{"items":[{"id":8810,"event_id":3868,"slug":"3868-sfo-taxi-in","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 13+ min","body":"Of 15 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 11:40 PM and 12:40 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 1 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 2.3 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 13% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.","what_changed":"slow share 35% at worst → 7% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:51.187392Z","time":"12:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:40:00Z","time":"12:40 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:40 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"12:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MS4xODczOTIrMDA6MDB8ODgxMA","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","11:40 PM–12:40 AM PST"],["Sample","15 arrivals"],["Slow","7%"],["Usually","5%"]],"rows":[["Landings","11:40 PM–12:40 AM PST · 15 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","1 (7%) took 13+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","5% usually · typical taxi-in 3.1 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","2.3 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8810,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8774,"event_id":3858,"slug":"3858-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departure delays worsen: 65% late in the last hour","body":"Of 31 departures that took off between 11:25 PM and 12:25 AM PST, 20 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 56% → 65%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:25:23.479419Z","time":"12:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:25:00Z","time":"12:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:25:23.219035Z","time":"12:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNToyMy40Nzk0MTkrMDA6MDB8ODc3NA","measurement":{"window":"11:25 PM–12:25 AM PST","n":31,"late_n":20,"share_pct":"65%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":19.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8774,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8755,"event_id":3862,"slug":"3862-sfo-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 56% delay risk for SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:56:06.255454Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:56:05.027995Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjo1NjowNi4yNTU0NTQrMDA6MDB8ODc1NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":2.2,"target":"SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":22.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":80,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8755,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8730,"event_id":3842,"slug":"3842-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departures back near normal: 22% late in the last hour","body":"Of 23 departures that took off between 8:48 PM and 9:48 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 83% at worst → 22% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:48.802286Z","time":"9:48 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:48 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:00Z","time":"9:48 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:48 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:48.562112Z","time":"9:48 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:48 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTo0ODo0OC44MDIyODYrMDA6MDB8ODczMA","measurement":{"window":"8:48 PM–9:48 PM PST","n":23,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"22%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":3.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8730,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8662,"event_id":3778,"slug":"3778-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.346629Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni4zNDY2MjkrMDA6MDB8ODY2Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.8,"target":"SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":19.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":94,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8662,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8661,"event_id":3831,"slug":"3831-sfo-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 67% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.342277Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni4zNDIyNzcrMDA6MDB8ODY2MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"67%","expected_cancellations":4.2,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":22.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":80,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8661,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8660,"event_id":3673,"slug":"3673-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"53% → 56% since the 5:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.337699Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni4zMzc2OTkrMDA6MDB8ODY2MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":6.6,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":13.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":106,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8660,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8659,"event_id":3624,"slug":"3624-sfo-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model now puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 40%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 45%; calm-weather level 40%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.274061Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni4yNzQwNjErMDA6MDB8ODY1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":1.3,"target":"SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":85,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8659,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8648,"event_id":3747,"slug":"3747-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour","body":"Of 25 departures that took off between 6:28 PM and 7:28 PM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 100% at worst → 12% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:28:16.195637Z","time":"7:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:28:00Z","time":"7:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:28 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:28:15.929519Z","time":"7:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzoyODoxNi4xOTU2MzcrMDA6MDB8ODY0OA","measurement":{"window":"6:28 PM–7:28 PM PST","n":25,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"12%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":8648,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8550,"event_id":3777,"slug":"3777-sfo-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 74% delay risk for SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Friday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.609252Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy42MDkyNTIrMDA6MDB8ODU1MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"74%","expected_cancellations":9.4,"target":"SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":21.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":93,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8550,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8549,"event_id":3741,"slug":"3741-sfo-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 46%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 46%; calm-weather level 39%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.601664Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy42MDE2NjQrMDA6MDB8ODU0OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":80,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8549,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8464,"event_id":3728,"slug":"3728-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 10 cancellations among SFO departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 118 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:58:20.205478Z","time":"1:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:58:18.984943Z","time":"1:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1ODoyMC4yMDU0NzgrMDA6MDB8ODQ2NA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.3,"target":"SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":22.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":118,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8464,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8463,"event_id":3727,"slug":"3727-sfo-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 74% delay risk for SFO departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Friday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:58:20.201769Z","time":"1:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:58:18.984943Z","time":"1:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1ODoyMC4yMDE3NjkrMDA6MDB8ODQ2Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"74%","expected_cancellations":10.3,"target":"SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":22.