{"items":[{"id":10594,"event_id":4487,"slug":"4487-rdu-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Raleigh/Durham departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 35 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (34%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 10 cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 26 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 51%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:05.556731Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS41NTY3MzErMDA6MDB8MTAxNTE","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":4.8,"target":"RDU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":38,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10151,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9981,"event_id":4221,"slug":"4221-rdu-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 3 → 3","airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.831261Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.231271Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC44MzEyNjErMDA6MDB8OTk4MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.9,"target":"RDU departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":52,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9981,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9335,"event_id":4108,"slug":"4108-rdu-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 11 cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 43 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.431890Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC40MzE4OTArMDA6MDB8OTMzNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.4,"target":"RDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":43,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9335,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9334,"event_id":3914,"slug":"3914-rdu-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 84%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 84% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.426568Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC40MjY1NjgrMDA6MDB8OTMzNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"84%","expected_cancellations":11.4,"target":"RDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":43,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9334,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8992,"event_id":3953,"slug":"3953-rdu-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Raleigh/Durham departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 10:42 AM and 11:42 AM EST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:42:32.310105Z","time":"11:42 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:42 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:42 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:42:00Z","time":"11:42 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:42 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:42 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:42:31.453542Z","time":"11:42 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:42 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:42 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNjo0MjozMi4zMTAxMDUrMDA6MDB8ODk5Mg","measurement":{"window":"10:42 AM–11:42 AM EST","n":14,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":16.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8992,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8982,"event_id":3946,"slug":"3946-rdu-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:39.956552Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:38.542413Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTo1NzozOS45NTY1NTIrMDA6MDB8ODk4Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"RDU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":50,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8982,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8981,"event_id":3945,"slug":"3945-rdu-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:39.952738Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:38.542413Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTo1NzozOS45NTI3MzgrMDA6MDB8ODk4MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8981,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8692,"event_id":3844,"slug":"3844-rdu-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Raleigh/Durham arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:23 PM and 11:23 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Raleigh/Durham arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:23:19.877161Z","time":"11:23 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:23 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:23 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:23:00Z","time":"11:23 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:23 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:23 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:23:19.170915Z","time":"11:23 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:23 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:23 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDoyMzoxOS44NzcxNjErMDA6MDB8ODY5Mg","measurement":{"window":"10:23 PM–11:23 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"46%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8692,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8532,"event_id":3767,"slug":"3767-rdu-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Raleigh/Durham departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 6:22 PM and 7:22 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:22:11.084884Z","time":"7:22 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:22 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:22 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:22:00Z","time":"7:22 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:22 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:22 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:22:10.610425Z","time":"7:22 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:22 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:22 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMDoyMjoxMS4wODQ4ODQrMDA6MDB8ODUzMg","measurement":{"window":"6:22 PM–7:22 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"62%","baseline_pct":"33%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":31.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8532,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8490,"event_id":3670,"slug":"3670-rdu-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Thursday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 61% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:45.974130Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:44.677675Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjo1Nzo0NS45NzQxMzArMDA6MDB8ODQ5MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":2.0,"target":"RDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":43,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8490,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8284,"event_id":3635,"slug":"3635-rdu-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Thursday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 31%; calm-weather level 18%","airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T11:57:15.958929Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T11:57:15.454943Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxMTo1NzoxNS45NTg5MjkrMDA6MDB8ODI4NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8284,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8279,"event_id":3636,"slug":"3636-rdu-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Thursday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T10:57:32.012273Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 10:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T10:57:31.564465Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 10:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxMDo1NzozMi4wMTIyNzMrMDA6MDB8ODI3OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"RDU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":47,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8279,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7980,"event_id":3501,"slug":"3501-rdu-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Raleigh/Durham departures running late: 57% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 5:59 PM and 6:59 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:59:42.178404Z","time":"6:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:59:00Z","time":"6:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:59:40.354957Z","time":"6:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMzo1OTo0Mi4xNzg0MDQrMDA6MDB8Nzk4MA","measurement":{"window":"5:59 PM–6:59 PM EST","n":14,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"57%","baseline_pct":"33%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":24.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7980,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7953,"event_id":3469,"slug":"3469-rdu-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Raleigh/Durham departures back near normal: 21% late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 4:17 PM and 5:17 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 50% at worst → 21% now","airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:17:02.018339Z","time":"5:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:17 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:17:00Z","time":"5:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:17 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:17:00.741035Z","time":"5:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:17 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMjoxNzowMi4wMTgzMzkrMDA6MDB8Nzk1Mw","measurement":{"window":"4:17 PM–5:17 PM EST","n":14,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"21%","baseline_pct":"29%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7953,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMjoxNzowMi4wMTgzMzkrMDA6MDB8Nzk1Mw","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzoxMC4yNjk2NzQrMDA6MDB8MTA1OTQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 11 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Raleigh/Durham departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 13 → 12 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 35 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (34%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 10 cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 26 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Raleigh/Durham departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 9 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 26 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 51%

\n

What changed: 40% → 51% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 14 cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 38 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 AM Saturday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 3 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 52 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n Late report\n
\n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 11 cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 43 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 84%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 84%

\n

What changed: 42% → 84% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 84%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 18 h ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 18 h ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 22 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Raleigh/Durham departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 14 departures that took off between 10:42 AM and 11:42 AM EST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 10:42 AM–11:42 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 18%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 23 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 3–6 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 42%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 23 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures noon–3 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 44%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 34 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Raleigh/Durham arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:23 PM and 11:23 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Raleigh/Durham arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 10:23 PM–11:23 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 23%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 38 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Raleigh/Durham departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 13 departures that took off between 6:22 PM and 7:22 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 6:22 PM–7:22 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 62%Typical 33%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 40 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 61%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 61%

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What changed: 45% → 61% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Thursday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 61%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 31%, near normal

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What changed: 41% → 31%; calm-weather level 18%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Thursday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 31%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 3–6 PM Thursday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Thursday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 42%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Raleigh/Durham departures running late: 57% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 14 departures that took off between 5:59 PM and 6:59 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 5:59 PM–6:59 PM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 33%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Raleigh/Durham departures back near normal: 21% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 50% at worst → 21% now

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Of 14 departures that took off between 4:17 PM and 5:17 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 4:17 PM–5:17 PM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 21%Typical 29%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"airport=RDU"}