{"items":[{"id":8769,"event_id":3866,"slug":"3866-phx-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix arrivals running late: 47% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 arrivals that landed between 11:30 PM and 12:30 AM MST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:30:34.369802Z","time":"12:30 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:30 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:30 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:30:00Z","time":"12:30 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:30 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:30:34.121377Z","time":"12:30 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:30 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:30 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNzozMDozNC4zNjk4MDIrMDA6MDB8ODc2OQ","measurement":{"window":"11:30 PM–12:30 AM MST","n":19,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"47%","baseline_pct":"20%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":11.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8769,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8767,"event_id":3865,"slug":"3865-phx-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix departures running late: 47% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 11:14 PM and 12:14 AM MST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:14:21.020532Z","time":"12:14 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:14 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:14 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:14:00Z","time":"12:14 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:14 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:14 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:14:20.923543Z","time":"12:14 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:14 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:14 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNzoxNDoyMS4wMjA1MzIrMDA6MDB8ODc2Nw","measurement":{"window":"11:14 PM–12:14 AM MST","n":15,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"47%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":13.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8767,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8062,"event_id":3530,"slug":"3530-phx-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix arrivals running late: 44% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:53 PM and 12:53 AM MST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T07:53:19.744992Z","time":"12:53 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:53 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 07:53 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T07:53:00Z","time":"12:53 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:53 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 07:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T07:53:19.447106Z","time":"12:53 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:53 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 07:53 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNzo1MzoxOS43NDQ5OTIrMDA6MDB8ODA2Mg","measurement":{"window":"11:53 PM–12:53 AM MST","n":16,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"44%","baseline_pct":"20%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":12.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8062,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8041,"event_id":3523,"slug":"3523-phx-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix departures running late: 57% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 9:17 PM and 10:17 PM MST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:17:21.363509Z","time":"10:17 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:17 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:17 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:17:00Z","time":"10:17 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:17 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:17 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:17:21.130353Z","time":"10:17 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:17 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:17 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNToxNzoyMS4zNjM1MDkrMDA6MDB8ODA0MQ","measurement":{"window":"9:17 PM–10:17 PM MST","n":14,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"57%","baseline_pct":"34%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":38.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8041,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7863,"event_id":3386,"slug":"3386-phx-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix departures back near normal: 6% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 departures that took off between 5:52 AM and 6:52 AM MST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 15% for 30 minutes across 15 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 68% at worst → 6% now","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T13:52:59.939122Z","time":"6:52 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:52 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 13:52 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T13:52:00Z","time":"6:52 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:52 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 13:52 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T13:52:59.557424Z","time":"6:52 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:52 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 13:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxMzo1Mjo1OS45MzkxMjIrMDA6MDB8Nzg2Mw","measurement":{"window":"5:52 AM–6:52 AM MST","n":17,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"6%","baseline_pct":"5%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7863,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7486,"event_id":3252,"slug":"3252-phx-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix arrivals running late: 57% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:56 PM and 12:56 AM MST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T07:56:41.837794Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:56 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 07:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T07:56:00Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:56 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 07:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T07:56:41.753164Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:56 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 07:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNzo1Njo0MS44Mzc3OTQrMDA6MDB8NzQ4Ng","measurement":{"window":"11:56 PM–12:56 AM MST","n":14,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"57%","baseline_pct":"20%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":35.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7486,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7480,"event_id":3248,"slug":"3248-phx-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix departures running late: 43% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 10:55 PM and 11:55 PM MST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T06:55:57.945045Z","time":"11:55 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:55 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 06:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T06:55:00Z","time":"11:55 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:55 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 06:55 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T06:55:57.852184Z","time":"11:55 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:55 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 06:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNjo1NTo1Ny45NDUwNDUrMDA6MDB8NzQ4MA","measurement":{"window":"10:55 PM–11:55 PM MST","n":14,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"43%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":13.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7480,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7475,"event_id":3237,"slug":"3237-phx-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix departures back near normal: 25% late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 10:15 PM and 11:15 PM MST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 69% at worst → 25% now","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T06:15:22.794101Z","time":"11:15 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:15 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 06:15 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T06:15:00Z","time":"11:15 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:15 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 06:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T06:15:22.624027Z","time":"11:15 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:15 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 06:15 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNjoxNToyMi43OTQxMDErMDA6MDB8NzQ3NQ","measurement":{"window":"10:15 PM–11:15 PM MST","n":20,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"25%","baseline_pct":"31%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7475,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6921,"event_id":2992,"slug":"2992-phx-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix arrivals back near normal: 3% late in the last hour","body":"Of 29 arrivals that landed between 6:21 AM and 7:21 AM MST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 50% at worst → 3% now","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T14:21:34.590421Z","time":"7:21 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:21 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 14:21 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T14:21:00Z","time":"7:21 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:21 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 14:21 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T14:21:34.276582Z","time":"7:21 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:21 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 14:21 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNDoyMTozNC41OTA0MjErMDA6MDB8NjkyMQ","measurement":{"window":"6:21 AM–7:21 AM MST","n":29,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"3%","baseline_pct":"20%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-16.