{"items":[{"id":10274,"event_id":4504,"slug":"4504-san-weather","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at San Diego","body":"The 3:58 AM PST official weather observation (METAR) for San Diego (SAN) reports light rain, ceiling 900 ft, visibility 9 mi, wind 3 kt gusting to 14 kt. Coded weather: “-RA”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:06:05.662764Z","time":"4:06 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:06 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:58:00Z","time":"3:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:58 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:06:05.060262Z","time":"4:06 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:06 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMjowNjowNS42NjI3NjQrMDA6MDB8MTAyNzQ","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","3:58 AM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSAN 141158Z 26003G14KT 9SM -RA BKN009 OVC019 18/17 A2985 RMK AO2 P0000 T01830172"],["Station","KSAN at Sat Nov 14, 3:58 AM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10274,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSAN&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10239,"event_id":4327,"slug":"4327-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 67 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.431971Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC40MzE5NzErMDA6MDB8MTAyMzk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.6,"target":"SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":67,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10239,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10036,"event_id":4217,"slug":"4217-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among San Diego departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:30.955049Z","time":"1:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:29.779944Z","time":"1:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC45NTUwNDkrMDA6MDB8MTAwMzY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.2,"target":"SAN departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10036,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10035,"event_id":4372,"slug":"4372-san-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 35%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 35% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:30.950594Z","time":"1:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:29.779944Z","time":"1:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC45NTA1OTQrMDA6MDB8MTAwMzU","forecast":{"p_pct":"35%","expected_cancellations":6.3,"target":"SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":67,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10035,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9970,"event_id":4381,"slug":"4381-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.791042Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.231271Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC43OTEwNDIrMDA6MDB8OTk3MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":2.9,"target":"SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9970,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9800,"event_id":4023,"slug":"4023-san-restriction","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA no longer lists a ground delay program at San Diego","body":"The ground delay program for flights to San Diego (SAN) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 10:00 PM PST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:52 PM PST.","what_changed":"ground delay program no longer listed","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:04:49.119842Z","time":"10:04 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:04 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:04 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:02.726000Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:04:49.086234Z","time":"10:04 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:04 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:04 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjowNDo0OS4xMTk4NDIrMDA6MDB8OTgwMA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9800,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9640,"event_id":4244,"slug":"4244-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 6:58 PM and 7:58 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:16.740628Z","time":"7:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:00Z","time":"7:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:15.993642Z","time":"7:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNi43NDA2MjgrMDA6MDB8OTY0MA","measurement":{"window":"6:58 PM–7:58 PM PST","n":12,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"38%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":355.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9640,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9603,"event_id":4216,"slug":"4216-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 15 cancellations among San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 35 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.742639Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy43NDI2MzkrMDA6MDB8OTYwMw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":15.1,"target":"SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":35,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9603,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9547,"event_id":4140,"slug":"4140-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 19 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 54 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 19 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.557092Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC41NTcwOTIrMDA6MDB8OTU0Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":19.5,"target":"SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":54,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9547,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9455,"event_id":4149,"slug":"4149-san-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at San Diego","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for San Diego (SAN) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility. The latest, at 3:17 PM PST, reports light rain, ceiling 2800 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 4 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:30:30.186504Z","time":"3:30 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:30 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:30 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:17:00Z","time":"3:17 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:17 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:17 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:30:28.734269Z","time":"3:30 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:30 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:30 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzozMDozMC4xODY1MDQrMDA6MDB8OTQ1NQ","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","3:17 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSAN 132317Z COR VRB04KT 10SM R09/4000VP6000FT -RA SCT023 BKN028 BKN060 19/14 A2982 RMK AO2 P0003 T01890144"],["Station","KSAN at Fri Nov 13, 3:17 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9455,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSAN&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9373,"event_id":4024,"slug":"4024-san-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at San Diego","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at San Diego (SAN) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 2:00 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:52 PM PST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.286809Z","time":"2:03 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:03 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:48.360000Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.187331Z","time":"2:03 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:03 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjowMzo1MS4yODY4MDkrMDA6MDB8OTM3Mw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9373,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9324,"event_id":4103,"slug":"4103-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among San Diego departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 58 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.314774Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4zMTQ3NzQrMDA6MDB8OTMyNA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.6,"target":"SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9324,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9323,"event_id":3990,"slug":"3990-san-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 66%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 66% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.311043Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4zMTEwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTMyMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"66%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":34,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9323,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9322,"event_id":3943,"slug":"3943-san-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 87%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"66% → 87% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.307336Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4zMDczMzYrMDA6MDB8OTMyMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"87%","expected_cancellations":4.5,"target":"SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":55,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9322,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9321,"event_id":3912,"slug":"3912-san-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 85%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"59% → 85% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.303937Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4zMDM5MzcrMDA6MDB8OTMyMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"85%","expected_cancellations":6.6,"target":"SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9321,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9215,"event_id":4000,"slug":"4000-san-aircraft-turns","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Fewer tight aircraft turns at San Diego: 9 of 16 departures in the next 90 min, still high","body":"Of the 31 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 1:25 PM and 2:55 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 16. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 4 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":"tight share 69% → 56%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:25:34.317939Z","time":"1:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:25:00Z","time":"1:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:25:03.789153Z","time":"1:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMToyNTozNC4zMTc5MzkrMDA6MDB8OTIxNQ","measure":{"chips":[["Next","1:25 PM–2:55 PM PST"],["Tight turns","9 of 16"],["Share","56%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","1:25 PM–2:55 PM PST · 31 departures, aircraft known for 16"],["Tight turns","9 (56%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","4 not taken off · 5 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","OO 3154 to MRY at 1:32 PM: aircraft N178SY, inbound OO 3039 from SJC (not departed), -35 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 133 to LAS at 1:41 PM: aircraft N212WN, inbound WN 133 from PIT (airborne), -16 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 284 to PHX at 2:08 PM: aircraft N8996Q, inbound WN 4418 from SMF (not departed), 0 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2704 to SJC at 1:54 PM: aircraft N8977G, inbound WN 1079 from BNA (airborne), 4 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 3667 to BWI at 2:15 PM: aircraft N8897K, inbound WN 3725 from SJC (not departed), 8 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9215,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9116,"event_id":4001,"slug":"4001-san-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego arrival delays worsen: 65% late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 arrivals that landed between 11:25 AM and 12:25 PM PST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 53% → 65%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:25:23.566188Z","time":"12:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:25:00Z","time":"12:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:25:21.609763Z","time":"12:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDoyNToyMy41NjYxODgrMDA6MDB8OTExNg","measurement":{"window":"11:25 AM–12:25 PM PST","n":20,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"65%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":31.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9116,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9084,"event_id":3734,"slug":"3734-san-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 55% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:34.316950Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:33.042090Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODo1NzozNC4zMTY5NTArMDA6MDB8OTA4NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":1.7,"target":"SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":76,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9084,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8764,"event_id":3665,"slug":"3665-san-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego arrival delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:58 PM and 10:58 PM PST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 62% → 56%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:58:07.872051Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:58:00Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:58 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:58:07.376446Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjo1ODowNy44NzIwNTErMDA6MDB8ODc2NA","measurement":{"window":"9:58 PM–10:58 PM PST","n":16,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"56%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":17.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8764,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8744,"event_id":3857,"slug":"3857-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:57:06.580337Z","time":"9:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:57:05.834354Z","time":"9:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTo1NzowNi41ODAzMzcrMDA6MDB8ODc0NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":1.8,"target":"SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":69,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8744,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8722,"event_id":3706,"slug":"3706-san-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego departure delays ease: 63% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 8:16 PM and 9:16 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 79% → 63%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:16:20.934775Z","time":"9:16 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:16 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:16 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:16:00Z","time":"9:16 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:16 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:16 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:16:20.552665Z","time":"9:16 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:16 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:16 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNToxNjoyMC45MzQ3NzUrMDA6MDB8ODcyMg","measurement":{"window":"8:16 PM–9:16 PM PST","n":19,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"63%","baseline_pct":"36%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":18.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8722,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNToxNjoyMC45MzQ3NzUrMDA6MDB8ODcyMg","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMjowNjowNS42NjI3NjQrMDA6MDB8MTAyNzQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 17 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n New\n \n \n Weather\n SAN\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at San Diego

