{"items":[{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9183,"event_id":3990,"slug":"3990-san-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 55% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.429026Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy40MjkwMjYrMDA6MDB8OTE4Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":1.0,"target":"SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":34,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9183,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9182,"event_id":3943,"slug":"3943-san-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 66%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 66% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.418917Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy40MTg5MTcrMDA6MDB8OTE4Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"66%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":56,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9182,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9181,"event_id":3912,"slug":"3912-san-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 59%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"51% → 59% since the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.415460Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy40MTU0NjArMDA6MDB8OTE4MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9181,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9148,"event_id":4024,"slug":"4024-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA reports departure delays of 16–30 min at San Diego","body":"The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 16–30 min at San Diego (SAN), citing “VOL:Volume”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:54:12.147182Z","time":"12:54 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:54 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:53.519000Z","time":"12:52 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:52 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:54:12.021717Z","time":"12:54 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:54 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NDoxMi4xNDcxODIrMDA6MDB8OTE0OA","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9148,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9147,"event_id":4023,"slug":"4023-san-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA reports ground delay program for San Diego arrivals, average delay 34 min","body":"The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to San Diego (SAN), citing “airport volume”; it gives an average delay of 34 min and a maximum of 81 min. Departures to SAN are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:54:12.144209Z","time":"12:54 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:54 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:15:00Z","time":"9:15 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:15 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:54:12.021717Z","time":"12:54 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:54 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NDoxMi4xNDQyMDkrMDA6MDB8OTE0Nw","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9147,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9116,"event_id":4001,"slug":"4001-san-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego arrival delays worsen: 65% late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 arrivals that landed between 11:25 AM and 12:25 PM PST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 53% → 65%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:25:23.566188Z","time":"12:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:25:00Z","time":"12:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"57 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:25:21.609763Z","time":"12:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDoyNToyMy41NjYxODgrMDA6MDB8OTExNg","measurement":{"window":"11:25 AM–12:25 PM PST","n":20,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"65%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":31.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9116,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9110,"event_id":4000,"slug":"4000-san-aircraft-turns","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"More tight aircraft turns at San Diego: 20 of 29 departures in the next 90 min","body":"Of the 44 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 12:06 PM and 1:36 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 29. For 20 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":"tight share 38% → 69%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:06:54.965005Z","time":"12:06 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:06:00Z","time":"12:06 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:06:52.946686Z","time":"12:06 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDowNjo1NC45NjUwMDUrMDA6MDB8OTExMA","measure":{"chips":[["Next","12:06 PM–1:36 PM PST"],["Tight turns","20 of 29"],["Share","69%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","12:06 PM–1:36 PM PST · 44 departures, aircraft known for 29"],["Tight turns","20 (69%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","1 not taken off · 16 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 4803 to CMH at 1:07 PM: aircraft N210WN, inbound WN 4804 from SFO (not departed), -48 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 968 to DAL at 12:53 PM: aircraft N8695D, inbound WN 3715 from DAL (airborne), -18 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 330 to MCI at 12:34 PM: aircraft N221WN, inbound WN 330 from SBA (airborne), -7 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 748 to SBA at 12:16 PM: aircraft N939WN, inbound WN 3105 from SJC (airborne), -3 min to turn"],["Tightest","QX 2147 to SFO at 12:12 PM: aircraft N626QX, inbound QX 2433 from OAK (airborne), -2 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9110,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9103,"event_id":4001,"slug":"4001-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego arrivals running late: 53% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 arrivals that landed between 10:44 AM and 11:44 AM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:44:27.576735Z","time":"11:44 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:44 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:44:00Z","time":"11:44 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:44 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:44 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:44:26.922606Z","time":"11:44 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:44 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxOTo0NDoyNy41NzY3MzUrMDA6MDB8OTEwMw","measurement":{"window":"10:44 AM–11:44 AM PST","n":19,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"53%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9116,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9116,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Major","headline":"San Diego arrival delays worsen: 65% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:25:23.566188Z","time":"12:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:25 UTC"}}},{"id":9100,"event_id":4000,"slug":"4000-san-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"San Diego: 10 of 26 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 44 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 11:40 AM and 1:10 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 26. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:40:23.691214Z","time":"11:40 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:40 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:40 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:40:00Z","time":"11:40 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:40 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:40:22.252417Z","time":"11:40 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:40 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:40 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxOTo0MDoyMy42OTEyMTQrMDA6MDB8OTEwMA","measure":{"chips":[["Next","11:40 AM–1:10 PM PST"],["Tight turns","10 of 26"],["Share","38%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","11:40 AM–1:10 PM PST · 44 departures, aircraft known for 26"],["Tight turns","10 (38%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","1 not taken off · 9 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 330 to MCI at 12:34 PM: aircraft N221WN, inbound WN 330 from SBA (not departed), -10 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 748 to SBA at 12:16 PM: aircraft N939WN, inbound WN 3105 from SJC (airborne), -7 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 3693 to MKE at 1:03 PM: aircraft N8665D, inbound WN 421 from AUS (airborne), 3 min to turn"],["Tightest","OO 3163 to SBA at 12:35 PM: aircraft N404SY, inbound OO 3491 from FAT (airborne), 9 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 399 to OMA at 12:08 PM: aircraft N8327A, inbound WN 3257 from COS (airborne), 9 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9110,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9110,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Major","headline":"More tight aircraft turns at San Diego: 20 of 29 departures in the next 90 min","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:06:54.965005Z","time":"12:06 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:06 UTC"}}},{"id":9085,"event_id":3990,"slug":"3990-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:34.321038Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:33.042090Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODo1NzozNC4zMjEwMzgrMDA6MDB8OTA4NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":34,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9183,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9183,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 55%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.429026Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9084,"event_id":3734,"slug":"3734-san-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 55% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:34.316950Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:33.042090Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODo1NzozNC4zMTY5NTArMDA6MDB8OTA4NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":1.7,"target":"SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":76,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9084,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8979,"event_id":3943,"slug":"3943-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 55% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:39.924547Z","time":"7:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:38.542413Z","time":"7:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTo1NzozOS45MjQ1NDcrMDA6MDB8ODk3OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":56,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9182,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9182,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 66%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.418917Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8901,"event_id":3912,"slug":"3912-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 51% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.390599Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:44.385825Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4zOTA1OTkrMDA6MDB8ODkwMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":1.0,"target":"SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9181,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9181,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 59%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.415460Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8764,"event_id":3665,"slug":"3665-san-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego arrival delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:58 PM and 10:58 PM PST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 62% → 56%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:58:07.872051Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:58:00Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:58 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:58:07.376446Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjo1ODowNy44NzIwNTErMDA6MDB8ODc2NA","measurement":{"window":"9:58 PM–10:58 PM PST","n":16,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"56%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":17.