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 3","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.635044Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS42MzUwNDQrMDA6MDB8MTA5MTQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10914,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10801,"event_id":4432,"slug":"4432-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 18 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.131993Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMzE5OTMrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":17.6,"target":"PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10801,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10800,"event_id":4537,"slug":"4537-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 56% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.124248Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMjQyNDgrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDA","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":26.1,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10800,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10799,"event_id":4431,"slug":"4431-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 57%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 57% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.118796Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMTg3OTYrMDA6MDB8MTA3OTk","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":21.7,"target":"PHL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10799,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10798,"event_id":4430,"slug":"4430-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 54%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"43% → 54% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.113099Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4xMTMwOTkrMDA6MDB8MTA3OTg","forecast":{"p_pct":"54%","expected_cancellations":17.6,"target":"PHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10798,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10364,"event_id":4468,"slug":"4468-phl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 34%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 34% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.025385Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wMjUzODUrMDA6MDB8MTAzNjQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"34%","expected_cancellations":20.3,"target":"PHL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":62,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10364,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10122,"event_id":4298,"slug":"4298-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 20 among Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (33%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 20 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:05.258208Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS4yNTgyMDgrMDA6MDB8MTAxMjI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":20.2,"target":"PHL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":61,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10122,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10121,"event_id":4180,"slug":"4180-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 77 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 28 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:05.253504Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS4yNTM1MDQrMDA6MDB8MTAxMjE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":27.6,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":77,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10121,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9630,"event_id":4238,"slug":"4238-phl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Philadelphia departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 9:41 PM and 10:41 PM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:41:59.066974Z","time":"10:41 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:41 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:41:00Z","time":"10:41 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:41 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:41:58.304172Z","time":"10:41 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:41 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo0MTo1OS4wNjY5NzQrMDA6MDB8OTYzMA","measurement":{"window":"9:41 PM–10:41 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":182.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9630,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9495,"event_id":4097,"slug":"4097-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 31 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 13 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.594297Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS41OTQyOTcrMDA6MDB8OTQ5NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":12.9,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9495,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9494,"event_id":3818,"slug":"3818-phl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 72%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"83% → 72% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.590094Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS41OTAwOTQrMDA6MDB8OTQ5NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"72%","expected_cancellations":12.9,"target":"PHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9494,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9428,"event_id":4037,"slug":"4037-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 22 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 73 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 25 → 22 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:57:31.963128Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:57:30.715189Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo1NzozMS45NjMxMjgrMDA6MDB8OTQyOA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":22.3,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":73,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9428,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9312,"event_id":3788,"slug":"3788-phl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 90%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Friday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"51% → 90% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.191589Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4xOTE1ODkrMDA6MDB8OTMxMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"90%","expected_cancellations":24.9,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":74,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9312,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNDo1NjoxNy4yNzk0MjcrMDA6MDB8MTE3MDg","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n PHL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Updated model now expects about 8 among Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n ▲ about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n PHL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n ▼ about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n PHL\n ARR\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Philadelphia arrival delays worsen: 83% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 53% → 83%\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n PHL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

\n ~6 cancellations\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +5Show all 5 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n PHL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 54%

\n ▼ 61% → 54% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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\n +10Show all 10 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n PHL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n ▲ about 8 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast\n
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\n +4Show all 4 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n PHL\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Philadelphia departure delays ease: 61% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 68% → 61%\n
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\n +5Show all 5 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n PHL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n ▼ about 10 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n PHL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday to about 3

\n about 8 → 3\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n PHL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n ▲ about 5 → 18 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n PHL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 56%

\n ▲ 44% → 56% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n PHL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 57%

\n ▲ 47% → 57% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)\n
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\n +4Show all 4 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n PHL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 54%

\n ▲ 43% → 54% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n PHL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 34%

\n ▼ 47% → 34% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n PHL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 20 among Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n ▲ about 5 → 20 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast\n
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\n +4Show all 4 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n PHL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n ▲ about 7 → 28 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n PHL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Philadelphia departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 100% late\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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\n +Show details\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n RESOLVED · LATE\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n PHL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n ▲ about 9 → 13 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n PHL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 72%

\n ▼ 83% → 72% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n PHL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 22 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n ▼ about 25 → 22 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +4Show all 4 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n PHL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 90%

\n ▲ 51% → 90% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

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\n +Show details\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n \n A+D\n RESTRICT\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

\n \n
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"],"filters":"airport=PHL&view=terminal"}