{"items":[{"id":8951,"event_id":3870,"slug":"3870-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 6:00 AM and 7:00 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 7% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 17% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 52% at worst → 0% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:33.510370Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:33.129378Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTowMDozMy41MTAzNzArMDA6MDB8ODk1MQ","measurement":{"window":"6:00 AM–7:00 AM PST","n":13,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"7%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8951,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8933,"event_id":3750,"slug":"3750-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle arrivals back near normal: 20% late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 arrivals that landed between 5:44 AM and 6:44 AM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 76% at worst → 20% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:44:14.730395Z","time":"6:44 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:44 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:44:00Z","time":"6:44 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:44 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:44 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:44:14.329623Z","time":"6:44 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:44 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNDo0NDoxNC43MzAzOTUrMDA6MDB8ODkzMw","measurement":{"window":"5:44 AM–6:44 AM PST","n":20,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"20%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-9.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":8,"latest_update_id":8933,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":8,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8878,"event_id":3894,"slug":"3894-sea-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Seattle departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"34% → 31%; calm-weather level 21%","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.232248Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:44.385825Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4yMzIyNDgrMDA6MDB8ODg3OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"SEA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":93,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8878,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8766,"event_id":3826,"slug":"3826-sea-aircraft-turns","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Seattle aircraft turns back near normal: 1 of 14 departures in the next 90 min are tight","body":"Of the 17 departures scheduled from Seattle (SEA) between 11:08 PM and 12:38 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 14. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SEA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.","what_changed":"tight share 43% at worst → 7% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:08:16.769025Z","time":"11:08 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:08 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:08 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:08:00Z","time":"11:08 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:08 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:08 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:08:16.087094Z","time":"11:08 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:08 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:08 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNzowODoxNi43NjkwMjUrMDA6MDB8ODc2Ng","measure":{"chips":[["Next","11:08 PM–12:38 AM PST"],["Tight turns","1 of 14"],["Share","7%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","11:08 PM–12:38 AM PST · 17 departures, aircraft known for 14"],["Tight turns","1 (7%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 0 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","UA 1538 to EWR at 11:14 PM: aircraft N17475, inbound UA 2263 from ORD (landed), 16 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8766,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8617,"event_id":3795,"slug":"3795-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour","body":"Of 33 departures that took off between 5:41 PM and 6:41 PM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 46% at worst → 12% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:41:20.220581Z","time":"6:41 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:41 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:41:00Z","time":"6:41 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:41 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:41:19.832978Z","time":"6:41 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:41 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjo0MToyMC4yMjA1ODErMDA6MDB8ODYxNw","measurement":{"window":"5:41 PM–6:41 PM PST","n":33,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"12%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8617,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8476,"event_id":3712,"slug":"3712-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle departures back near normal: 15% late in the last hour","body":"Of 34 departures that took off between 1:22 PM and 2:22 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 43% at worst → 15% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:22:48.595930Z","time":"2:22 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:22 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:22 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:22:00Z","time":"2:22 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:22 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:22 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:22:48.130631Z","time":"2:22 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:22 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:22 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjoyMjo0OC41OTU5MzArMDA6MDB8ODQ3Ng","measurement":{"window":"1:22 PM–2:22 PM PST","n":34,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"15%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8476,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8418,"event_id":3680,"slug":"3680-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle arrivals back near normal: 19% late in the last hour","body":"Of 31 arrivals that landed between 11:44 AM and 12:44 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 44% at worst → 19% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:44:30.066787Z","time":"12:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:44:00Z","time":"12:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:44 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:44:29.604590Z","time":"12:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDo0NDozMC4wNjY3ODcrMDA6MDB8ODQxOA","measurement":{"window":"11:44 AM–12:44 PM PST","n":31,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"19%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":3.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8418,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8246,"event_id":3607,"slug":"3607-sea-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle arrival delays ease: 53% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 36 arrivals that landed between 9:24 PM and 10:24 PM PST, 19 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 68% → 53%","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T06:24:50.439962Z","time":"10:24 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 10:24 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 06:24 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T06:24:00Z","time":"10:24 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 10:24 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 06:24 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T06:24:50.223810Z","time":"10:24 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 10:24 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 06:24 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwNjoyNDo1MC40Mzk5NjIrMDA6MDB8ODI0Ng","measurement":{"window":"9:24 PM–10:24 PM PST","n":36,"late_n":19,"share_pct":"53%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":16.