{"items":[{"id":11863,"event_id":4935,"slug":"4935-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 72 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:36.000669Z","time":"11:26 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:26 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:33.606557Z","time":"11:26 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:26 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNi4wMDA2NjkrMDA6MDB8MTE4NjM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.8,"target":"SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":72,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11863,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11653,"event_id":4832,"slug":"4832-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among San Diego departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 75 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 11 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:57:22.333676Z","time":"7:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:57:21.263761Z","time":"7:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMzo1NzoyMi4zMzM2NzYrMDA6MDB8MTE2NTM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.4,"target":"SAN departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":75,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11653,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11474,"event_id":4628,"slug":"4628-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 6 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:25:48.061413Z","time":"5:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:25:46.599458Z","time":"5:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMToyNTo0OC4wNjE0MTMrMDA6MDB8MTE0NzQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.3,"target":"SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":8,"latest_update_id":11474,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":8,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11340,"event_id":4585,"slug":"4585-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among San Diego departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 53 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 12 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:56:11.369026Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:56:10.342678Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMjo1NjoxMS4zNjkwMjYrMDA6MDB8MTEzNDA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.7,"target":"SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":53,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":9,"latest_update_id":11340,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":9,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11036,"event_id":4549,"slug":"4549-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among San Diego departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 58 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 23 → 10 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:52.242806Z","time":"10:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"10:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1Mi4yNDI4MDYrMDA6MDB8MTEwMzY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.8,"target":"SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":11036,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10694,"event_id":4327,"slug":"4327-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 67 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (32%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 21 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:36.432205Z","time":"7:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"7:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNi40MzIyMDUrMDA6MDB8MTA2OTQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":21.1,"target":"SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":67,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":9,"latest_update_id":10694,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":9,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10388,"event_id":4217,"slug":"4217-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among San Diego departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 6 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.143881Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4xNDM4ODErMDA6MDB8MTAzODg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.5,"target":"SAN departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":10388,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9603,"event_id":4216,"slug":"4216-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 15 cancellations among San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 35 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.742639Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy43NDI2MzkrMDA6MDB8OTYwMw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":15.1,"target":"SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":35,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9603,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9547,"event_id":4140,"slug":"4140-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 19 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 54 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 19 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.557092Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC41NTcwOTIrMDA6MDB8OTU0Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":19.5,"target":"SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":54,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9547,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9324,"event_id":4103,"slug":"4103-san-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among San Diego departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 58 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.314774Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4zMTQ3NzQrMDA6MDB8OTMyNA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.6,"target":"SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9324,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNi4wMDA2NjkrMDA6MDB8MTE4NjM","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 10 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 8 cancellations among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 72 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among San Diego departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 11 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 75 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 6 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (8)\n 7 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among San Diego departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 12 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 53 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (9)\n 8 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among San Diego departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 23 → 10 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 58 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 21 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 67 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (32%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~21 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (9)\n 8 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among San Diego departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 6 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 28 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 15 cancellations among San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 35 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 30 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 19 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 19 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 54 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~20 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 33 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n SAN\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 7 cancellations among San Diego departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 58 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SAN\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=SAN"}