\n \n \n

The 3:58 AM PST official weather observation (METAR) for San Diego (SAN) reports light rain, ceiling 900 ft, visibility 9 mi, wind 3 kt gusting to 14 kt. Coded weather: “-RA”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.

\n \n

Observed 3:58 AM PST

\n \n \n
\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 26 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 67 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among San Diego departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 35%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 35%

\n

What changed: 49% → 35% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 35%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 40%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 40% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 40%Horizon 11.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Traffic restriction\n SAN\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists a ground delay program at San Diego

\n

What changed: ground delay program no longer listed

\n \n

The ground delay program for flights to San Diego (SAN) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 10:00 PM PST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:52 PM PST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

San Diego departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 6:58 PM and 7:58 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:58 PM–7:58 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 100%Typical 38%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 15 cancellations among San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 35 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 19 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 19 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 54 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~20 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n Late report\n
\n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n SAN\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at San Diego

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What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported

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No official weather observation (METAR) for San Diego (SAN) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility. The latest, at 3:17 PM PST, reports light rain, ceiling 2800 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 4 kt.

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Observed 3:17 PM PST

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\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SAN\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at San Diego

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What changed: departure delays no longer listed

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FAA-reported departure delays at San Diego (SAN) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 2:00 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:52 PM PST.

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\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SAN\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 7 cancellations among San Diego departures 3–6 PM Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 58 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SAN\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 66%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 66%

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What changed: 55% → 66% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 66%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 87%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 87%

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What changed: 66% → 87% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 87%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 85%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 85%

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What changed: 59% → 85% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 85%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Inbound aircraft\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
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Fewer tight aircraft turns at San Diego: 9 of 16 departures in the next 90 min, still high

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What changed: tight share 69% → 56%

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Of the 31 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 1:25 PM and 2:55 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 16. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 4 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

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Next 1:25 PM–2:55 PM PSTTight turns 9 of 16Share 56%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SAN\n arrivals\n \n \n
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San Diego arrival delays worsen: 65% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 53% → 65%

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Of 20 arrivals that landed between 11:25 AM and 12:25 PM PST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 11:25 AM–12:25 PM PSTSample 20 flightsLate 65%Typical 26%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SAN\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 17 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 55%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
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Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 55%

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What changed: 45% → 55% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 55%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SAN\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 29 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n SAN\n arrivals\n \n \n
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San Diego arrival delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal

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What changed: late share 62% → 56%

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Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:58 PM and 10:58 PM PST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 9:58 PM–10:58 PM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 56%Typical 26%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 30 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 40%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 40% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 40%Horizon 11.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SAN\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 31 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
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San Diego departure delays ease: 63% late in the last hour, still above normal

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What changed: late share 79% → 63%

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Of 19 departures that took off between 8:16 PM and 9:16 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 8:16 PM–9:16 PM PSTSample 19 flightsLate 63%Typical 36%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"airport=SAN"}