{"items":[{"id":10195,"event_id":4321,"slug":"4321-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.173275Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4xNzMyNzUrMDA6MDB8MTAxOTU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.3,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":103,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10195,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10096,"event_id":4201,"slug":"4201-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 15 → 7 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.820494Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC44MjA0OTQrMDA6MDB8MTAwOTY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.3,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":92,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10096,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10095,"event_id":4320,"slug":"4320-sfo-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 48%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"60% → 48% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.814811Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC44MTQ4MTErMDA6MDB8MTAwOTU","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":8.0,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":102,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10095,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10094,"event_id":4293,"slug":"4293-sfo-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 25%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 AM Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 25%; calm-weather level 15%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.776182Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC43NzYxODIrMDA6MDB8MTAwOTQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"25%","expected_cancellations":7.3,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":92,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10094,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10049,"event_id":4405,"slug":"4405-sfo-taxi-in","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"SFO arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 40% took 13+ min after landing","body":"Of 10 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 12:54 AM and 1:54 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 4 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 8.9 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:09:21.616377Z","time":"2:09 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:09 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:09 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:54:00Z","time":"1:54 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:54 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:54 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:09:17.308953Z","time":"2:09 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:09 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:09 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDowOToyMS42MTYzNzcrMDA6MDB8MTAwNDk","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","12:54 AM–1:54 AM PST"],["Sample","10 arrivals"],["Slow","40%"],["Usually","5%"]],"rows":[["Landings","12:54 AM–1:54 AM PST · 10 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","4 (40%) took 13+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","5% usually · typical taxi-in 3.1 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","8.9 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10049,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9959,"event_id":4367,"slug":"4367-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 107 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 5 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.730522Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.231271Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC43MzA1MjIrMDA6MDB8OTk1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.9,"target":"SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":11.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":107,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9959,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9958,"event_id":4321,"slug":"4321-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 37 → 10 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.727764Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.231271Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC43Mjc3NjQrMDA6MDB8OTk1OA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.9,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":103,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10195,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10195,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.173275Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9957,"event_id":4201,"slug":"4201-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 15 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 39 → 15 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.724111Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.231271Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC43MjQxMTErMDA6MDB8OTk1Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":14.9,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":92,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10096,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10096,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.820494Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9949,"event_id":4336,"slug":"4336-sfo-taxi-in","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 12% took 13+ min","body":"Of 17 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 11:16 PM and 12:16 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 2 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 3.3 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 13% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.","what_changed":"slow share 40% at worst → 12% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:31:15.250522Z","time":"12:31 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:31 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:16:00Z","time":"12:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:16 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:31:13.885223Z","time":"12:31 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:31 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODozMToxNS4yNTA1MjIrMDA6MDB8OTk0OQ","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","11:16 PM–12:16 AM PST"],["Sample","17 arrivals"],["Slow","12%"],["Usually","5%"]],"rows":[["Landings","11:16 PM–12:16 AM PST · 17 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","2 (12%) took 13+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","5% usually · typical taxi-in 3.1 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","3.3 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9949,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9915,"event_id":4367,"slug":"4367-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 10 cancellations among SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 107 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.699722Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy42OTk3MjIrMDA6MDB8OTkxNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.3,"target":"SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":11.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":107,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9959,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9959,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.730522Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9914,"event_id":4321,"slug":"4321-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 37 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 37 of the 102 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 32 → 37 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.676534Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy42NzY1MzQrMDA6MDB8OTkxNA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":37.4,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":102,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10195,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10195,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.173275Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9878,"event_id":2668,"slug":"2668-sfo-restriction","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA no longer lists a ground delay program at SFO","body":"The ground delay program for flights to SFO (SFO) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 11:59 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 6:15 AM PST.","what_changed":"ground delay program no longer listed","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:02:39.900592Z","time":"12:02 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:02 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:59:46.425000Z","time":"11:59 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:59 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:02:39.851692Z","time":"12:02 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:02 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:02 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODowMjozOS45MDA1OTIrMDA6MDB8OTg3OA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9878,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9834,"event_id":4321,"slug":"4321-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 32 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 32 of the 102 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (32%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 32 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.411171Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS40MTExNzErMDA6MDB8OTgzNA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":32.5,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":102,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10195,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10195,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.173275Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9833,"event_id":4320,"slug":"4320-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 60%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 60% since the 9:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.406884Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS40MDY4ODQrMDA6MDB8OTgzMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"60%","expected_cancellations":32.5,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":102,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10095,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10095,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 48%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.814811Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9832,"event_id":4114,"slug":"4114-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday at 57%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from SFO midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 57% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.401017Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS40MDEwMTcrMDA6MDB8OTgzMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":12.3,"target":"SFO departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9832,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9806,"event_id":4336,"slug":"4336-sfo-taxi-in","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"SFO arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 33% took 13+ min after landing","body":"Of 12 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 9:26 PM and 10:26 PM PST and have reached the ramp, 4 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 7.7 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:41:25.183588Z","time":"10:41 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:41 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:26:00Z","time":"10:26 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:26 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:41:24.148629Z","time":"10:41 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:41 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo0MToyNS4xODM1ODgrMDA6MDB8OTgwNg","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","9:26 PM–10:26 PM PST"],["Sample","12 arrivals"],["Slow","33%"],["Usually","5%"]],"rows":[["Landings","9:26 PM–10:26 PM PST · 12 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","4 (33%) took 13+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","5% usually · typical taxi-in 3.1 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","7.7 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9949,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9949,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 12% took 13+ min","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:31:15.250522Z","time":"12:31 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:31 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:31 UTC"}}},{"id":9776,"event_id":4321,"slug":"4321-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 11 cancellations among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 101 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.887576Z","time":"9:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.362127Z","time":"9:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NjozNS44ODc1NzYrMDA6MDB8OTc3Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.6,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":11.