{"items":[{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9153,"event_id":4027,"slug":"4027-sfo-weather","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at SFO","body":"The 12:38 PM PST official weather observation (METAR) for SFO (SFO) reports heavy rain; mist, ceiling 2400 ft, visibility 2.5 mi, wind 7 kt. Coded weather: “+RA BR”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:54:13.639105Z","time":"12:54 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:54 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:38:00Z","time":"12:38 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"43 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:38 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:38 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:54:12.021717Z","time":"12:54 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:54 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NDoxMy42MzkxMDUrMDA6MDB8OTE1Mw","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","12:38 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSFO 132038Z 28007KT 2 1/2SM R28R/5500VP6000FT +RA BR BKN024 OVC029 13/12 A2959 RMK AO2 PK WND 23028/1957 P0032 T01330117"],["Station","KSFO at Fri Nov 13, 12:38 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9153,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSFO&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9149,"event_id":2668,"slug":"2668-sfo-restriction","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA now lists SFO ground delay program until 11:59 PM PST","body":"The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to SFO (SFO), citing “wind”; it gives an average delay of 138 min and a maximum of 690 min. Departures to SFO are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.","what_changed":"end 11:59 PM PST → 11:59 PM PST","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:54:12.149771Z","time":"12:54 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:54 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:45:00Z","time":"10:45 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:45 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:54:12.021717Z","time":"12:54 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:54 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NDoxMi4xNDk3NzErMDA6MDB8OTE0OQ","lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9149,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9109,"event_id":3983,"slug":"3983-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departure delays worsen: 73% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 departures that took off between 11:06 AM and 12:06 PM PST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 56% → 73%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:06:53.594808Z","time":"12:06 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:06:00Z","time":"12:06 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:06:52.946686Z","time":"12:06 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDowNjo1My41OTQ4MDgrMDA6MDB8OTEwOQ","measurement":{"window":"11:06 AM–12:06 PM PST","n":22,"late_n":16,"share_pct":"73%","baseline_pct":"28%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":30.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9109,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9105,"event_id":3984,"slug":"3984-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO arrival delays worsen: 75% late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 arrivals that landed between 10:50 AM and 11:50 AM PST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 54% → 75%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:50:34.190535Z","time":"11:50 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:50 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:50 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:50:00Z","time":"11:50 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:50 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:50 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:50:33.793694Z","time":"11:50 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:50 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxOTo1MDozNC4xOTA1MzUrMDA6MDB8OTEwNQ","measurement":{"window":"10:50 AM–11:50 AM PST","n":20,"late_n":15,"share_pct":"75%","baseline_pct":"31%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":43.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9105,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9099,"event_id":3999,"slug":"3999-sfo-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"SFO: 9 of 23 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 52 departures scheduled from SFO (SFO) between 11:34 AM and 1:04 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 23. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SFO is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 3 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:34:17.006670Z","time":"11:34 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:34 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:34 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:34:00Z","time":"11:34 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:34 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:34 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:34:15.669717Z","time":"11:34 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:34 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:34 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxOTozNDoxNy4wMDY2NzArMDA6MDB8OTA5OQ","measure":{"chips":[["Next","11:34 AM–1:04 PM PST"],["Tight turns","9 of 23"],["Share","39%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","11:34 AM–1:04 PM PST · 52 departures, aircraft known for 23"],["Tight turns","9 (39%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","3 not taken off · 6 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","DL 2272 to LAX at 11:40 AM: aircraft N3771K, inbound DL 2272 from LAX (not departed), -114 min to turn"],["Tightest","UA 8167 to STL at 12:22 PM: aircraft N467UA, inbound UA 432 from ONT (not departed), -20 min to turn"],["Tightest","DL 693 to ATL at 11:38 AM: aircraft N557DN, inbound DL 693 from ATL (airborne), -16 min to turn"],["Tightest","OO 4790 to SMF at 12:46 PM: aircraft N936EV, inbound OO 5737 from FAT (not departed), -10 min to turn"],["Tightest","DL 1980 to MSP at 12:07 PM: aircraft N928DU, inbound DL 2078 from MSP (airborne), -5 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9099,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9073,"event_id":3727,"slug":"3727-sfo-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 66%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 125 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"74% → 66% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:34.208825Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:33.042090Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODo1NzozNC4yMDg4MjUrMDA6MDB8OTA3Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"66%","expected_cancellations":5.6,"target":"SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":125,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9073,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9060,"event_id":3984,"slug":"3984-sfo-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 arrivals that landed between 9:16 AM and 10:16 AM PST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:16:45.031542Z","time":"10:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:16 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:16:00Z","time":"10:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:16 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:16:44.745756Z","time":"10:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:16 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODoxNjo0NS4wMzE1NDIrMDA6MDB8OTA2MA","measurement":{"window":"9:16 AM–10:16 AM PST","n":24,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"54%","baseline_pct":"31%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":28.