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":118,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8463,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8445,"event_id":3648,"slug":"3648-sfo-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 37%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 37%; calm-weather level 34%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.618821Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi42MTg4MjErMDA6MDB8ODQ0NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"37%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":80,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8445,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8444,"event_id":3614,"slug":"3614-sfo-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 37%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Thursday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 37%; calm-weather level 41%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.611556Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi42MTE1NTYrMDA6MDB8ODQ0NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"37%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":91,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8444,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8370,"event_id":3674,"slug":"3674-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 106 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:57:49.183929Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:57:47.134972Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1Nzo0OS4xODM5MjkrMDA6MDB8ODM3MA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.3,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":22.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":106,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8370,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8354,"event_id":3591,"slug":"3591-sfo-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 41%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 124 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 41%; calm-weather level 41%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:45.425383Z","time":"10:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:44.534616Z","time":"10:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1NTo0NS40MjUzODMrMDA6MDB8ODM1NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":1.4,"target":"SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":124,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8354,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8183,"event_id":3574,"slug":"3574-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departures back near normal: 22% late in the last hour","body":"Of 45 departures that took off between 1:55 PM and 2:55 PM PST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 61% at worst → 22% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T22:55:10.811955Z","time":"2:55 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:55 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 22:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T22:55:00Z","time":"2:55 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:55 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 22:55 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T22:55:10.370034Z","time":"2:55 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:55 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQyMjo1NToxMC44MTE5NTUrMDA6MDB8ODE4Mw","measurement":{"window":"1:55 PM–2:55 PM PST","n":45,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"22%","baseline_pct":"32%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8183,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8171,"event_id":3568,"slug":"3568-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO arrivals back near normal: 16% late in the last hour","body":"Of 25 arrivals that landed between 12:53 PM and 1:53 PM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 68% at worst → 16% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:53:54.041879Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 1:53 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:53 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:53:00Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 1:53 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:53:53.405627Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 1:53 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:53 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQyMTo1Mzo1NC4wNDE4NzkrMDA6MDB8ODE3MQ","measurement":{"window":"12:53 PM–1:53 PM PST","n":25,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"16%","baseline_pct":"31%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8171,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8090,"event_id":3472,"slug":"3472-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 6:04 AM and 7:04 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 95% at worst → 7% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:04:19.240048Z","time":"7:04 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:04 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:04 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:04:00Z","time":"7:04 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:04 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:04 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:04:18.702251Z","time":"7:04 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:04 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:04 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxNTowNDoxOS4yNDAwNDgrMDA6MDB8ODA5MA","measurement":{"window":"6:04 AM–7:04 AM PST","n":15,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"7%","baseline_pct":"6%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":8,"latest_update_id":8090,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":8,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8064,"event_id":3468,"slug":"3468-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO arrivals back near normal: 25% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 arrivals that landed between 11:01 PM and 12:01 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 84% at worst → 25% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T08:01:30.646745Z","time":"12:01 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:01 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 08:01 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T08:01:00Z","time":"12:01 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:01 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 08:01 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T08:01:30.346980Z","time":"12:01 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:01 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 08:01 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwODowMTozMC42NDY3NDUrMDA6MDB8ODA2NA","measurement":{"window":"11:01 PM–12:01 AM PST","n":24,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"25%","baseline_pct":"31%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8064,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8037,"event_id":3476,"slug":"3476-sfo-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 41%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 41%; calm-weather level 36%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:56:54.256995Z","time":"8:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:56:52.242121Z","time":"8:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNDo1Njo1NC4yNTY5OTUrMDA6MDB8ODAzNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":1.8,"target":"SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":84,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8037,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8009,"event_id":3467,"slug":"3467-sfo-aircraft-turns","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"SFO aircraft turns back near normal: 0 of 14 departures in the next 90 min are tight","body":"Of the 21 departures scheduled from SFO (SFO) between 6:59 PM and 8:29 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 14. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SFO is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.","what_changed":"tight share 61% at worst → 0% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:59:07.899319Z","time":"6:59 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:59 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:59:00Z","time":"6:59 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:59 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:59:06.366354Z","time":"6:59 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:59 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMjo1OTowNy44OTkzMTkrMDA6MDB8ODAwOQ","measure":{"chips":[["Next","6:59 PM–8:29 PM PST"],["Tight turns","0 of 14"],["Share","0%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","6:59 PM–8:29 PM PST · 21 departures, aircraft known for 14"],["Tight turns","0 (0%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 0 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8009,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7962,"event_id":3457,"slug":"3457-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"46% → 56% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:56:29.954798Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:56:28.329194Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMjo1NjoyOS45NTQ3OTgrMDA6MDB8Nzk2Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":2.2,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":78,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7962,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7944,"event_id":3456,"slug":"3456-sfo-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 51%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"56% → 51% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:57:46.461582Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:57:43.251426Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMTo1Nzo0Ni40NjE1ODIrMDA6MDB8Nzk0NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":1.5,"target":"SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":95,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7944,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMTo1Nzo0Ni40NjE1ODIrMDA6MDB8Nzk0NA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MS4xODczOTIrMDA6MDB8ODgxMA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Slow taxi-in\n SFO\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 13+ min