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8246,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8200,"event_id":3586,"slug":"3586-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle arrivals back near normal: 25% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 arrivals that landed between 4:04 PM and 5:04 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 59% at worst → 25% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T01:04:22.849161Z","time":"5:04 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 5:04 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 01:04 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T01:04:00Z","time":"5:04 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 5:04 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 01:04 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T01:04:22.071679Z","time":"5:04 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 5:04 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 01:04 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMTowNDoyMi44NDkxNjErMDA6MDB8ODIwMA","measurement":{"window":"4:04 PM–5:04 PM PST","n":24,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"25%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":7.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8200,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8164,"event_id":3569,"slug":"3569-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour","body":"Of 29 arrivals that landed between 11:46 AM and 12:46 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 58% at worst → 24% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T20:46:26.613964Z","time":"12:46 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 12:46 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 20:46 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T20:46:00Z","time":"12:46 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 12:46 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 20:46 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T20:46:25.987623Z","time":"12:46 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 12:46 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 20:46 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQyMDo0NjoyNi42MTM5NjQrMDA6MDB8ODE2NA","measurement":{"window":"11:46 AM–12:46 PM PST","n":29,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"24%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8164,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8139,"event_id":3558,"slug":"3558-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle departures back near normal: 8% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 departures that took off between 10:31 PM and 11:31 PM PST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 53% at worst → 8% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T07:31:23.789752Z","time":"11:31 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 11:31 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 07:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T07:31:00Z","time":"11:31 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 11:31 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 07:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T07:31:23.680936Z","time":"11:31 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 11:31 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 07:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwNzozMToyMy43ODk3NTIrMDA6MDB8ODEzOQ","measurement":{"window":"10:31 PM–11:31 PM PST","n":24,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"8%","baseline_pct":"20%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-3.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8139,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8137,"event_id":3557,"slug":"3557-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle departures back near normal: 21% late in the last hour","body":"Of 29 departures that took off between 8:03 PM and 9:03 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 63% at worst → 21% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T05:03:10.778171Z","time":"9:03 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:03 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 05:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T05:03:00Z","time":"9:03 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:03 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 05:03 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T05:03:10.553574Z","time":"9:03 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:03 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 05:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwNTowMzoxMC43NzgxNzErMDA6MDB8ODEzNw","measurement":{"window":"8:03 PM–9:03 PM PST","n":29,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"21%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":0.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8137,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8135,"event_id":3543,"slug":"3543-sea-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle arrival delays ease: 55% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 31 arrivals that landed between 7:40 PM and 8:40 PM PST, 17 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 62% → 55%","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T04:40:50.388383Z","time":"8:40 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:40 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 04:40 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T04:40:00Z","time":"8:40 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:40 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 04:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T04:40:50.218011Z","time":"8:40 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:40 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 04:40 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwNDo0MDo1MC4zODgzODMrMDA6MDB8ODEzNQ","measurement":{"window":"7:40 PM–8:40 PM PST","n":31,"late_n":17,"share_pct":"55%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":9,"latest_update_id":8135,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":9,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8125,"event_id":3551,"slug":"3551-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle departures back near normal: 13% late in the last hour","body":"Of 23 departures that took off between 5:34 PM and 6:34 PM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 52% at worst → 13% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:34:21.059854Z","time":"6:34 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 6:34 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:34 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:34:00Z","time":"6:34 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 6:34 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:34 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:34:20.589997Z","time":"6:34 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 6:34 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:34 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwMjozNDoyMS4wNTk4NTQrMDA6MDB8ODEyNQ","measurement":{"window":"5:34 PM–6:34 PM PST","n":23,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"13%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":0.