{"items":[{"id":8764,"event_id":3665,"slug":"3665-san-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego arrival delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:58 PM and 10:58 PM PST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 62% → 56%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:58:07.872051Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:58:00Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:58 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:58:07.376446Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjo1ODowNy44NzIwNTErMDA6MDB8ODc2NA","measurement":{"window":"9:58 PM–10:58 PM PST","n":16,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"56%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":17.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8764,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8744,"event_id":3857,"slug":"3857-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:57:06.580337Z","time":"9:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:57:05.834354Z","time":"9:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTo1NzowNi41ODAzMzcrMDA6MDB8ODc0NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":1.8,"target":"SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":69,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8744,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8722,"event_id":3706,"slug":"3706-san-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego departure delays ease: 63% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 8:16 PM and 9:16 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 79% → 63%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:16:20.934775Z","time":"9:16 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:16 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:16 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:16:00Z","time":"9:16 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:16 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:16 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:16:20.552665Z","time":"9:16 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:16 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:16 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNToxNjoyMC45MzQ3NzUrMDA6MDB8ODcyMg","measurement":{"window":"8:16 PM–9:16 PM PST","n":19,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"63%","baseline_pct":"36%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":18.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8722,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8470,"event_id":3734,"slug":"3734-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:58:20.440543Z","time":"1:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:58:18.984943Z","time":"1:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1ODoyMC40NDA1NDMrMDA6MDB8ODQ3MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":1.7,"target":"SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":22.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":76,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8470,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8456,"event_id":3722,"slug":"3722-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.744613Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi43NDQ2MTMrMDA6MDB8ODQ1Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8456,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8455,"event_id":3721,"slug":"3721-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 57% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.739889Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi43Mzk4ODkrMDA6MDB8ODQ1NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8455,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8454,"event_id":3720,"slug":"3720-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 52% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.735229Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi43MzUyMjkrMDA6MDB8ODQ1NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"52%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8454,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8435,"event_id":3657,"slug":"3657-san-aircraft-turns","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Fewer tight aircraft turns at San Diego: 10 of 19 departures in the next 90 min, still high","body":"Of the 33 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 1:15 PM and 2:45 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 19. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":"tight share 57% → 53%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:15:16.269025Z","time":"1:15 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:15 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:15 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:15:00Z","time":"1:15 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:15 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:15:14.539940Z","time":"1:15 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:15 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:15 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMToxNToxNi4yNjkwMjUrMDA6MDB8ODQzNQ","measure":{"chips":[["Next","1:15 PM–2:45 PM PST"],["Tight turns","10 of 19"],["Share","53%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","1:15 PM–2:45 PM PST · 33 departures, aircraft known for 19"],["Tight turns","10 (53%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 8 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","OO 3154 to MRY at 1:33 PM: aircraft N410SY, inbound OO 3039 from SJC (airborne), -19 min to turn"],["Tightest","DL 2533 to SEA at 1:36 PM: aircraft N322DU, inbound DL 2533 from SEA (airborne), -4 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2808 to SFO at 1:25 PM: aircraft N8858K, inbound WN 4841 from CMH (airborne), 5 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 133 to LAS at 1:42 PM: aircraft N480WN, inbound WN 133 from PIT (airborne), 11 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 3667 to BWI at 2:16 PM: aircraft N8826Q, inbound WN 3725 from SJC (airborne), 12 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8435,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8136,"event_id":3556,"slug":"3556-san-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego departures back near normal: 25% late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 7:44 PM and 8:44 PM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 74% at worst → 25% now","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T04:44:54.915568Z","time":"8:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 04:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T04:44:00Z","time":"8:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 04:44 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T04:44:54.126990Z","time":"8:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 04:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwNDo0NDo1NC45MTU1NjgrMDA6MDB8ODEzNg","measurement":{"window":"7:44 PM–8:44 PM PST","n":16,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"25%","baseline_pct":"36%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8136,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8054,"event_id":3445,"slug":"3445-san-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego departure delays ease: 44% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 25 departures that took off between 9:58 PM and 10:58 PM PST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 71% → 44%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T06:58:05.062232Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 06:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T06:58:00Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 06:58 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T06:58:01.741825Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 06:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNjo1ODowNS4wNjIyMzIrMDA6MDB8ODA1NA","measurement":{"window":"9:58 PM–10:58 PM PST","n":25,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"44%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":8.