Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 34 of the 124 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
\n \nLoading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 30 of the 102 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
\n \nLoading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 41 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
\n \nTailodds’ model gives the 124 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nLoading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nLoading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 138 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 4:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nLoading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 87 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
\n \nAdding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 16 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (40%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
\n \nOf 15 arrivals that landed between 9:44 PM and 10:44 PM MST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
\nTailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Phoenix midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 8:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nLoading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 8:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nOf 16 departures that took off between 7:25 PM and 8:25 PM MST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
\nAdding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 45 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
\n \nThe FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
\nThe FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
\nAdding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 91 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
\n \nLoading earlier updates…
FAA-reported departure delays at Phoenix (PHX) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 3:00 PM MST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 1:52 PM MST.
\n \nAdding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 113 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
\n \nLoading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nTailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nThe FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
\nThe FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
\nOf the 58 departures scheduled from Phoenix (PHX) between 1:33 PM and 3:03 PM MST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 39. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
\nLoading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 12:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nLoading earlier updates…
Of 46 departures that took off between 11:15 AM and 12:15 PM MST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
\n