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8125,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8111,"event_id":3546,"slug":"3546-sea-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Seattle departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Seattle 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 31%; calm-weather level 18%","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T22:57:28.431941Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 2:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T22:57:26.941967Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 2:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQyMjo1NzoyOC40MzE5NDErMDA6MDB8ODExMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"SEA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-10 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":69,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8111,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8109,"event_id":3544,"slug":"3544-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle departures back near normal: 16% late in the last hour","body":"Of 31 departures that took off between 1:14 PM and 2:14 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 89% at worst → 16% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T22:14:21.959372Z","time":"2:14 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 2:14 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 22:14 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T22:14:00Z","time":"2:14 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 2:14 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 22:14 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T22:14:21.649684Z","time":"2:14 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 2:14 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 22:14 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQyMjoxNDoyMS45NTkzNzIrMDA6MDB8ODEwOQ","measurement":{"window":"1:14 PM–2:14 PM PST","n":31,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"16%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":0.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8109,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8091,"event_id":3514,"slug":"3514-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 6:10 AM and 7:10 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 7% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 17% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 83% at worst → 7% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:10:34.775677Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:10 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:10 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:10:00Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:10 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:10 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:10:33.950990Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:10 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:10 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxNToxMDozNC43NzU2NzcrMDA6MDB8ODA5MQ","measurement":{"window":"6:10 AM–7:10 AM PST","n":14,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"7%","baseline_pct":"7%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8091,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8088,"event_id":3506,"slug":"3506-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle arrivals back near normal: 7% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:31 AM and 6:31 AM PST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 88% at worst → 7% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T14:31:02.523916Z","time":"6:31 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 6:31 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 14:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T14:31:00Z","time":"6:31 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 6:31 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 14:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T14:31:02.004918Z","time":"6:31 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 6:31 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 14:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxNDozMTowMi41MjM5MTYrMDA6MDB8ODA4OA","measurement":{"window":"5:31 AM–6:31 AM PST","n":15,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"7%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-7.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":8,"latest_update_id":8088,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":8,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8086,"event_id":3539,"slug":"3539-sea-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Seattle departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 26%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 26% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 26%; calm-weather level 16%","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T13:26:04.720145Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T13:26:03.379320Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxMzoyNjowNC43MjAxNDUrMDA6MDB8ODA4Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"26%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"SEA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-10 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":93,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8086,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8085,"event_id":3538,"slug":"3538-sea-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Seattle departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday to 22%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 119 departures scheduled from Seattle 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"43% → 22%; calm-weather level 15%","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T13:26:04.678442Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T13:26:03.379320Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxMzoyNjowNC42Nzg0NDIrMDA6MDB8ODA4NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"22%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"SEA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-10 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":119,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8085,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8005,"event_id":3503,"slug":"3503-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour","body":"Of 26 departures that took off between 5:36 PM and 6:36 PM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 50% at worst → 12% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:36:24.379353Z","time":"6:36 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:36 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:36 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:36:00Z","time":"6:36 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:36 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:36 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:36:23.887209Z","time":"6:36 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:36 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:36 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMjozNjoyNC4zNzkzNTMrMDA6MDB8ODAwNQ","measurement":{"window":"5:36 PM–6:36 PM PST","n":26,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"12%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":0.