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8764,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8749,"event_id":3665,"slug":"3665-san-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego arrival delays worsen: 62% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 arrivals that landed between 9:25 PM and 10:25 PM PST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 44% → 62%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:25:35.945530Z","time":"10:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:25:00Z","time":"10:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:25:35.456369Z","time":"10:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjoyNTozNS45NDU1MzArMDA6MDB8ODc0OQ","measurement":{"window":"9:25 PM–10:25 PM PST","n":24,"late_n":15,"share_pct":"62%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":20.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8764,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8764,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"San Diego arrival delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:58:07.872051Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:58 UTC"}}},{"id":8744,"event_id":3857,"slug":"3857-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:57:06.580337Z","time":"9:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:57:05.834354Z","time":"9:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTo1NzowNi41ODAzMzcrMDA6MDB8ODc0NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":1.8,"target":"SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":69,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8744,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8722,"event_id":3706,"slug":"3706-san-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego departure delays ease: 63% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 8:16 PM and 9:16 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 79% → 63%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:16:20.934775Z","time":"9:16 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:16 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:16 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:16:00Z","time":"9:16 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:16 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:16 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:16:20.552665Z","time":"9:16 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:16 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:16 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNToxNjoyMC45MzQ3NzUrMDA6MDB8ODcyMg","measurement":{"window":"8:16 PM–9:16 PM PST","n":19,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"63%","baseline_pct":"36%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":18.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8722,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8695,"event_id":3706,"slug":"3706-san-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego departure delays worsen: 79% late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 7:33 PM and 8:33 PM PST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 59% → 79%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:30.884119Z","time":"8:33 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:33 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:00Z","time":"8:33 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:33 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:30.356312Z","time":"8:33 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:33 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDozMzozMC44ODQxMTkrMDA6MDB8ODY5NQ","measurement":{"window":"7:33 PM–8:33 PM PST","n":19,"late_n":15,"share_pct":"79%","baseline_pct":"36%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":30.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8722,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8722,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"San Diego departure delays ease: 63% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:16:20.934775Z","time":"9:16 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:16 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:16 UTC"}}},{"id":8586,"event_id":3665,"slug":"3665-san-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego arrival delays ease: 44% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 18 arrivals that landed between 4:58 PM and 5:58 PM PST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 62% → 44%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:58:26.650838Z","time":"5:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:58:00Z","time":"5:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:58 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:58:25.972319Z","time":"5:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMTo1ODoyNi42NTA4MzgrMDA6MDB8ODU4Ng","measurement":{"window":"4:58 PM–5:58 PM PST","n":18,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"44%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":14.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8764,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8764,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"San Diego arrival delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:58:07.872051Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:58 UTC"}}},{"id":8578,"event_id":3665,"slug":"3665-san-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego arrival delays worsen: 62% late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 arrivals that landed between 4:33 PM and 5:33 PM PST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 50% → 62%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:33:49.612427Z","time":"5:33 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:33 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:33:00Z","time":"5:33 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:33 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:33:48.959339Z","time":"5:33 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:33 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMTozMzo0OS42MTI0MjcrMDA6MDB8ODU3OA","measurement":{"window":"4:33 PM–5:33 PM PST","n":21,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"62%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":22.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8764,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8764,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"San Diego arrival delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:58:07.872051Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:58 UTC"}}},{"id":8574,"event_id":3706,"slug":"3706-san-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego departure delays ease: 59% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 17 departures that took off between 4:29 PM and 5:29 PM PST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 77% → 59%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:29:42.306259Z","time":"5:29 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:29 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:29 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:29:00Z","time":"5:29 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:29 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:29 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:29:41.220104Z","time":"5:29 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:29 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:29 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyOTo0Mi4zMDYyNTkrMDA6MDB8ODU3NA","measurement":{"window":"4:29 PM–5:29 PM PST","n":17,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"59%","baseline_pct":"37%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":18.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8722,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8722,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"San Diego departure delays ease: 63% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:16:20.934775Z","time":"9:16 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:16 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:16 UTC"}}},{"id":8511,"event_id":3665,"slug":"3665-san-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego arrival delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 2:46 PM and 3:46 PM PST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 67% → 50%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:46:59.173930Z","time":"3:46 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:46 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:46 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:46:00Z","time":"3:46 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:46 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:46 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:46:58.389304Z","time":"3:46 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:46 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:46 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMzo0Njo1OS4xNzM5MzArMDA6MDB8ODUxMQ","measurement":{"window":"2:46 PM–3:46 PM PST","n":16,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":25.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8764,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8764,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"San Diego arrival delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:58:07.872051Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:58 UTC"}}},{"id":8479,"event_id":3706,"slug":"3706-san-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego departure delays worsen: 77% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 departures that took off between 1:26 PM and 2:26 PM PST, 17 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 56% → 77%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:27:00.325806Z","time":"2:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:26:00Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:26 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:26:59.223765Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:26 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjoyNzowMC4zMjU4MDYrMDA6MDB8ODQ3OQ","measurement":{"window":"1:26 PM–2:26 PM PST","n":22,"late_n":17,"share_pct":"77%","baseline_pct":"34%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":35.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8722,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8722,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"San Diego departure delays ease: 63% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:16:20.934775Z","time":"9:16 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:16 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:16 UTC"}}}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjoyNzowMC4zMjU4MDYrMDA6MDB8ODQ3OQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n \n A+D\n RESTRICT\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n SAN\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 55%