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6921,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6892,"event_id":2995,"slug":"2995-phx-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix departures back near normal: 6% late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 5:34 AM and 6:34 AM MST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 15% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 50% at worst → 6% now","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T13:34:15.433975Z","time":"6:34 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:34 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 13:34 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T13:34:00Z","time":"6:34 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:34 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 13:34 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T13:34:14.598816Z","time":"6:34 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:34 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 13:34 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxMzozNDoxNS40MzM5NzUrMDA6MDB8Njg5Mg","measurement":{"window":"5:34 AM–6:34 AM MST","n":16,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"6%","baseline_pct":"5%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6892,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6644,"event_id":2888,"slug":"2888-phx-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix departures back near normal: 19% late in the last hour","body":"Of 48 departures that took off between 11:07 AM and 12:07 PM MST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 47% at worst → 19% now","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T19:07:35.060707Z","time":"12:07 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 12:07 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 19:07 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T19:07:00Z","time":"12:07 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 12:07 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 19:07 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T19:07:34.814436Z","time":"12:07 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 12:07 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 19:07 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxOTowNzozNS4wNjA3MDcrMDA6MDB8NjY0NA","measurement":{"window":"11:07 AM–12:07 PM MST","n":48,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"19%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6644,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6509,"event_id":2821,"slug":"2821-phx-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix departures back near normal: 9% late in the last hour","body":"Of 34 departures that took off between 12:30 PM and 1:30 PM MST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 45% at worst → 9% now","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T20:30:09.394698Z","time":"1:30 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 1:30 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 20:30 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-04T20:30:00Z","time":"1:30 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 1:30 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 20:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-04T20:30:09.132754Z","time":"1:30 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 1:30 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 20:30 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQyMDozMDowOS4zOTQ2OTgrMDA6MDB8NjUwOQ","measurement":{"window":"12:30 PM–1:30 PM MST","n":34,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"9%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6509,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6124,"event_id":2693,"slug":"2693-phx-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Phoenix","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Phoenix (PHX) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 10:54 AM MST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 10:24 AM MST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T17:58:41.046904Z","time":"10:58 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:58 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 17:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T17:54:56.147000Z","time":"10:54 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:54 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 17:54 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T17:58:40.677357Z","time":"10:58 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:58 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 17:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxNzo1ODo0MS4wNDY5MDQrMDA6MDB8NjEyNA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6124,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5996,"event_id":2636,"slug":"2636-phx-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 36%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 172 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"48% → 36%; calm-weather level 28%","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T10:58:37.905496Z","time":"3:58 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:58 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 10:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T10:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T10:58:36.606520Z","time":"3:58 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:58 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 10:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxMDo1ODozNy45MDU0OTYrMDA6MDB8NTk5Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"36%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":172,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-03T10:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5996,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5932,"event_id":2599,"slug":"2599-phx-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix departures back near normal: 24% late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 departures that took off between 10:24 PM and 11:24 PM MST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 81% at worst → 24% now","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T06:24:39.480239Z","time":"11:24 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:24 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 06:24 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T06:24:00Z","time":"11:24 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:24 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 06:24 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T06:24:39.255818Z","time":"11:24 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:24 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 06:24 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QwNjoyNDozOS40ODAyMzkrMDA6MDB8NTkzMg","measurement":{"window":"10:24 PM–11:24 PM MST","n":21,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"24%","baseline_pct":"31%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":5932,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5866,"event_id":2588,"slug":"2588-phx-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix arrivals running late: 42% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 arrivals that landed between 7:42 PM and 8:42 PM MST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T03:42:23.726367Z","time":"8:42 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 8:42 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 03:42 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T03:42:00Z","time":"8:42 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 8:42 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 03:42 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T03:42:23.267288Z","time":"8:42 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 8:42 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 03:42 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QwMzo0MjoyMy43MjYzNjcrMDA6MDB8NTg2Ng","measurement":{"window":"7:42 PM–8:42 PM MST","n":19,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"42%","baseline_pct":"20%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5866,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5782,"event_id":2548,"slug":"2548-phx-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 5:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T01:26:23.036020Z","time":"6:26 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:26 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 01:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T00:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 5:00 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T01:26:21.532429Z","time":"6:26 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:26 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 01:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QwMToyNjoyMy4wMzYwMjArMDA6MDB8NTc4Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"58%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"PHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":67,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-03T00:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 5:00 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5782,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5579,"event_id":2460,"slug":"2460-phx-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 182 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 11:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T19:26:58.927177Z","time":"12:26 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 12:26 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 19:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T18:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T19:26:55.329169Z","time":"12:26 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 12:26 