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8005,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7984,"event_id":3499,"slug":"3499-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle arrivals back near normal: 29% late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 arrivals that landed between 3:50 PM and 4:50 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 48% at worst → 29% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T00:50:02.133838Z","time":"4:50 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:50 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 00:50 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T00:50:00Z","time":"4:50 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:50 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 00:50 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T00:50:01.633136Z","time":"4:50 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:50 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 00:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMDo1MDowMi4xMzM4MzgrMDA6MDB8Nzk4NA","measurement":{"window":"3:50 PM–4:50 PM PST","n":21,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"29%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7984,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7920,"event_id":3463,"slug":"3463-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle arrivals back near normal: 15% late in the last hour","body":"Of 26 arrivals that landed between 11:23 AM and 12:23 PM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 42% at worst → 15% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:23:48.696352Z","time":"12:23 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:23 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:23 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:23:00Z","time":"12:23 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:23 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:23 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:23:47.806478Z","time":"12:23 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:23 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:23 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMDoyMzo0OC42OTYzNTIrMDA6MDB8NzkyMA","measurement":{"window":"11:23 AM–12:23 PM PST","n":26,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"15%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7920,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7865,"event_id":3402,"slug":"3402-sea-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Seattle arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 5:32 AM and 6:32 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 82% at worst → 0% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T14:32:21.166645Z","time":"6:32 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:32 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 14:32 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T14:32:00Z","time":"6:32 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:32 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 14:32 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T14:32:20.474273Z","time":"6:32 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:32 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 14:32 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNDozMjoyMS4xNjY2NDUrMDA6MDB8Nzg2NQ","measurement":{"window":"5:32 AM–6:32 AM PST","n":16,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7865,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7864,"event_id":3414,"slug":"3414-sea-aircraft-turns","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Seattle aircraft turns back near normal: 0 of 14 departures in the next 90 min are tight","body":"Of the 42 departures scheduled from Seattle (SEA) between 6:07 AM and 7:37 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 14. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SEA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.","what_changed":"tight share 32% at worst → 0% now","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T14:07:29.217518Z","time":"6:07 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:07 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 14:07 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T14:07:00Z","time":"6:07 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:07 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 14:07 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T14:07:26.829300Z","time":"6:07 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:07 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 14:07 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNDowNzoyOS4yMTc1MTgrMDA6MDB8Nzg2NA","measure":{"chips":[["Next","6:07 AM–7:37 AM PST"],["Tight turns","0 of 14"],["Share","0%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","6:07 AM–7:37 AM PST · 42 departures, aircraft known for 14"],["Tight turns","0 (0%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 0 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7864,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNDowNzoyOS4yMTc1MTgrMDA6MDB8Nzg2NA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTowMDozMy41MTAzNzArMDA6MDB8ODk1MQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8951\" data-event=\"3870\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTowMDozMy41MTAzNzArMDA6MDB8ODk1MQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8951\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-13T15:00:33.510370Z\" title=\"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM PST\">7:00 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-13T15:00:33.510370Z\">2 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8951\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3870-sea-delays#u-8951\">Seattle departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 52% at worst → 0% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 13 departures that took off between 6:00 AM and 7:00 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 7% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 17% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>6:00 AM–7:00 AM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>13 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>0%</b></span><span>Typical <b>7%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3870-sea-delays#u-8951\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3870-sea-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3870\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3870-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8933\" data-event=\"3750\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNDo0NDoxNC43MzAzOTUrMDA6MDB8ODkzMw\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8933\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-13T14:44:14.730395Z\" title=\"2026-11-13 14:44 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 6:44 AM PST\">6:44 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-13T14:44:14.730395Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8933\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3750-sea-delays#u-8933\">Seattle arrivals back near normal: 20% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 76% at worst → 20% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 20 arrivals that landed between 5:44 AM and 6:44 AM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>5:44 AM–6:44 AM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>20 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>20%</b></span><span>Typical <b>19%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3750-sea-delays#u-8933\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (8)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3750-sea-delays\">7 earlier matching updates</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3750\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3750-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8878\" data-event=\"3894\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4yMzIyNDgrMDA6MDB8ODg3OA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8878\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-13T13:26:45.232248Z\" title=\"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 5:26 AM PST\">5:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-13T13:26:45.232248Z\">4 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 31%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Resolution</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8878\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3894-sea-delays#u-8878\">Model lowers Seattle departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 31%, near normal</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 34% → 31%; calm-weather level 21%</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>31%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>6.