\n ▲ 47% → 55% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n SAN\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 66%

\n ▲ 55% → 66% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n SAN\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 59%

\n ▲ 51% → 59% since the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n SAN\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

FAA reports departure delays of 16–30 min at San Diego

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n SAN\n ARR\n RESTRICT\n NEW\n \n

FAA reports ground delay program for San Diego arrivals, average delay 34 min

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n SAN\n ARR\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

San Diego arrival delays worsen: 65% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 53% → 65%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n SAN\n DEP\n INBOUND\n DEVELOPING\n \n

More tight aircraft turns at San Diego: 20 of 29 departures in the next 90 min

\n ▲ tight share 38% → 69%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n SAN\n ARR\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

San Diego arrivals running late: 53% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 53% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n SAN\n DEP\n INBOUND\n DEVELOPING\n \n

San Diego: 10 of 26 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n Tight turns 10 of 26\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SAN\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n 47% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SAN\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 55%

\n ▲ 45% → 55% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SAN\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model forecasts 55% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n 55% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SAN\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n 51% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n SAN\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

San Diego arrival delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 62% → 56%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n SAN\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

San Diego arrival delays worsen: 62% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 44% → 62%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SAN\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 40% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n 40% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n SAN\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

San Diego departure delays ease: 63% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 79% → 63%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n SAN\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

San Diego departure delays worsen: 79% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 59% → 79%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n SAN\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

San Diego arrival delays ease: 44% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 62% → 44%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n SAN\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

San Diego arrival delays worsen: 62% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 50% → 62%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n SAN\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

San Diego departure delays ease: 59% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 77% → 59%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n SAN\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

San Diego arrival delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 67% → 50%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n SAN\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

San Diego departure delays worsen: 77% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 56% → 77%\n
\n \n
"],"filters":"airport=SAN&mode=all&view=terminal"}