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":101,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10195,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10195,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.173275Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9775,"event_id":4320,"slug":"4320-sfo-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.883197Z","time":"9:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.362127Z","time":"9:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NjozNS44ODMxOTcrMDA6MDB8OTc3NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":10.6,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":101,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10095,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10095,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 48%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.814811Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9714,"event_id":4201,"slug":"4201-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 39 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 39 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (42%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 39 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.533773Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi41MzM3NzMrMDA6MDB8OTcxNA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":38.6,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":92,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10096,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10096,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.820494Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9713,"event_id":4253,"slug":"4253-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 23 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 10 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.530090Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi41MzAwOTArMDA6MDB8OTcxMw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.8,"target":"SFO departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":23,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9713,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9712,"event_id":4293,"slug":"4293-sfo-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 AM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.523975Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi41MjM5NzUrMDA6MDB8OTcxMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":38.6,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":92,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10094,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10094,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 25%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.776182Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9711,"event_id":4082,"slug":"4082-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 66 among SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 66 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (78%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 58 → 66 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.506033Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi41MDYwMzMrMDA6MDB8OTcxMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":66.4,"target":"SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":85,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":9711,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9691,"event_id":3984,"slug":"3984-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO arrival delays worsen: 93% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 arrivals that landed between 7:35 PM and 8:35 PM PST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 54% → 93%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:35:07.039639Z","time":"8:35 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:35 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:35 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:35:00Z","time":"8:35 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:35 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:35 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:35:06.454377Z","time":"8:35 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:35 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:35 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDozNTowNy4wMzk2MzkrMDA6MDB8OTY5MQ","measurement":{"window":"7:35 PM–8:35 PM PST","n":15,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"93%","baseline_pct":"31%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":278.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":9691,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9653,"event_id":4201,"slug":"4201-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 11 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:17.130144Z","time":"7:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:15.993642Z","time":"7:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNy4xMzAxNDQrMDA6MDB8OTY1Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.9,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":92,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10096,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10096,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.820494Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9652,"event_id":4253,"slug":"4253-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 5 cancellations among SFO departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 22 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:17.125516Z","time":"7:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:15.993642Z","time":"7:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNy4xMjU1MTYrMDA6MDB8OTY1Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.0,"target":"SFO departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9713,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9713,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.530090Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"}}}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNy4xMjU1MTYrMDA6MDB8OTY1Mg","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4xNzMyNzUrMDA6MDB8MTAxOTU","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"10195\" data-event=\"4321\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4xNzMyNzUrMDA6MDB8MTAxOTU\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10195\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T11:57:34.173275Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST\">3:57 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T11:57:34.173275Z\">28 min ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10195\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-10195\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 10 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~6 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>5.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-10195\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4321\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"10096\" data-event=\"4201\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC44MjA0OTQrMDA6MDB8MTAwOTY\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10096\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T10:56:04.820494Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST\">2:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T10:56:04.820494Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10096\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4201-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-10096\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 15 → 7 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~7 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>3.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4201-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-10096\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4201\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4201-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"10095\" data-event=\"4320\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC44MTQ4MTErMDA6MDB8MTAwOTU\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10095\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T10:56:04.814811Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST\">2:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T10:56:04.814811Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 48%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10095\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4320-sfo-delays#u-10095\">Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 48%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 60% → 48% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>48%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>6.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4320-sfo-delays#u-10095\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (3)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4320\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4320-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"10094\" data-event=\"4293\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC43NzYxODIrMDA6MDB8MTAwOTQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10094\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T10:56:04.776182Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST\">2:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T10:56:04.776182Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 25%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Resolution</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10094\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4293-sfo-delays#u-10094\">Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 25%, near normal</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 42% → 25%; calm-weather level 15%</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 AM Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>25%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>3.