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":9,"latest_update_id":8054,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":9,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8050,"event_id":3466,"slug":"3466-san-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego arrival delays ease: 44% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 18 arrivals that landed between 9:25 PM and 10:25 PM PST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 67% → 44%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T06:25:16.822244Z","time":"10:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 06:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T06:25:00Z","time":"10:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 06:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T06:25:16.263405Z","time":"10:25 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:25 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 06:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNjoyNToxNi44MjIyNDQrMDA6MDB8ODA1MA","measurement":{"window":"9:25 PM–10:25 PM PST","n":18,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"44%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":13.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8050,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8023,"event_id":3518,"slug":"3518-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 53% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:56:54.499673Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:56:51.850773Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMzo1Njo1NC40OTk2NzMrMDA6MDB8ODAyMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"53%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8023,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7888,"event_id":3453,"slug":"3453-san-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"San Diego: 8 of 28 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 36 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 10:27 AM and 11:57 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 28. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T18:27:28.549563Z","time":"10:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 18:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T18:27:00Z","time":"10:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 18:27 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T18:27:26.360559Z","time":"10:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 18:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxODoyNzoyOC41NDk1NjMrMDA6MDB8Nzg4OA","measure":{"chips":[["Next","10:27 AM–11:57 AM PST"],["Tight turns","8 of 28"],["Share","29%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","10:27 AM–11:57 AM PST · 36 departures, aircraft known for 28"],["Tight turns","8 (29%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","1 not taken off · 6 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 4669 to BNA at 11:05 AM: aircraft N8651A, inbound WN 107 from PDX (airborne), -6 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 594 to SMF at 11:34 AM: aircraft N940WN, inbound WN 594 from PHX (not departed), -4 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 297 to LAS at 10:50 AM: aircraft N932WN, inbound WN 955 from LAS (airborne), 4 min to turn"],["Tightest","OO 3464 to AUS at 10:39 AM: aircraft N193SY, inbound OO 3053 from BOI (landed), 10 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 143 to EUG at 11:13 AM: aircraft N225WN, inbound WN 3105 from SJC (airborne), 11 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7888,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7885,"event_id":3451,"slug":"3451-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Monday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T17:56:24.597292Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T17:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T17:56:19.369231Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNzo1NjoyNC41OTcyOTIrMDA6MDB8Nzg4NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":1.0,"target":"SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":75,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T17:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7885,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7876,"event_id":3443,"slug":"3443-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T16:57:59.545521Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 16:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T16:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T16:57:49.912809Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 16:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNjo1Nzo1OS41NDU1MjErMDA6MDB8Nzg3Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":55,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T16:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7876,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7875,"event_id":3442,"slug":"3442-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T16:57:59.480440Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 16:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T16:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T16:57:49.912809Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 16:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNjo1Nzo1OS40ODA0NDArMDA6MDB8Nzg3NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T16:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7875,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7837,"event_id":3424,"slug":"3424-san-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego arrivals back near normal: 29% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 10:58 PM and 11:58 PM PST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 50% at worst → 29% now","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T07:58:45.606901Z","time":"11:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 11:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 07:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T07:58:00Z","time":"11:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 11:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 07:58 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T07:58:45.153106Z","time":"11:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 11:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 07:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwNzo1ODo0NS42MDY5MDErMDA6MDB8NzgzNw","measurement":{"window":"10:58 PM–11:58 PM PST","n":17,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"29%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7837,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7815,"event_id":3381,"slug":"3381-san-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego arrivals back near normal: 9% late in the last hour","body":"Of 23 arrivals that landed between 7:33 PM and 8:33 PM PST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 63% at worst → 9% now","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:33:52.770008Z","time":"8:33 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:33 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:33:00Z","time":"8:33 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:33 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:33:52.176022Z","time":"8:33 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:33 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwNDozMzo1Mi43NzAwMDgrMDA6MDB8NzgxNQ","measurement":{"window":"7:33 PM–8:33 PM PST","n":23,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"9%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7815,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7801,"event_id":3400,"slug":"3400-san-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 41%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 41%; calm-weather level 34%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:56:52.906752Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:56:51.714365Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMzo1Njo1Mi45MDY3NTIrMDA6MDB8NzgwMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7801,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7762,"event_id":3389,"slug":"3389-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 58% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:27:56.197298Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:27:53.973199Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMToyNzo1Ni4xOTcyOTgrMDA6MDB8Nzc2Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"58%","expected_cancellations":1.0,"target":"SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7762,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7744,"event_id":3353,"slug":"3353-san-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego arrivals back near normal: 29% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 3:19 PM and 4:19 PM PST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 80% at worst → 29% now","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T00:19:23.911119Z","time":"4:19 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:19 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 00:19 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T00:19:00Z","time":"4:19 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:19 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 00:19 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T00:19:22.923121Z","time":"4:19 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:19 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 00:19 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMDoxOToyMy45MTExMTkrMDA6MDB8Nzc0NA","measurement":{"window":"3:19 PM–4:19 PM PST","n":17,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"29%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7744,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7722,"event_id":3367,"slug":"3367-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 53% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Sunday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:56:11.092300Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 2:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:56:09.289120Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 2:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMjo1NjoxMS4wOTIzMDArMDA6MDB8NzcyMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"53%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7722,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7703,"event_id":3348,"slug":"3348-san-aircraft-turns","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Fewer tight aircraft turns at San Diego: 11 of 27 departures in the next 90 min, still high","body":"Of the 38 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 1:12 PM and 2:42 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 27. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":"tight share 57% → 41%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T21:12:41.721320Z","time":"1:12 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 1:12 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 21:12 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T21:12:00Z","time":"1:12 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 1:12 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 21:12 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T21:12:39.240494Z","time":"1:12 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 1:12 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 21:12 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMToxMjo0MS43MjEzMjArMDA6MDB8NzcwMw","measure":{"chips":[["Next","1:12 PM–2:42 PM PST"],["Tight turns","11 of 27"],["Share","41%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","1:12 PM–2:42 PM PST · 38 departures, aircraft known for 27"],["Tight turns","11 (41%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 8 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 3700 to DEN at 1:23 PM: aircraft N8522P, inbound WN 3111 from MKE (airborne), -45 min to turn"],["Tightest","OO 3154 to MRY at 1:33 PM: aircraft N405SY, inbound OO 3039 from SJC (airborne), -16 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 133 to LAS at 1:42 PM: aircraft N497WN, inbound WN 133 from PIT (airborne), -14 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2808 to SFO at 1:25 PM: aircraft N8671D, inbound WN 4841 from CMH (airborne), 0 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 284 to PHX at 2:10 PM: aircraft N8920Q, inbound WN 4418 from SMF (airborne), 6 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7703,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7682,"event_id":3341,"slug":"3341-san-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Diego departures running late: 47% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 9:59 AM and 10:59 AM PST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T19:00:00.659779Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 11:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 19:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T18:59:00Z","time":"10:59 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:59 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 18:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T18:59:58.749788Z","time":"10:59 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:59 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 18:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQxOTowMDowMC42NTk3NzkrMDA6MDB8NzY4Mg","measurement":{"window":"9:59 AM–10:59 AM PST","n":19,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"47%","baseline_pct":"20%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":13.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7682,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7566,"event_id":3283,"slug":"3283-san-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 34%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Saturday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 34%; calm-weather level 29%","airports":["SAN"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T14:57:05.274157Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 14:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T14:57:03.935260Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 14:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNDo1NzowNS4yNzQxNTcrMDA6MDB8NzU2Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"34%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":90,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7566,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNDo1NzowNS4yNzQxNTcrMDA6MDB8NzU2Ng","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjo1ODowNy44NzIwNTErMDA6MDB8ODc2NA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8764\" data-event=\"3665\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjo1ODowNy44NzIwNTErMDA6MDB8ODc2NA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"developing\" data-n=\"7\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8764\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3665-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8764\" data-expand=\"8764\" title=\"Show all 7 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">7</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 7 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T06:58:07.872051Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM PST · 2026-11-13 06:58 UTC\">01:58</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">DEVELOPING</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8764\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3665-san-delays#u-8764\" title=\"San Diego arrival delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal\">San Diego arrival delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 62% → 56%\">▼ late share 62% → 56%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8764\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8764\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:58 PM and 10:58 PM PST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">7 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3665-san-delays#u-8764\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3665\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3665-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8744\" data-event=\"3857\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTo1NzowNi41ODAzMzcrMDA6MDB8ODc0NA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"new\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8744\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3857-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8744\" data-expand=\"8744\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T05:57:06.580337Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 