\n

What changed: slow share 35% at worst → 7% now

\n \n

Of 15 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 11:40 PM and 12:40 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 1 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 2.3 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 13% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.

\n \n

Landed 11:40 PM–12:40 AM PSTSample 15 arrivalsSlow 7%Usually 5%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

SFO departure delays worsen: 65% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 56% → 65%

\n \n

Of 31 departures that took off between 11:25 PM and 12:25 AM PST, 20 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:25 PM–12:25 AM PSTSample 31 flightsLate 65%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 56%\n Major\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 56% delay risk for SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 56%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

SFO departures back near normal: 22% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 83% at worst → 22% now

\n \n

Of 23 departures that took off between 8:48 PM and 9:48 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 8:48 PM–9:48 PM PSTSample 23 flightsLate 22%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 19.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 67%\n Major\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 67% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 67%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 56%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 56%

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What changed: 53% → 56% since the 5:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 56%Horizon 13.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 45%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model now puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 40%

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What changed: 45% → 45%; calm-weather level 40%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 45%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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SFO departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 100% at worst → 12% now

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Of 25 departures that took off between 6:28 PM and 7:28 PM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 6:28 PM–7:28 PM PSTSample 25 flightsLate 12%Typical 24%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 74%\n Major\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 74% delay risk for SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Friday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 74%Horizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 46%, near normal

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What changed: 50% → 46%; calm-weather level 39%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 46%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 12 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 10 cancellations among SFO departures noon–3 PM Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 118 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 22.0 hModel famA-fc-v3

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 12 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 74%\n Major\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 74% delay risk for SFO departures noon–3 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Friday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 74%Horizon 22.0 hModel famA-fc-v3

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 12 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 37%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 37%, near normal

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What changed: 44% → 37%; calm-weather level 34%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 37%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 12 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 37%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 37%, near normal

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What changed: 44% → 37%; calm-weather level 41%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Thursday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 37%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 15 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 8 cancellations among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 106 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 22.0 hModel famA-fc-v3

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 15 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 41%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 41%, near normal

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What changed: 44% → 41%; calm-weather level 41%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 124 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 41%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 11\n 35 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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SFO departures back near normal: 22% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 61% at worst → 22% now

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Of 45 departures that took off between 1:55 PM and 2:55 PM PST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 1:55 PM–2:55 PM PSTSample 45 flightsLate 22%Typical 32%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 11\n 36 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SFO\n arrivals\n \n \n
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SFO arrivals back near normal: 16% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 68% at worst → 16% now

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Of 25 arrivals that landed between 12:53 PM and 1:53 PM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 12:53 PM–1:53 PM PSTSample 25 flightsLate 16%Typical 31%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 10\n 2 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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SFO departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 95% at worst → 7% now

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Of 15 departures that took off between 6:04 AM and 7:04 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 6:04 AM–7:04 AM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 7%Typical 6%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (8)\n 7 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 10\n 3 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SFO\n arrivals\n \n \n
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SFO arrivals back near normal: 25% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 84% at worst → 25% now

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Of 24 arrivals that landed between 11:01 PM and 12:01 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 11:01 PM–12:01 AM PSTSample 24 flightsLate 25%Typical 31%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 41%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 41%, near normal

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What changed: 45% → 41%; calm-weather level 36%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 41%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Inbound aircraft\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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SFO aircraft turns back near normal: 0 of 14 departures in the next 90 min are tight

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What changed: tight share 61% at worst → 0% now

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Of the 21 departures scheduled from SFO (SFO) between 6:59 PM and 8:29 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 14. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SFO is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.

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Next 6:59 PM–8:29 PM PSTTight turns 0 of 14Share 0%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 56%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 56%

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What changed: 46% → 56% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 56%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 51%

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What changed: 56% → 51% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 51%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"airport=SFO"}