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3894-sea-delays#u-8878\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (3)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3894-sea-delays\">2 earlier matching updates</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3894\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3894-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8766\" data-event=\"3826\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNzowODoxNi43NjkwMjUrMDA6MDB8ODc2Ng\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8766\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-13T07:08:16.769025Z\" title=\"2026-11-13 07:08 UTC · Thu Nov 12, 11:08 PM PST\">11:08 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 12</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-13T07:08:16.769025Z\">10 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Inbound aircraft</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8766\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3826-sea-aircraft-turns#u-8766\">Seattle aircraft turns back near normal: 1 of 14 departures in the next 90 min are tight</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> tight share 43% at worst → 7% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of the 17 departures scheduled from Seattle (SEA) between 11:08 PM and 12:38 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 14. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SEA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Next <b>11:08 PM–12:38 AM PST</b></span><span>Tight turns <b>1 of 14</b></span><span>Share <b>7%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3826-sea-aircraft-turns#u-8766\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3826-sea-aircraft-turns\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3826\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3826-sea-aircraft-turns\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8617\" data-event=\"3795\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjo0MToyMC4yMjA1ODErMDA6MDB8ODYxNw\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8617\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-13T02:41:20.220581Z\" title=\"2026-11-13 02:41 UTC · Thu Nov 12, 6:41 PM PST\">6:41 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 12</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-13T02:41:20.220581Z\">15 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8617\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3795-sea-delays#u-8617\">Seattle departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 46% at worst → 12% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 33 departures that took off between 5:41 PM and 6:41 PM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>5:41 PM–6:41 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>33 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>12%</b></span><span>Typical <b>24%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3795-sea-delays#u-8617\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3795-sea-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3795\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3795-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8476\" data-event=\"3712\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjoyMjo0OC41OTU5MzArMDA6MDB8ODQ3Ng\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8476\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-12T22:22:48.595930Z\" title=\"2026-11-12 22:22 UTC · Thu Nov 12, 2:22 PM PST\">2:22 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 12</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-12T22:22:48.595930Z\">19 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8476\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3712-sea-delays#u-8476\">Seattle departures back near normal: 15% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 43% at worst → 15% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 34 departures that took off between 1:22 PM and 2:22 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>1:22 PM–2:22 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>34 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>15%</b></span><span>Typical <b>22%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3712-sea-delays#u-8476\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3712-sea-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3712\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3712-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8418\" data-event=\"3680\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDo0NDozMC4wNjY3ODcrMDA6MDB8ODQxOA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8418\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-12T20:44:30.066787Z\" title=\"2026-11-12 20:44 UTC · Thu Nov 12, 12:44 PM PST\">12:44 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 12</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-12T20:44:30.066787Z\">21 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8418\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3680-sea-delays#u-8418\">Seattle arrivals back near normal: 19% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 44% at worst → 19% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 31 arrivals that landed between 11:44 AM and 12:44 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>11:44 AM–12:44 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>31 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>19%</b></span><span>Typical <b>19%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3680-sea-delays#u-8418\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3680-sea-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3680\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3680-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"8246\" data-event=\"3607\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwNjoyNDo1MC40Mzk5NjIrMDA6MDB8ODI0Ng\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8246\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-12T06:24:50.439962Z\" title=\"2026-11-12 06:24 UTC · Wed Nov 11, 10:24 PM PST\">10:24 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 11</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-12T06:24:50.439962Z\">35 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8246\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3607-sea-delays#u-8246\">Seattle arrival delays ease: 53% late in the last hour, still above normal</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 68% → 53%</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 36 arrivals that landed between 9:24 PM and 10:24 PM PST, 19 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>9:24 PM–10:24 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>36 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>53%</b></span><span>Typical <b>19%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3607-sea-delays#u-8246\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (3)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3607-sea-delays\">2 