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9105,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9105,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Major","headline":"SFO arrival delays worsen: 75% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:50:34.190535Z","time":"11:50 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:50 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:50 UTC"}}},{"id":9058,"event_id":3983,"slug":"3983-sfo-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departures running late: 56% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 27 departures that took off between 9:08 AM and 10:08 AM PST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:08:35.406855Z","time":"10:08 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:08 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:08 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:08:00Z","time":"10:08 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:08 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:08 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:08:34.924776Z","time":"10:08 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:08 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:08 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODowODozNS40MDY4NTUrMDA6MDB8OTA1OA","measurement":{"window":"9:08 AM–10:08 AM PST","n":27,"late_n":15,"share_pct":"56%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":16.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9109,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9109,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Major","headline":"SFO departure delays worsen: 73% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:06:53.594808Z","time":"12:06 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:06 UTC"}}},{"id":9036,"event_id":3862,"slug":"3862-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 59%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 59% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:15.544608Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:14.641613Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzo1NjoxNS41NDQ2MDgrMDA6MDB8OTAzNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":2.3,"target":"SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":85,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9036,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9023,"event_id":3858,"slug":"3858-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 28 departures that took off between 8:13 AM and 9:13 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 20% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 76% at worst → 0% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:13:12.188471Z","time":"9:13 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:13 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:13 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:13:00Z","time":"9:13 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:13 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:13 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:13:11.882280Z","time":"9:13 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:13 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:13 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzoxMzoxMi4xODg0NzErMDA6MDB8OTAyMw","measurement":{"window":"8:13 AM–9:13 AM PST","n":28,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"10%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9023,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8961,"event_id":3862,"slug":"3862-sfo-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"56% → 55% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:39.761099Z","time":"7:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:38.542413Z","time":"7:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTo1NzozOS43NjEwOTkrMDA6MDB8ODk2MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":13.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":85,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9036,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9036,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 59%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:15.544608Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8932,"event_id":3858,"slug":"3858-sfo-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departure delays ease: 18% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 17 departures that took off between 5:40 AM and 6:40 AM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 65% → 18%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:40:10.593612Z","time":"6:40 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:40 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:40 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:40:00Z","time":"6:40 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:40 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:40:10.239897Z","time":"6:40 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:40 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:40 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNDo0MDoxMC41OTM2MTIrMDA6MDB8ODkzMg","measurement":{"window":"5:40 AM–6:40 AM PST","n":17,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"18%","baseline_pct":"6%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9023,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9023,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"SFO departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:13:12.188471Z","time":"9:13 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:13 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:13 UTC"}}},{"id":8910,"event_id":3728,"slug":"3728-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 7 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 121 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:25:52.537290Z","time":"6:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:25:51.497571Z","time":"6:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNDoyNTo1Mi41MzcyOTArMDA6MDB8ODkxMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.7,"target":"SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":121,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8910,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8909,"event_id":3674,"slug":"3674-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 5 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 5 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:25:52.529288Z","time":"6:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:25:51.497571Z","time":"6:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNDoyNTo1Mi41MjkyODgrMDA6MDB8ODkwOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.7,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":107,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8909,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8877,"event_id":3778,"slug":"3778-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 5 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.209369Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:44.385825Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4yMDkzNjkrMDA6MDB8ODg3Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.5,"target":"SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":94,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8877,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8876,"event_id":3673,"slug":"3673-sfo-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday at 52%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"56% → 52% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.203348Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:44.385825Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4yMDMzNDgrMDA6MDB8ODg3Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"52%","expected_cancellations":6.1,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":107,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8876,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8853,"event_id":3778,"slug":"3778-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 9 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 9 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:03.269113Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:02.842857Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMTo1NzowMy4yNjkxMTMrMDA6MDB8ODg1Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.1,"target":"SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":11.