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 19:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxOToyNjo1OC45MjcxNzcrMDA6MDB8NTU3OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":2.1,"target":"PHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":182,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T18:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5579,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5575,"event_id":2459,"slug":"2459-phx-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Phoenix","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Phoenix (PHX) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 12:08 PM MST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 11:59 AM MST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T19:12:29.089979Z","time":"12:12 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 12:12 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 19:12 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T19:08:34.860000Z","time":"12:08 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 12:08 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 19:08 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T19:12:29.045573Z","time":"12:12 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 12:12 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 19:12 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxOToxMjoyOS4wODk5NzkrMDA6MDB8NTU3NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5575,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5570,"event_id":2441,"slug":"2441-phx-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix departures back near normal: 17% late in the last hour","body":"Of 46 departures that took off between 11:02 AM and 12:02 PM MST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 50% at worst → 17% now","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T19:02:13.996866Z","time":"12:02 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 12:02 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 19:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T19:02:00Z","time":"12:02 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 12:02 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 19:02 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T19:02:13.070427Z","time":"12:02 PM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 12:02 PM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 19:02 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxOTowMjoxMy45OTY4NjYrMDA6MDB8NTU3MA","measurement":{"window":"11:02 AM–12:02 PM MST","n":46,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"17%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5570,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5511,"event_id":2428,"slug":"2428-phx-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Phoenix","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Phoenix (PHX) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 10:50 AM MST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 10:17 AM MST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:54:05.760665Z","time":"10:54 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 10:54 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:50:57.013000Z","time":"10:50 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 10:50 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:50 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:54:05.716352Z","time":"10:54 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 10:54 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxNzo1NDowNS43NjA2NjUrMDA6MDB8NTUxMQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5511,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5473,"event_id":2412,"slug":"2412-phx-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 146 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 9:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T16:58:15.103348Z","time":"9:58 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:58 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 16:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T16:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T16:58:07.746406Z","time":"9:58 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:58 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 16:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxNjo1ODoxNS4xMDMzNDgrMDA6MDB8NTQ3Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":1.5,"target":"PHX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":146,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T16:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5473,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5383,"event_id":2230,"slug":"2230-phx-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 arrivals that landed between 6:15 AM and 7:15 AM MST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 85% at worst → 0% now","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T14:15:10.746856Z","time":"7:15 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 7:15 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 14:15 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T14:15:00Z","time":"7:15 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 7:15 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 14:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T14:15:10.287377Z","time":"7:15 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 7:15 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 14:15 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxNDoxNToxMC43NDY4NTYrMDA6MDB8NTM4Mw","measurement":{"window":"6:15 AM–7:15 AM MST","n":22,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"20%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-16.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":5383,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5351,"event_id":2337,"slug":"2337-phx-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 39%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 168 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Monday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"48% → 39%; calm-weather level 32%","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T13:58:40.391030Z","time":"6:58 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:58 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 13:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T12:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 5:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T13:58:34.605148Z","time":"6:58 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:58 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 13:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxMzo1ODo0MC4zOTEwMzArMDA6MDB8NTM1MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"39%","expected_cancellations":1.3,"target":"PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":168,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T12:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 5:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5351,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5349,"event_id":2117,"slug":"2117-phx-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Phoenix departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 5:54 AM and 6:54 AM MST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 15% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 100% at worst → 0% now","airports":["PHX"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T13:54:12.405390Z","time":"6:54 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:54 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 13:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T13:54:00Z","time":"6:54 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:54 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 13:54 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T13:54:11.655435Z","time":"6:54 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:54 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 13:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxMzo1NDoxMi40MDUzOTArMDA6MDB8NTM0OQ","measurement":{"window":"5:54 AM–6:54 AM MST","n":14,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"5%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-3.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":9,"latest_update_id":5349,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":9,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxMzo1NDoxMi40MDUzOTArMDA6MDB8NTM0OQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNzozMDozNC4zNjk4MDIrMDA6MDB8ODc2OQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 13\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n PHX\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Phoenix arrivals running late: 47% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 19 arrivals that landed between 11:30 PM and 12:30 AM MST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:30 PM–12:30 AM MSTSample 19 flightsLate 47%Typical 20%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 13\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Phoenix departures running late: 47% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 15 departures that took off between 11:14 PM and 12:14 AM MST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:14 PM–12:14 AM MSTSample 15 flightsLate 47%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 10\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n PHX\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Phoenix arrivals running late: 44% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:53 PM and 12:53 AM MST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:53 PM–12:53 AM MSTSample 16 flightsLate 44%Typical 20%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Phoenix departures running late: 57% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 departures that took off between 9:17 PM and 10:17 PM MST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:17 PM–10:17 PM MSTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 34%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Phoenix departures back near normal: 6% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 68% at worst → 6% now