earlier matching updates</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3607\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3607-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8200\" data-event=\"3586\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMTowNDoyMi44NDkxNjErMDA6MDB8ODIwMA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8200\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-12T01:04:22.849161Z\" title=\"2026-11-12 01:04 UTC · Wed Nov 11, 5:04 PM PST\">5:04 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 11</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-12T01:04:22.849161Z\">40 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8200\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3586-sea-delays#u-8200\">Seattle arrivals back near normal: 25% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 59% at worst → 25% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 24 arrivals that landed between 4:04 PM and 5:04 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>4:04 PM–5:04 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>24 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>25%</b></span><span>Typical <b>19%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3586-sea-delays#u-8200\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3586-sea-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3586\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3586-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8164\" data-event=\"3569\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQyMDo0NjoyNi42MTM5NjQrMDA6MDB8ODE2NA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8164\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-11T20:46:26.613964Z\" title=\"2026-11-11 20:46 UTC · Wed Nov 11, 12:46 PM PST\">12:46 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 11</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-11T20:46:26.613964Z\">45 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8164\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3569-sea-delays#u-8164\">Seattle arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 58% at worst → 24% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 29 arrivals that landed between 11:46 AM and 12:46 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>11:46 AM–12:46 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>29 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>24%</b></span><span>Typical <b>19%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3569-sea-delays#u-8164\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3569-sea-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3569\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3569-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8139\" data-event=\"3558\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwNzozMToyMy43ODk3NTIrMDA6MDB8ODEzOQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8139\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-11T07:31:23.789752Z\" title=\"2026-11-11 07:31 UTC · Tue Nov 10, 11:31 PM PST\">11:31 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 10</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-11T07:31:23.789752Z\">2 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8139\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3558-sea-delays#u-8139\">Seattle departures back near normal: 8% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 53% at worst → 8% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 24 departures that took off between 10:31 PM and 11:31 PM PST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>10:31 PM–11:31 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>24 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>8%</b></span><span>Typical <b>20%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3558-sea-delays#u-8139\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3558-sea-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3558\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3558-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8137\" data-event=\"3557\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwNTowMzoxMC43NzgxNzErMDA6MDB8ODEzNw\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8137\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-11T05:03:10.778171Z\" title=\"2026-11-11 05:03 UTC · Tue Nov 10, 9:03 PM PST\">9:03 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 10</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-11T05:03:10.778171Z\">2 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8137\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3557-sea-delays#u-8137\">Seattle departures back near normal: 21% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 63% at worst → 21% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 29 departures that took off between 8:03 PM and 9:03 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>8:03 PM–9:03 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>29 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>21%</b></span><span>Typical <b>26%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3557-sea-delays#u-8137\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (3)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3557-sea-delays\">2 earlier matching updates</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3557\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3557-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"8135\" data-event=\"3543\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwNDo0MDo1MC4zODgzODMrMDA6MDB8ODEzNQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8135\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-11T04:40:50.388383Z\" title=\"2026-11-11 04:40 UTC · Tue Nov 10, 8:40 PM PST\">8:40 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 10</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-11T04:40:50.388383Z\">2 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8135\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3543-sea-delays#u-8135\">Seattle arrival delays ease: 55% late in the last hour, still above normal</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 62% → 55%</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 31 arrivals that landed between 7:40 PM and 8:40 PM PST, 17 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>7:40 PM–8:40 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>31 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>55%</b></span><span>Typical <b>19%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3543-sea-delays#u-8135\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (9)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3543-sea-delays\">8 earlier matching updates</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3543\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3543-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8125\" data-event=\"3551\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwMjozNDoyMS4wNTk4NTQrMDA6MDB8ODEyNQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8125\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-11T02:34:21.059854Z\" title=\"2026-11-11 02:34 UTC · Tue Nov 10, 6:34 PM PST\">6:34 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 10</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-11T02:34:21.059854Z\">2 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8125\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3551-sea-delays#u-8125\">Seattle departures back near normal: 13% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 52% at worst → 13% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 23 departures that took off between 5:34 PM and 6:34 PM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>5:34 