{"items":[{"id":13231,"event_id":5192,"slug":"5192-phx-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 107 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 10 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 112 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 150 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 14 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM MST forecast","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:38.172705Z","time":"6:26 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:26 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:37.113811Z","time":"6:26 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:26 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoyNjozOC4xNzI3MDUrMDA6MDB8MTIzNjA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":13.7,"target":"PHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":150,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12360,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11999,"event_id":4809,"slug":"4809-phx-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM MST forecast","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:26:18.823696Z","time":"1:26 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:26 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:26:12.179045Z","time":"1:26 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:26 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDoyNjoxOC44MjM2OTYrMDA6MDB8MTExMzU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.4,"target":"PHX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":53,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11135,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11134,"event_id":4528,"slug":"4528-phx-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 15 → 22 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM MST forecast","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:26:18.818838Z","time":"1:26 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:26 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:26:12.179045Z","time":"1:26 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:26 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDoyNjoxOC44MTg4MzgrMDA6MDB8MTExMzQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":21.6,"target":"PHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":122,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11134,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11007,"event_id":4366,"slug":"4366-phx-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 104 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 15 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM MST forecast","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.687260Z","time":"11:55 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:55 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"11:55 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:55 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1MS42ODcyNjArMDA6MDB8MTEwMDc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":14.6,"target":"PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":104,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":11007,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10476,"event_id":4319,"slug":"4319-phx-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 41 → 15 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM MST forecast","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:07.376974Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:05.802777Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDoyNjowNy4zNzY5NzQrMDA6MDB8MTA0NzY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":15.4,"target":"PHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":138,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10476,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10091,"event_id":4252,"slug":"4252-phx-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 87 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 30 → 6 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM MST forecast","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.652932Z","time":"3:56 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:56 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"3:56 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:56 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC42NTI5MzIrMDA6MDB8MTAwOTE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.7,"target":"PHX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":87,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10091,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9772,"event_id":4318,"slug":"4318-phx-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among Phoenix departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 16 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (40%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.864896Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:56 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.362127Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:56 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NjozNS44NjQ4OTYrMDA6MDB8OTc3Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.4,"target":"PHX departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":16,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9772,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9575,"event_id":4199,"slug":"4199-phx-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 45 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.490657Z","time":"7:57 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:57 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"7:57 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:57 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy40OTA2NTcrMDA6MDB8OTU3NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.7,"target":"PHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":45,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9575,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9477,"event_id":4153,"slug":"4153-phx-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 10 cancellations among Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 91 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.418784Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"46 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:57 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"47 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"46 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:57 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS40MTg3ODQrMDA6MDB8OTQ3Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.9,"target":"PHX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":91,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"47 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9477,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9265,"event_id":4080,"slug":"4080-phx-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 113 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.950872Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS45NTA4NzIrMDA6MDB8OTI2NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.6,"target":"PHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":113,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9265,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQyMTo1NzozMi4wOTkwMTArMDA6MDB8MTMyMzE","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 15\n 20 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 12 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM MST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 107 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 13 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM MST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 120 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~13 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 15\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 9 among Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM MST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 77 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 15\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 10 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM MST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 112 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 15\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 14 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM MST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 150 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 15\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 13 → 8 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM MST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM MST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 15 → 22 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM MST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 122 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~22 cancellationsHorizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 14\n 27 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 10 → 15 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM MST forecast

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 104 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n \n MST, Nov 14\n 31 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

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What changed: about 41 → 15 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM MST forecast

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n \n MST, Nov 14\n 35 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Saturday

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What changed: about 30 → 6 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM MST forecast

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 87 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n \n MST, Nov 13\n 40 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 6 cancellations among Phoenix departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 16 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (40%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n \n MST, Nov 13\n 43 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 8 cancellations among Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 45 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n \n MST, Nov 13\n 46 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 10 cancellations among Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 91 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n \n MST, Nov 13\n 2 days ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 8 cancellations among Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 113 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=PHX"}