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4293-sfo-delays#u-10094\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4293\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4293-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"10049\" data-event=\"4405\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDowOToyMS42MTYzNzcrMDA6MDB8MTAwNDk\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10049\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T10:09:21.616377Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 10:09 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 2:09 AM PST\">2:09 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T10:09:21.616377Z\">2 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">New</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Slow taxi-in</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10049\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4405-sfo-taxi-in#u-10049\">SFO arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 40% took 13+ min after landing</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 10 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 12:54 AM and 1:54 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 4 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 8.9 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Landed <b>12:54 AM–1:54 AM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>10 arrivals</b></span><span>Slow <b>40%</b></span><span>Usually <b>5%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4405-sfo-taxi-in#u-10049\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4405\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4405-sfo-taxi-in\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"9959\" data-event=\"4367\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC43MzA1MjIrMDA6MDB8OTk1OQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9959\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T08:57:50.730522Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM PST\">12:57 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T08:57:50.730522Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9959\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4367-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9959\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 10 → 5 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 107 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~5 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>11.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4367-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9959\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4367\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4367-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"9958\" data-event=\"4321\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC43Mjc3NjQrMDA6MDB8OTk1OA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9958\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T08:57:50.727764Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM PST\">12:57 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T08:57:50.727764Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9958\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9958\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 37 → 10 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~10 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>8.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9958\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4321\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"9957\" data-event=\"4201\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC43MjQxMTErMDA6MDB8OTk1Nw\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9957\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T08:57:50.724111Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM PST\">12:57 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T08:57:50.724111Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9957\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4201-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9957\">Updated model now expects about 15 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 39 → 15 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM PST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~15 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>5.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4201-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9957\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4201\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4201-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"9949\" data-event=\"4336\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODozMToxNS4yNTA1MjIrMDA6MDB8OTk0OQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9949\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T08:31:15.250522Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 08:31 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 12:31 AM PST\">12:31 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T08:31:15.250522Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Slow taxi-in</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9949\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4336-sfo-taxi-in#u-9949\">SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 12% took 13+ min</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> slow share 40% at worst → 12% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 17 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 11:16 PM and 12:16 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 2 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 3.3 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 13% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Landed <b>11:16 PM–12:16 AM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>17 arrivals</b></span><span>Slow <b>12%</b></span><span>Usually <b>5%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4336-sfo-taxi-in#u-9949\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4336\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4336-sfo-taxi-in\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"9915\" data-event=\"4367\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy42OTk3MjIrMDA6MDB8OTkxNQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9915\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T08:27:07.699722Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST\">12:27 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T08:27:07.699722Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9915\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4367-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9915\">Model expects about 10 cancellations among SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 107 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~10 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>11.5 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4367-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9915\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4367\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4367-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"9914\" data-event=\"4321\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy42NzY1MzQrMDA6MDB8OTkxNA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9914\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T08:27:07.676534Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST\">12:27 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T08:27:07.676534Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9914\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9914\">Updated model now expects about 37 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 32 → 37 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM PST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 37 of the 102 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~37 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>8.5 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9914\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4321\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"9878\" data-event=\"2668\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODowMjozOS45MDA1OTIrMDA6MDB8OTg3OA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9878\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T08:02:39.900592Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 08:02 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 12:02 AM PST\">12:02 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T08:02:39.900592Z\">4 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-confirmed\" title=\"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-check\"/></svg>Confirmed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Resolution</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Traffic restriction</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9878\"><a href=\"/wire/events/2668-sfo-restriction#u-9878\">FAA no longer lists a ground delay program at SFO</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> ground delay program no longer listed</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">The ground delay program for flights to SFO (SFO) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 11:59 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 6:15 AM PST.</p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: <a href=\"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗</a></span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/2668-sfo-restriction#u-9878\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"2668\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/2668-sfo-restriction\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"9834\" data-event=\"4321\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS40MTExNzErMDA6MDB8OTgzNA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9834\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T06:57:41.411171Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST\">10:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T06:57:41.411171Z\">5 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9834\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9834\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 32 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 11 → 32 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM PST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 32 of the 102 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (32%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~32 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>10.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9834\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4321\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"9833\" data-event=\"4320\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS40MDY4ODQrMDA6MDB8OTgzMw\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9833\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T06:57:41.406884Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST\">10:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T06:57:41.406884Z\">5 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 60%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9833\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4320-sfo-delays#u-9833\">Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 60%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 42% → 60% since the 9:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>60%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>10.