\n \n

Of 17 departures that took off between 5:52 AM and 6:52 AM MST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 15% for 30 minutes across 15 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 5:52 AM–6:52 AM MSTSample 17 flightsLate 6%Typical 5%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 7\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n PHX\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Phoenix arrivals running late: 57% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:56 PM and 12:56 AM MST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:56 PM–12:56 AM MSTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 20%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Phoenix departures running late: 43% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 departures that took off between 10:55 PM and 11:55 PM MST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:55 PM–11:55 PM MSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Phoenix departures back near normal: 25% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 69% at worst → 25% now

\n \n

Of 20 departures that took off between 10:15 PM and 11:15 PM MST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 10:15 PM–11:15 PM MSTSample 20 flightsLate 25%Typical 31%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHX\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Phoenix arrivals back near normal: 3% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% at worst → 3% now

\n \n

Of 29 arrivals that landed between 6:21 AM and 7:21 AM MST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 6:21 AM–7:21 AM MSTSample 29 flightsLate 3%Typical 20%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Phoenix departures back near normal: 6% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% at worst → 6% now

\n \n

Of 16 departures that took off between 5:34 AM and 6:34 AM MST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 15% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 5:34 AM–6:34 AM MSTSample 16 flightsLate 6%Typical 5%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n MST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Phoenix departures back near normal: 19% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 47% at worst → 19% now

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Of 48 departures that took off between 11:07 AM and 12:07 PM MST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 11:07 AM–12:07 PM MSTSample 48 flightsLate 19%Typical 21%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 4\n 8 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Phoenix departures back near normal: 9% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 45% at worst → 9% now

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Of 34 departures that took off between 12:30 PM and 1:30 PM MST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 12:30 PM–1:30 PM MSTSample 34 flightsLate 9%Typical 24%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at Phoenix

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What changed: departure delays no longer listed

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FAA-reported departure delays at Phoenix (PHX) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 10:54 AM MST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 10:24 AM MST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 3\n 10 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 36%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 36%, near normal

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What changed: 48% → 36%; calm-weather level 28%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 172 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 36%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Phoenix departures back near normal: 24% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 81% at worst → 24% now

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Of 21 departures that took off between 10:24 PM and 11:24 PM MST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 10:24 PM–11:24 PM MSTSample 21 flightsLate 24%Typical 31%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n PHX\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Phoenix arrivals running late: 42% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 19 arrivals that landed between 7:42 PM and 8:42 PM MST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 7:42 PM–8:42 PM MSTSample 19 flightsLate 42%Typical 20%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 58%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 5:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 58%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 55%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Monday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 182 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 11:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 55%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at Phoenix

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What changed: departure delays no longer listed

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FAA-reported departure delays at Phoenix (PHX) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 12:08 PM MST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 11:59 AM MST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Phoenix departures back near normal: 17% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 50% at worst → 17% now

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Of 46 departures that took off between 11:02 AM and 12:02 PM MST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 11:02 AM–12:02 PM MSTSample 46 flightsLate 17%Typical 21%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at Phoenix

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What changed: departure delays no longer listed

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FAA-reported departure delays at Phoenix (PHX) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 10:50 AM MST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 10:17 AM MST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 56%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Monday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 146 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 9:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 56%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHX\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Phoenix arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 85% at worst → 0% now

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Of 22 arrivals that landed between 6:15 AM and 7:15 AM MST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 6:15 AM–7:15 AM MSTSample 22 flightsLate 0%Typical 20%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 39%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 39%, near normal

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What changed: 48% → 39%; calm-weather level 32%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 168 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Monday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 39%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n MST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n PHX\n departures\n \n \n
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Phoenix departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 100% at worst → 0% now

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Of 14 departures that took off between 5:54 AM and 6:54 AM MST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 15% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 5:54 AM–6:54 AM MSTSample 14 flightsLate 0%Typical 5%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (9)\n 8 earlier matching updates\n View PHX\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=PHX"}