9:57 PM PST · 2026-11-13 05:57 UTC\">00:57</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">NEW</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8744\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3857-san-delays#u-8744\" title=\"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Friday\">Model forecasts 40% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Friday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">40% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8744\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8744\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3857-san-delays#u-8744\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3857\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3857-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8722\" data-event=\"3706\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNToxNjoyMC45MzQ3NzUrMDA6MDB8ODcyMg\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"developing\" data-n=\"5\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8722\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3706-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8722\" data-expand=\"8722\" title=\"Show all 5 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">5</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 5 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T05:16:20.934775Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 9:16 PM PST · 2026-11-13 05:16 UTC\">00:16</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">DEVELOPING</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8722\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3706-san-delays#u-8722\" title=\"San Diego departure delays ease: 63% late in the last hour, still above normal\">San Diego departure delays ease: 63% late in the last hour, still above normal</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 79% → 63%\">▼ late share 79% → 63%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8722\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8722\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 19 departures that took off between 8:16 PM and 9:16 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">5 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3706-san-delays#u-8722\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3706\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3706-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8470\" data-event=\"3734\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1ODoyMC40NDA1NDMrMDA6MDB8ODQ3MA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"new\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8470\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3734-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8470\" data-expand=\"8470\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-12T21:58:20.440543Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 1:58 PM PST · 2026-11-12 21:58 UTC\">16:58<small>Nov 12</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">NEW</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8470\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3734-san-delays#u-8470\" title=\"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Friday\">Model forecasts 45% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">45% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8470\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8470\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3734-san-delays#u-8470\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3734\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3734-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8456\" data-event=\"3722\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi43NDQ2MTMrMDA6MDB8ODQ1Ng\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8456\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3722-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8456\" data-expand=\"8456\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-12T21:56:16.744613Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST · 2026-11-12 21:56 UTC\">16:56<small>Nov 12</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8456\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3722-san-delays#u-8456\" title=\"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday\">Model forecasts 44% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">44% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8456\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8456\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3722-san-delays#u-8456\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3722\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3722-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8455\" data-event=\"3721\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi43Mzk4ODkrMDA6MDB8ODQ1NQ\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8455\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3721-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8455\" data-expand=\"8455\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-12T21:56:16.739889Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST · 2026-11-12 21:56 UTC\">16:56<small>Nov 12</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8455\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3721-san-delays#u-8455\" title=\"Model forecasts 57% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Thursday\">Model forecasts 57% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Thursday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">57% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8455\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8455\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3721-san-delays#u-8455\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3721\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3721-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8454\" data-event=\"3720\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi43MzUyMjkrMDA6MDB8ODQ1NA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8454\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3720-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8454\" data-expand=\"8454\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-12T21:56:16.735229Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST · 2026-11-12 21:56 UTC\">16:56<small>Nov 12</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8454\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3720-san-delays#u-8454\" title=\"Model forecasts 52% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Thursday\">Model forecasts 52% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Thursday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">52% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8454\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8454\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3720-san-delays#u-8454\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3720\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3720-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8435\" data-event=\"3657\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMToxNToxNi4yNjkwMjUrMDA6MDB8ODQzNQ\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"developing\" data-n=\"3\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8435\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3657-san-aircraft-turns\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8435\" data-expand=\"8435\" title=\"Show all 3 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">3</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 3 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-12T21:15:16.269025Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 1:15 PM PST · 2026-11-12 21:15 UTC\">16:15<small>Nov 12</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Inbound aircraft\">INBOUND</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">DEVELOPING</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8435\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3657-san-aircraft-turns#u-8435\" title=\"Fewer tight aircraft turns at San Diego: 10 of 19 departures in the next 90 min, still high\">Fewer tight aircraft turns at San Diego: 10 of 19 departures in the next 90 min, still high</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"tight share 57% → 53%\">▼ tight share 57% → 53%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8435\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8435\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of the 33 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 1:15 PM and 2:45 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 19. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3657-san-aircraft-turns#u-8435\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3657\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3657-san-aircraft-turns\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"8136\" data-event=\"3556\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwNDo0NDo1NC45MTU1NjgrMDA6MDB8ODEzNg\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"3\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8136\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3556-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8136\" data-expand=\"8136\" title=\"Show all 3 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">3</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 3 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-11T04:44:54.915568Z\" title=\"Tue Nov 10, 8:44 PM PST · 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC\">23:44<small>Nov 10</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8136\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3556-san-delays#u-8136\" title=\"San Diego departures back near normal: 25% late in the last hour\">San Diego departures back near normal: 25% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 74% at worst → 25% now\">late share 74% at worst → 25% now</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8136\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8136\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 16 departures that took off between 7:44 PM and 8:44 PM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3556-san-delays#u-8136\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3556\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3556-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8054\" data-event=\"3445\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNjo1ODowNS4wNjIyMzIrMDA6MDB8ODA1NA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"9\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8054\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3445-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8054\" data-expand=\"8054\" title=\"Show all 9 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">9</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 9 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-10T06:58:05.062232Z\" title=\"Mon Nov 9, 10:58 PM PST · 2026-11-10 06:58 UTC\">01:58<small>Nov 10</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8054\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3445-san-delays#u-8054\" title=\"San Diego departure delays ease: 44% late in the last hour, still above normal\">San Diego departure delays ease: 44% late in the last hour, still above normal</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 71% → 44%\">▼ late share 71% → 44%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8054\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8054\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 25 departures that took off between 9:58 PM and 10:58 PM PST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">9 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3445-san-delays#u-8054\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3445\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3445-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8050\" data-event=\"3466\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNjoyNToxNi44MjIyNDQrMDA6MDB8ODA1MA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"5\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8050\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3466-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8050\" data-expand=\"8050\" title=\"Show all 5 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">5</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 5 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-10T06:25:16.822244Z\" title=\"Mon Nov 9, 10:25 PM PST · 2026-11-10 06:25 UTC\">01:25<small>Nov 10</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8050\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3466-san-delays#u-8050\" title=\"San Diego arrival delays ease: 44% late in the last hour, still above normal\">San Diego arrival delays ease: 44% late in the last hour, still above normal</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 67% → 44%\">▼ late share 67% → 44%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8050\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8050\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 18 arrivals that landed between 9:25 PM and 10:25 PM PST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">5 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3466-san-delays#u-8050\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3466\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3466-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8023\" data-event=\"3518\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMzo1Njo1NC40OTk2NzMrMDA6MDB8ODAyMw\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8023\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3518-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8023\" data-expand=\"8023\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-10T03:56:54.499673Z\" title=\"Mon Nov 9, 7:56 PM PST · 2026-11-10 03:56 UTC\">22:56<small>Nov 9</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8023\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3518-san-delays#u-8023\" title=\"Model forecasts 53% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Monday\">Model forecasts 53% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Monday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">53% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8023\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8023\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3518-san-delays#u-8023\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3518\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3518-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7888\" data-event=\"3453\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxODoyNzoyOC41NDk1NjMrMDA6MDB8Nzg4OA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7888\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3453-san-aircraft-turns\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7888\" data-expand=\"7888\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-09T18:27:28.549563Z\" title=\"Mon Nov 9, 10:27 AM PST · 2026-11-09 18:27 UTC\">13:27<small>Nov 9</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Inbound aircraft\">INBOUND</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7888\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3453-san-aircraft-turns#u-7888\" title=\"San Diego: 8 of 28 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn\">San Diego: 8 of 28 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">Tight turns 8 of 28</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7888\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7888\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of the 36 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 10:27 AM and 11:57 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 28. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3453-san-aircraft-turns#u-7888\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3453\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3453-san-aircraft-turns\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7885\" data-event=\"3451\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNzo1NjoyNC41OTcyOTIrMDA6MDB8Nzg4NQ\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7885\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3451-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7885\" data-expand=\"7885\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-09T17:56:24.597292Z\" title=\"Mon Nov 9, 9:56 AM PST · 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC\">12:56<small>Nov 9</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7885\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3451-san-delays#u-7885\" title=\"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Monday\">Model forecasts 49% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Monday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">49% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7885\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7885\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Monday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3451-san-delays#u-7885\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3451\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3451-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7876\" data-event=\"3443\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNjo1Nzo1OS41NDU1MjErMDA6MDB8Nzg3Ng\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7876\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3443-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7876\" data-expand=\"7876\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-09T16:57:59.545521Z\" title=\"Mon Nov 9, 8:57 AM PST · 2026-11-09 16:57 UTC\">11:57<small>Nov 9</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7876\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3443-san-delays#u-7876\" title=\"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Monday\">Model forecasts 48% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Monday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">48% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7876\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7876\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3443-san-delays#u-7876\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3443\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3443-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7875\" data-event=\"3442\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNjo1Nzo1OS40ODA0NDArMDA6MDB8Nzg3NQ\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7875\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3442-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7875\" data-expand=\"7875\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-09T16:57:59.480440Z\" title=\"Mon Nov 9, 8:57 AM PST · 2026-11-09 16:57 UTC\">11:57<small>Nov 9</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7875\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3442-san-delays#u-7875\" title=\"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Monday\">Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Monday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">43% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7875\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7875\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3442-san-delays#u-7875\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3442\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3442-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"7837\" data-event=\"3424\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwNzo1ODo0NS42MDY5MDErMDA6MDB8NzgzNw\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7837\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3424-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7837\" data-expand=\"7837\" title=\"Show all 2 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">2</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 2 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-09T07:58:45.606901Z\" title=\"Sun Nov 8, 11:58 PM PST · 2026-11-09 07:58 UTC\">02:58<small>Nov 9</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7837\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3424-san-delays#u-7837\" title=\"San Diego arrivals back near normal: 29% late in the last hour\">San Diego arrivals back near normal: 29% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 50% at worst → 29% now\">late share 50% at worst → 29% now</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7837\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7837\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 17 arrivals that landed between 10:58 PM and 11:58 PM PST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3424-san-delays#u-7837\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3424\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3424-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"7815\" data-event=\"3381\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwNDozMzo1Mi43NzAwMDgrMDA6MDB8NzgxNQ\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"3\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7815\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3381-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7815\" data-expand=\"7815\" title=\"Show all 3 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">3</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 3 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-09T04:33:52.770008Z\" title=\"Sun Nov 8, 8:33 PM PST · 2026-11-09 04:33 UTC\">23:33<small>Nov 8</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7815\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3381-san-delays#u-7815\" title=\"San Diego arrivals back near normal: 9% late in the last hour\">San Diego arrivals back near normal: 9% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 63% at worst → 9% now\">late share 63% at worst → 9% now</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7815\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7815\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 23 arrivals that landed between 7:33 PM and 8:33 PM PST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3381-san-delays#u-7815\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3381\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3381-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"7801\" data-event=\"3400\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMzo1Njo1Mi45MDY3NTIrMDA6MDB8NzgwMQ\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7801\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3400-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7801\" data-expand=\"7801\" title=\"Show all 2 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">2</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 2 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-09T03:56:52.906752Z\" title=\"Sun Nov 8, 7:56 PM PST · 2026-11-09 03:56 UTC\">22:56<small>Nov 8</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7801\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3400-san-delays#u-7801\" title=\"Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 41%, near normal\">Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 41%, near normal</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"47% → 41%; calm-weather level 34%\">47% → 41%; calm-weather level 34%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7801\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7801\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3400-san-delays#u-7801\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3400\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3400-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7762\" data-event=\"3389\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMToyNzo1Ni4xOTcyOTgrMDA6MDB8Nzc2Mg\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7762\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3389-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7762\" data-expand=\"7762\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-09T01:27:56.197298Z\" title=\"Sun