{"items":[{"id":10326,"event_id":4393,"slug":"4393-sea-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 4 among Seattle departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 93 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:09.825457Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjowOS44MjU0NTcrMDA6MDB8MTAzMjY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.4,"target":"SEA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":6.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":93,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10326,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10325,"event_id":4345,"slug":"4345-sea-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Seattle departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 119 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 5 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:09.822006Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjowOS44MjIwMDYrMDA6MDB8MTAzMjU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.1,"target":"SEA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":119,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10325,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10324,"event_id":4255,"slug":"4255-sea-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Seattle departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 5 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:09.818320Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjowOS44MTgzMjArMDA6MDB8MTAzMjQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.6,"target":"SEA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":100,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10324,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9716,"event_id":4172,"slug":"4172-sea-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 23 → 12 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.546916Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi41NDY5MTYrMDA6MDB8OTcxNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":12.2,"target":"SEA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":61,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9716,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9532,"event_id":4156,"slug":"4156-sea-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 21 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.330982Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4zMzA5ODIrMDA6MDB8OTUzMg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":20.8,"target":"SEA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":79,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9532,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9277,"event_id":4086,"slug":"4086-sea-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 5 cancellations among Seattle departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 100 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SEA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.017917Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4wMTc5MTcrMDA6MDB8OTI3Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.2,"target":"SEA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":100,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9277,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjowOS44MjU0NTcrMDA6MDB8MTAzMjY","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 22 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n SEA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 4 among Seattle departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 93 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SEA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 22 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n SEA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Seattle departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 10 → 5 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 119 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View SEA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 22 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n SEA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Seattle departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 5 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View SEA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n SEA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Seattle departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n

What changed: about 23 → 12 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View SEA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SEA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among Seattle departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 21 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 79 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~21 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SEA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n SEA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 5 cancellations among Seattle departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 100 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SEA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=SEA"}