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":94,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8877,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8877,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.209369Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"}}},{"id":8810,"event_id":3868,"slug":"3868-sfo-taxi-in","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 13+ min","body":"Of 15 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 11:40 PM and 12:40 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 1 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 2.3 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 13% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.","what_changed":"slow share 35% at worst → 7% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:51.187392Z","time":"12:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:40:00Z","time":"12:40 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:40 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"12:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MS4xODczOTIrMDA6MDB8ODgxMA","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","11:40 PM–12:40 AM PST"],["Sample","15 arrivals"],["Slow","7%"],["Usually","5%"]],"rows":[["Landings","11:40 PM–12:40 AM PST · 15 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","1 (7%) took 13+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","5% usually · typical taxi-in 3.1 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","2.3 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8810,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8774,"event_id":3858,"slug":"3858-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departure delays worsen: 65% late in the last hour","body":"Of 31 departures that took off between 11:25 PM and 12:25 AM PST, 20 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 56% → 65%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:25:23.479419Z","time":"12:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:25:00Z","time":"12:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:25:23.219035Z","time":"12:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNToyMy40Nzk0MTkrMDA6MDB8ODc3NA","measurement":{"window":"11:25 PM–12:25 AM PST","n":31,"late_n":20,"share_pct":"65%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":19.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9023,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9023,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"SFO departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:13:12.188471Z","time":"9:13 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:13 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:13 UTC"}}},{"id":8771,"event_id":3868,"slug":"3868-sfo-taxi-in","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"SFO arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 35% took 13+ min after landing","body":"Of 20 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM PST and have reached the ramp, 7 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 10 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:48:50.735317Z","time":"11:48 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:48 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:48 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:33:00Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:48:49.877549Z","time":"11:48 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:48 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:48 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNzo0ODo1MC43MzUzMTcrMDA6MDB8ODc3MQ","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","10:33 PM–11:33 PM PST"],["Sample","20 arrivals"],["Slow","35%"],["Usually","5%"]],"rows":[["Landings","10:33 PM–11:33 PM PST · 20 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","7 (35%) took 13+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","5% usually · typical taxi-in 3.1 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","10.0 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8810,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8810,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 13+ min","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:51.187392Z","time":"12:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"}}},{"id":8755,"event_id":3862,"slug":"3862-sfo-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 56% delay risk for SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:56:06.255454Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:56:05.027995Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjo1NjowNi4yNTU0NTQrMDA6MDB8ODc1NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":2.2,"target":"SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":22.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":80,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9036,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9036,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 59%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:15.544608Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8750,"event_id":3858,"slug":"3858-sfo-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departures running late: 56% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 25 departures that took off between 9:27 PM and 10:27 PM PST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:27:37.286012Z","time":"10:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:27:00Z","time":"10:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:27 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:27:37.152972Z","time":"10:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjoyNzozNy4yODYwMTIrMDA6MDB8ODc1MA","measurement":{"window":"9:27 PM–10:27 PM PST","n":25,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"56%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9023,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9023,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"SFO departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:13:12.188471Z","time":"9:13 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:13 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:13 UTC"}}},{"id":8730,"event_id":3842,"slug":"3842-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departures back near normal: 22% late in the last hour","body":"Of 23 departures that took off between 8:48 PM and 9:48 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 83% at worst → 22% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:48.802286Z","time":"9:48 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:48 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:00Z","time":"9:48 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:48 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:48.562112Z","time":"9:48 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:48 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTo0ODo0OC44MDIyODYrMDA6MDB8ODczMA","measurement":{"window":"8:48 PM–9:48 PM PST","n":23,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"22%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":3.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8730,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTo0ODo0OC44MDIyODYrMDA6MDB8ODczMA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-major\" data-id=\"9199\" data-event=\"4051\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ\" data-sev=\"major\" data-life=\"new\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9199\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST · 2026-11-13 20:59 UTC\">15:59</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-confirmed\" title=\"Confirmed: An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">C</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Confirmed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major wt-sev\" title=\"Major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Major</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals and departures\">A+D</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Ground stop\">GND STOP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">NEW</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-9199\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4051-ground-stop#u-9199\" title=\"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”\">FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\"></span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-9199\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"9199\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: <a href=\"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&amp;advn=111\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗</a></span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4051-ground-stop#u-9199\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4051\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4051-ground-stop\">Copy link</button>\n      \n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"9196\" data-event=\"4048\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"new\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9196\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST · 2026-11-13 20:56 UTC\">15:56</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-confirmed\" title=\"Confirmed: An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">C</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Confirmed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals and departures\">A+D</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Traffic restriction\">RESTRICT</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">NEW</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-9196\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4048-restriction#u-9196\" title=\"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”\">FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\"></span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-9196\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"9196\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: <a href=\"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&amp;advn=108\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗</a></span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4048-restriction#u-9196\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4048\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4048-restriction\">Copy link</button>\n      \n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"9153\" data-event=\"4027\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NDoxMy42MzkxMDUrMDA6MDB8OTE1Mw\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"new\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9153\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T20:54:13.639105Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 12:54 PM PST · 2026-11-13 20:54 UTC\">15:54</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-confirmed\" title=\"Confirmed: An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">C</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Confirmed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals and departures\">A+D</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Weather\">WEATHER</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">NEW</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-9153\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4027-sfo-weather#u-9153\" title=\"Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at SFO\">Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at SFO</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">Observed 12:38 PM PST</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-9153\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"9153\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">The 12:38 PM PST official weather observation (METAR) for SFO (SFO) reports heavy rain; mist, ceiling 2400 ft, visibility 2.5 mi, wind 7 kt. Coded weather: “+RA BR”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: <a href=\"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSFO&amp;format=raw&amp;hours=3\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗</a></span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4027-sfo-weather#u-9153\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4027\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4027-sfo-weather\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-major\" data-id=\"9149\" data-event=\"2668\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NDoxMi4xNDk3NzErMDA6MDB8OTE0OQ\" data-sev=\"major\" data-life=\"developing\" data-n=\"3\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9149\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T20:54:12.149771Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 12:54 PM PST · 2026-11-13 20:54 UTC\">15:54</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-confirmed\" title=\"Confirmed: An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">C</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Confirmed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major wt-sev\" title=\"Major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Major</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Traffic restriction\">RESTRICT</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">DEVELOPING</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-9149\"><a href=\"/wire/events/2668-sfo-restriction#u-9149\" title=\"FAA now lists SFO ground delay program until 11:59 PM PST\">FAA now lists SFO ground delay program until 11:59 PM PST</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"end 11:59 PM PST → 11:59 PM PST\">▲ end 11:59 PM PST → 11:59 PM PST</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-9149\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"9149\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to SFO (SFO), citing “wind”; it gives an average delay of 138 min and a maximum of 690 min. Departures to SFO are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">3 updates · Source: <a href=\"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗</a></span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/2668-sfo-restriction#u-9149\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"2668\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/2668-sfo-restriction\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-major\" data-id=\"9109\" data-event=\"3983\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDowNjo1My41OTQ4MDgrMDA6MDB8OTEwOQ\" data-sev=\"major\" data-life=\"developing\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9109\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T20:06:53.594808Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 PM PST · 2026-11-13 20:06 UTC\">15:06</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major wt-sev\" title=\"Major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Major</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">DEVELOPING</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-9109\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3983-sfo-delays#u-9109\" title=\"SFO departure delays worsen: 73% late in the last hour\">SFO departure delays worsen: 73% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 56% → 73%\">▲ late share 56% → 73%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-9109\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"9109\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 22 departures that took off between 11:06 AM and 12:06 PM PST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3983-sfo-delays#u-9109\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3983\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3983-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-major\" data-id=\"9105\" data-event=\"3984\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxOTo1MDozNC4xOTA1MzUrMDA6MDB8OTEwNQ\" data-sev=\"major\" data-life=\"developing\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9105\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T19:50:34.190535Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 11:50 AM PST · 2026-11-13 19:50 UTC\">14:50</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major wt-sev\" title=\"Major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Major</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">DEVELOPING</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-9105\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3984-sfo-delays#u-9105\" title=\"SFO arrival delays worsen: 75% late in the last hour\">SFO arrival delays worsen: 75% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 54% → 75%\">▲ late share 54% → 75%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-9105\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"9105\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 20 arrivals that landed between 10:50 AM and 11:50 AM