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4320-sfo-delays#u-9833\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (3)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4320\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4320-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"9832\" data-event=\"4114\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS40MDEwMTcrMDA6MDB8OTgzMg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9832\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T06:57:41.401017Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST\">10:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T06:57:41.401017Z\">5 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 57%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9832\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4114-sfo-delays#u-9832\">Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday at 57%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 44% → 57% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from SFO midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>57%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>1.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4114-sfo-delays#u-9832\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4114\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4114-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"9806\" data-event=\"4336\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo0MToyNS4xODM1ODgrMDA6MDB8OTgwNg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9806\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T06:41:25.183588Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 06:41 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 10:41 PM PST\">10:41 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T06:41:25.183588Z\">5 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Slow taxi-in</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9806\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4336-sfo-taxi-in#u-9806\">SFO arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 33% took 13+ min after landing</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 12 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 9:26 PM and 10:26 PM PST and have reached the ramp, 4 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 7.7 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Landed <b>9:26 PM–10:26 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>12 arrivals</b></span><span>Slow <b>33%</b></span><span>Usually <b>5%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4336-sfo-taxi-in#u-9806\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4336\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4336-sfo-taxi-in\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"9776\" data-event=\"4321\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NjozNS44ODc1NzYrMDA6MDB8OTc3Ng\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9776\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T05:56:35.887576Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 9:56 PM PST\">9:56 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T05:56:35.887576Z\">6 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9776\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9776\">Model expects about 11 cancellations among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 101 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~11 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>11.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9776\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4321\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4321-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"9775\" data-event=\"4320\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NjozNS44ODMxOTcrMDA6MDB8OTc3NQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9775\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T05:56:35.883197Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 9:56 PM PST\">9:56 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T05:56:35.883197Z\">6 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 42%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9775\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4320-sfo-delays#u-9775\">Model forecasts 42% delay risk for SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>42%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>11.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4320-sfo-delays#u-9775\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (3)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4320\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4320-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"9714\" data-event=\"4201\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi41MzM3NzMrMDA6MDB8OTcxNA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9714\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T04:57:42.533773Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST\">8:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T04:57:42.533773Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9714\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4201-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9714\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 39 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 11 → 39 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 39 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (42%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~39 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>9.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4201-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9714\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4201\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4201-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"9713\" data-event=\"4253\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi41MzAwOTArMDA6MDB8OTcxMw\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9713\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T04:57:42.530090Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST\">8:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T04:57:42.530090Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9713\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4253-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9713\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures midnight–3 AM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 5 → 10 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 23 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~10 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>3.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4253-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9713\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4253\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4253-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"9712\" data-event=\"4293\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi41MjM5NzUrMDA6MDB8OTcxMg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9712\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T04:57:42.523975Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST\">8:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T04:57:42.523975Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 42%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9712\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4293-sfo-delays#u-9712\">Model forecasts 42% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 AM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>42%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>9.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4293-sfo-delays#u-9712\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4293\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4293-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"9711\" data-event=\"4082\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi41MDYwMzMrMDA6MDB8OTcxMQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9711\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T04:57:42.506033Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST\">8:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T04:57:42.506033Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9711\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4082-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9711\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 66 among SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 58 → 66 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 66 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (78%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~66 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>0.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4082-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9711\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (6)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4082\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4082-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"9691\" data-event=\"3984\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDozNTowNy4wMzk2MzkrMDA6MDB8OTY5MQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9691\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T04:35:07.039639Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 04:35 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 8:35 PM PST\">8:35 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T04:35:07.039639Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9691\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3984-sfo-delays#u-9691\">SFO arrival delays worsen: 93% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 54% → 93%</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 15 arrivals that landed between 7:35 PM and 8:35 PM PST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>7:35 PM–8:35 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>15 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>93%</b></span><span>Typical <b>31%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3984-sfo-delays#u-9691\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (6)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3984\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3984-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"9653\" data-event=\"4201\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNy4xMzAxNDQrMDA6MDB8OTY1Mw\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9653\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T03:58:17.130144Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 7:58 PM PST\">7:58 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T03:58:17.130144Z\">8 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9653\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4201-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9653\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 5 → 11 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~11 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>10.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4201-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9653\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4201\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4201-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"9652\" data-event=\"4253\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNy4xMjU1MTYrMDA6MDB8OTY1Mg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9652\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T03:58:17.125516Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 7:58 PM PST\">7:58 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T03:58:17.125516Z\">8 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-9652\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4253-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9652\">Model expects about 5 cancellations among SFO departures midnight–3 AM Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 22 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~5 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>4.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4253-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-9652\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4253\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4253-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n"],"filters":"airport=SFO&mode=all"}