PM–6:34 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>23 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>13%</b></span><span>Typical <b>24%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3551-sea-delays#u-8125\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3551-sea-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3551\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3551-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8111\" data-event=\"3546\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQyMjo1NzoyOC40MzE5NDErMDA6MDB8ODExMQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8111\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-10T22:57:28.431941Z\" title=\"2026-11-10 22:57 UTC · Tue Nov 10, 2:57 PM PST\">2:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 10</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-10T22:57:28.431941Z\">2 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 31%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Resolution</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8111\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3546-sea-delays#u-8111\">Model lowers Seattle departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 31%, near normal</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 45% → 31%; calm-weather level 18%</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Seattle 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>31%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>3.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3546-sea-delays#u-8111\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3546-sea-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3546\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3546-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8109\" data-event=\"3544\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQyMjoxNDoyMS45NTkzNzIrMDA6MDB8ODEwOQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8109\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-10T22:14:21.959372Z\" title=\"2026-11-10 22:14 UTC · Tue Nov 10, 2:14 PM PST\">2:14 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 10</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-10T22:14:21.959372Z\">2 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8109\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3544-sea-delays#u-8109\">Seattle departures back near normal: 16% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 89% at worst → 16% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 31 departures that took off between 1:14 PM and 2:14 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>1:14 PM–2:14 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>31 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>16%</b></span><span>Typical <b>22%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3544-sea-delays#u-8109\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3544-sea-delays\">3 earlier matching updates</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3544\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3544-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8091\" data-event=\"3514\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxNToxMDozNC43NzU2NzcrMDA6MDB8ODA5MQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8091\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-10T15:10:34.775677Z\" title=\"2026-11-10 15:10 UTC · Tue Nov 10, 7:10 AM PST\">7:10 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 10</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-10T15:10:34.775677Z\">3 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8091\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3514-sea-delays#u-8091\">Seattle departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 83% at worst → 7% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 14 departures that took off between 6:10 AM and 7:10 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 7% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 17% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>6:10 AM–7:10 AM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>14 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>7%</b></span><span>Typical <b>7%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3514-sea-delays#u-8091\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3514-sea-delays\">4 earlier matching updates</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3514\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3514-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8088\" data-event=\"3506\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxNDozMTowMi41MjM5MTYrMDA6MDB8ODA4OA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8088\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-10T14:31:02.523916Z\" title=\"2026-11-10 14:31 UTC · Tue Nov 10, 6:31 AM PST\">6:31 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 10</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-10T14:31:02.523916Z\">3 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8088\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3506-sea-delays#u-8088\">Seattle arrivals back near normal: 7% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 88% at worst → 7% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:31 AM and 6:31 AM PST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>5:31 AM–6:31 AM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>15 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>7%</b></span><span>Typical <b>19%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3506-sea-delays#u-8088\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (8)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3506-sea-delays\">7 earlier matching updates</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3506\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3506-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8086\" data-event=\"3539\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxMzoyNjowNC43MjAxNDUrMDA6MDB8ODA4Ng\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8086\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-10T13:26:04.720145Z\" title=\"2026-11-10 13:26 UTC · Tue Nov 10, 5:26 AM PST\">5:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 10</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-10T13:26:04.720145Z\">3 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 26%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Resolution</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8086\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3539-sea-delays#u-8086\">Model lowers Seattle departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 26%, near normal</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 44% → 26%; calm-weather level 16%</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 26% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>26%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>6.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3539-sea-delays#u-8086\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3539-sea-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3539\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3539-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8085\" data-event=\"3538\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxMzoyNjowNC42Nzg0NDIrMDA6MDB8ODA4NQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8085\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-10T13:26:04.678442Z\" title=\"2026-11-10 13:26 UTC · Tue Nov 10, 5:26 AM PST\">5:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 10</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-10T13:26:04.678442Z\">3 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 22%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Resolution</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8085\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3538-sea-delays#u-8085\">Model lowers Seattle departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday to 22%, near normal</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 43% → 22%; calm-weather level 15%</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 119 departures scheduled from Seattle 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>22%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>3.