{"items":[{"id":10827,"event_id":4559,"slug":"4559-rdu-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 54%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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Raleigh/Durham typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). 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Typically 23% of arrivals at Raleigh/Durham arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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Raleigh/Durham typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). 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Raleigh/Durham typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"56% → 61% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:56:00.836825Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:55:59.164561Z","time":"5:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMjo1NjowMC44MzY4MjUrMDA6MDB8NzI2Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"RDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":56,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7263,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7107,"event_id":3089,"slug":"3089-rdu-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Raleigh/Durham arrivals back near normal: 8% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 1:15 PM and 2:15 PM EST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Raleigh/Durham arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 50% at worst → 8% now","airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T19:15:09.518526Z","time":"2:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 19:15 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T19:15:00Z","time":"2:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 19:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T19:15:08.232731Z","time":"2:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 19:15 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxOToxNTowOS41MTg1MjYrMDA6MDB8NzEwNw","measurement":{"window":"1:15 PM–2:15 PM EST","n":12,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"8%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7107,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7062,"event_id":2920,"slug":"2920-rdu-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 62%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"54% → 62% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T17:57:35.322065Z","time":"12:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 12:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 17:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T17:57:34.098447Z","time":"12:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 12:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 17:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNzo1NzozNS4zMjIwNjUrMDA6MDB8NzA2Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"62%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"RDU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":63,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7062,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7020,"event_id":2907,"slug":"2907-rdu-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"52% → 56% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:05.957327Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:02.771516Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNjo1NjowNS45NTczMjcrMDA6MDB8NzAyMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":1.0,"target":"RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":49,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7020,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6711,"event_id":2912,"slug":"2912-rdu-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Raleigh/Durham departures back near normal: 27% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 6:56 PM and 7:56 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 56% at worst → 27% now","airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T00:56:38.669294Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 7:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 00:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T00:56:00Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 7:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 00:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T00:56:36.758487Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 7:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 00:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQwMDo1NjozOC42NjkyOTQrMDA6MDB8NjcxMQ","measurement":{"window":"6:56 PM–7:56 PM EST","n":15,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"27%","baseline_pct":"36%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6711,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6611,"event_id":2869,"slug":"2869-rdu-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 34%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Thursday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 34%; calm-weather level 26%","airports":["RDU"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T14:27:11.714020Z","time":"9:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 9:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 14:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T14:27:10.652185Z","time":"9:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 9:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 14:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxNDoyNzoxMS43MTQwMjArMDA6MDB8NjYxMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"34%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"RDU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":59,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6611,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxNDoyNzoxMS43MTQwMjArMDA6MDB8NjYxMQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4zNzMyNDQrMDA6MDB8MTA4Mjc","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 54%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 54%

\n

What changed: 44% → 54% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 54%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 56%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 56%

\n

What changed: 48% → 56% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 56%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 51%

\n

What changed: 40% → 51% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 84%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 84%

\n

What changed: 42% → 84% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 84%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 24 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Raleigh/Durham departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 departures that took off between 10:42 AM and 11:42 AM EST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:42 AM–11:42 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 18%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 36 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Raleigh/Durham arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:23 PM and 11:23 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Raleigh/Durham arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:23 PM–11:23 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 40 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Raleigh/Durham departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 13 departures that took off between 6:22 PM and 7:22 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 6:22 PM–7:22 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 62%Typical 33%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 42 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 61%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 61%

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What changed: 45% → 61% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Thursday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 61%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 31%, near normal

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What changed: 41% → 31%; calm-weather level 18%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Thursday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 31%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 3–6 PM Thursday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Thursday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 42%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Raleigh/Durham departures running late: 57% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 14 departures that took off between 5:59 PM and 6:59 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 5:59 PM–6:59 PM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 33%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Raleigh/Durham departures back near normal: 21% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 50% at worst → 21% now

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Of 14 departures that took off between 4:17 PM and 5:17 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 4:17 PM–5:17 PM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 21%Typical 29%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 32%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 32%, near normal

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What changed: 41% → 32%; calm-weather level 27%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Saturday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 32%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 41%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 3–6 PM Saturday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 41%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 7 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n RDU\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Raleigh/Durham arrival delays ease: 53% late in the last hour, still above normal

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What changed: late share 62% → 53%

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Of 15 arrivals that landed between 11:01 PM and 12:01 AM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Raleigh/Durham arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 11:01 PM–12:01 AM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 53%Typical 23%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Raleigh/Durham departure delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal

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What changed: late share 75% → 50%

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Of 12 departures that took off between 6:42 PM and 7:42 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 6:42 PM–7:42 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 36%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 61%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 61%

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What changed: 56% → 61% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 61%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n RDU\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Raleigh/Durham arrivals back near normal: 8% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 50% at worst → 8% now

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Of 12 arrivals that landed between 1:15 PM and 2:15 PM EST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Raleigh/Durham arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 1:15 PM–2:15 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 8%Typical 23%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 62%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 62%

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What changed: 54% → 62% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 62%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 8 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 56%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 56%

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What changed: 52% → 56% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 56%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 5\n 8 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Raleigh/Durham departures back near normal: 27% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 56% at worst → 27% now

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Of 15 departures that took off between 6:56 PM and 7:56 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 6:56 PM–7:56 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 27%Typical 36%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 5\n 9 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 34%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n RDU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 34%, near normal

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What changed: 41% → 34%; calm-weather level 26%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Thursday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 34%Horizon 5.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View RDU\n \n \n
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