Nov 8, 5:27 PM PST · 2026-11-09 01:27 UTC\">20:27<small>Nov 8</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7762\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3389-san-delays#u-7762\" title=\"Model forecasts 58% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Sunday\">Model forecasts 58% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Sunday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">58% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7762\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7762\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3389-san-delays#u-7762\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3389\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3389-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"7744\" data-event=\"3353\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMDoxOToyMy45MTExMTkrMDA6MDB8Nzc0NA\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"4\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7744\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3353-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7744\" data-expand=\"7744\" title=\"Show all 4 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">4</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 4 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-09T00:19:23.911119Z\" title=\"Sun Nov 8, 4:19 PM PST · 2026-11-09 00:19 UTC\">19:19<small>Nov 8</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7744\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3353-san-delays#u-7744\" title=\"San Diego arrivals back near normal: 29% late in the last hour\">San Diego arrivals back near normal: 29% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 80% at worst → 29% now\">late share 80% at worst → 29% now</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7744\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7744\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 17 arrivals that landed between 3:19 PM and 4:19 PM PST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3353-san-delays#u-7744\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3353\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3353-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7722\" data-event=\"3367\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMjo1NjoxMS4wOTIzMDArMDA6MDB8NzcyMg\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7722\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3367-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7722\" data-expand=\"7722\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-08T22:56:11.092300Z\" title=\"Sun Nov 8, 2:56 PM PST · 2026-11-08 22:56 UTC\">17:56<small>Nov 8</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7722\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3367-san-delays#u-7722\" title=\"Model forecasts 53% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Sunday\">Model forecasts 53% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Sunday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">53% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7722\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7722\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Sunday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3367-san-delays#u-7722\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3367\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3367-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7703\" data-event=\"3348\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMToxMjo0MS43MjEzMjArMDA6MDB8NzcwMw\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"3\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7703\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3348-san-aircraft-turns\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7703\" data-expand=\"7703\" title=\"Show all 3 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">3</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 3 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-08T21:12:41.721320Z\" title=\"Sun Nov 8, 1:12 PM PST · 2026-11-08 21:12 UTC\">16:12<small>Nov 8</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Inbound aircraft\">INBOUND</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7703\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3348-san-aircraft-turns#u-7703\" title=\"Fewer tight aircraft turns at San Diego: 11 of 27 departures in the next 90 min, still high\">Fewer tight aircraft turns at San Diego: 11 of 27 departures in the next 90 min, still high</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"tight share 57% → 41%\">▼ tight share 57% → 41%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7703\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7703\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of the 38 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 1:12 PM and 2:42 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 27. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3348-san-aircraft-turns#u-7703\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3348\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3348-san-aircraft-turns\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7682\" data-event=\"3341\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQxOTowMDowMC42NTk3NzkrMDA6MDB8NzY4Mg\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7682\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3341-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7682\" data-expand=\"7682\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-08T19:00:00.659779Z\" title=\"Sun Nov 8, 11:00 AM PST · 2026-11-08 19:00 UTC\">14:00<small>Nov 8</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7682\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3341-san-delays#u-7682\" title=\"San Diego departures running late: 47% left 15+ min late in the last hour\">San Diego departures running late: 47% left 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">47% late</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7682\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7682\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 19 departures that took off between 9:59 AM and 10:59 AM PST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3341-san-delays#u-7682\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3341\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3341-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"7566\" data-event=\"3283\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNDo1NzowNS4yNzQxNTcrMDA6MDB8NzU2Ng\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7566\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3283-san-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7566\" data-expand=\"7566\" title=\"Show all 2 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">2</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 2 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-07T14:57:05.274157Z\" title=\"Sat Nov 7, 6:57 AM PST · 2026-11-07 14:57 UTC\">09:57<small>Nov 7</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SAN\">SAN</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7566\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3283-san-delays#u-7566\" title=\"Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 34%, near normal\">Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 34%, near normal</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"44% → 34%; calm-weather level 29%\">44% → 34%; calm-weather level 29%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7566\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7566\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Saturday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3283-san-delays#u-7566\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3283\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3283-san-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SAN\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SAN</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>"],"filters":"airport=SAN&view=terminal"}