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3538-sea-delays#u-8085\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3538-sea-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3538\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3538-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"8005\" data-event=\"3503\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMjozNjoyNC4zNzkzNTMrMDA6MDB8ODAwNQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8005\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-10T02:36:24.379353Z\" title=\"2026-11-10 02:36 UTC · Mon Nov 9, 6:36 PM PST\">6:36 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 9</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-10T02:36:24.379353Z\">3 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8005\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3503-sea-delays#u-8005\">Seattle departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 50% at worst → 12% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 26 departures that took off between 5:36 PM and 6:36 PM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>5:36 PM–6:36 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>26 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>12%</b></span><span>Typical <b>24%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3503-sea-delays#u-8005\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3503-sea-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3503\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3503-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"7984\" data-event=\"3499\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMDo1MDowMi4xMzM4MzgrMDA6MDB8Nzk4NA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7984\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-10T00:50:02.133838Z\" title=\"2026-11-10 00:50 UTC · Mon Nov 9, 4:50 PM PST\">4:50 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 9</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-10T00:50:02.133838Z\">3 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-7984\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3499-sea-delays#u-7984\">Seattle arrivals back near normal: 29% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 48% at worst → 29% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 21 arrivals that landed between 3:50 PM and 4:50 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>3:50 PM–4:50 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>21 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>29%</b></span><span>Typical <b>19%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3499-sea-delays#u-7984\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3499-sea-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3499\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3499-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"7920\" data-event=\"3463\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMDoyMzo0OC42OTYzNTIrMDA6MDB8NzkyMA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7920\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-09T20:23:48.696352Z\" title=\"2026-11-09 20:23 UTC · Mon Nov 9, 12:23 PM PST\">12:23 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 9</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-09T20:23:48.696352Z\">3 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-7920\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3463-sea-delays#u-7920\">Seattle arrivals back near normal: 15% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 42% at worst → 15% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 26 arrivals that landed between 11:23 AM and 12:23 PM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>11:23 AM–12:23 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>26 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>15%</b></span><span>Typical <b>19%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3463-sea-delays#u-7920\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3463-sea-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3463\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3463-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"7865\" data-event=\"3402\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNDozMjoyMS4xNjY2NDUrMDA6MDB8Nzg2NQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7865\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-09T14:32:21.166645Z\" title=\"2026-11-09 14:32 UTC · Mon Nov 9, 6:32 AM PST\">6:32 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 9</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-09T14:32:21.166645Z\">4 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-7865\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3402-sea-delays#u-7865\">Seattle arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 82% at worst → 0% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 16 arrivals that landed between 5:32 AM and 6:32 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>5:32 AM–6:32 AM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>16 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>0%</b></span><span>Typical <b>19%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3402-sea-delays#u-7865\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3402-sea-delays\">3 earlier matching updates</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3402\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3402-sea-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"7864\" data-event=\"3414\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNDowNzoyOS4yMTc1MTgrMDA6MDB8Nzg2NA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7864\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-09T14:07:29.217518Z\" title=\"2026-11-09 14:07 UTC · Mon Nov 9, 6:07 AM PST\">6:07 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 9</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-09T14:07:29.217518Z\">4 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Inbound aircraft</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SEA\">SEA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-7864\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3414-sea-aircraft-turns#u-7864\">Seattle aircraft turns back near normal: 0 of 14 departures in the next 90 min are tight</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> tight share 32% at worst → 0% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of the 42 departures scheduled from Seattle (SEA) between 6:07 AM and 7:37 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 14. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SEA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Next <b>6:07 AM–7:37 AM PST</b></span><span>Tight turns <b>0 of 14</b></span><span>Share <b>0%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3414-sea-aircraft-turns#u-7864\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/3414-sea-aircraft-turns\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SEA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SEA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3414\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3414-sea-aircraft-turns\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n"],"filters":"airport=SEA"}