PST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3984-sfo-delays#u-9105\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3984\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3984-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"9099\" data-event=\"3999\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxOTozNDoxNy4wMDY2NzArMDA6MDB8OTA5OQ\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"new\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9099\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T19:34:17.006670Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 11:34 AM PST · 2026-11-13 19:34 UTC\">14:34</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Inbound aircraft\">INBOUND</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">NEW</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-9099\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3999-sfo-aircraft-turns#u-9099\" title=\"SFO: 9 of 23 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn\">SFO: 9 of 23 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">Tight turns 9 of 23</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-9099\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"9099\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of the 52 departures scheduled from SFO (SFO) between 11:34 AM and 1:04 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 23. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SFO is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 3 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3999-sfo-aircraft-turns#u-9099\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3999\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3999-sfo-aircraft-turns\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"9073\" data-event=\"3727\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODo1NzozNC4yMDg4MjUrMDA6MDB8OTA3Mw\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9073\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T18:57:34.208825Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST · 2026-11-13 18:57 UTC\">13:57</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-9073\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3727-sfo-delays#u-9073\" title=\"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 66%\">Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 66%</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"74% → 66% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)\">▼ 74% → 66% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-9073\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"9073\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 125 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3727-sfo-delays#u-9073\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3727\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3727-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"9060\" data-event=\"3984\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODoxNjo0NS4wMzE1NDIrMDA6MDB8OTA2MA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"developing\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9060\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T18:16:45.031542Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 10:16 AM PST · 2026-11-13 18:16 UTC\">13:16</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">DEVELOPING</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-9060\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3984-sfo-delays#u-9060\" title=\"SFO arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour\">SFO arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">54% late</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-9060\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"9060\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 24 arrivals that landed between 9:16 AM and 10:16 AM PST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3984-sfo-delays#u-9060\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3984\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3984-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"9058\" data-event=\"3983\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODowODozNS40MDY4NTUrMDA6MDB8OTA1OA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"developing\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9058\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T18:08:35.406855Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 10:08 AM PST · 2026-11-13 18:08 UTC\">13:08</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">DEVELOPING</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-9058\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3983-sfo-delays#u-9058\" title=\"SFO departures running late: 56% left 15+ min late in the last hour\">SFO departures running late: 56% left 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">56% late</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-9058\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"9058\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 27 departures that took off between 9:08 AM and 10:08 AM PST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3983-sfo-delays#u-9058\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3983\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3983-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-major\" data-id=\"9036\" data-event=\"3862\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzo1NjoxNS41NDQ2MDgrMDA6MDB8OTAzNg\" data-sev=\"major\" data-life=\"developing\" data-n=\"3\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9036\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T17:56:15.544608Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 9:56 AM PST · 2026-11-13 17:56 UTC\">12:56</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major wt-sev\" title=\"Major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Major</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">DEVELOPING</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-9036\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3862-sfo-delays#u-9036\" title=\"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 59%\">Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 59%</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"55% → 59% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)\">▲ 55% → 59% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-9036\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"9036\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">3 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3862-sfo-delays#u-9036\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3862\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3862-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"9023\" data-event=\"3858\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzoxMzoxMi4xODg0NzErMDA6MDB8OTAyMw\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"4\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-9023\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T17:13:12.188471Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 9:13 AM PST · 2026-11-13 17:13 UTC\">12:13</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-9023\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3858-sfo-delays#u-9023\" title=\"SFO departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour\">SFO departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 76% at worst → 0% now\">late share 76% at worst → 0% now</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-9023\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"9023\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 28 departures that took off between 8:13 AM and 9:13 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 20% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3858-sfo-delays#u-9023\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3858\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3858-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8961\" data-event=\"3862\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTo1NzozOS43NjEwOTkrMDA6MDB8ODk2MQ\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"developing\" data-n=\"3\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8961\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T15:57:39.761099Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 7:57 AM PST · 2026-11-13 15:57 UTC\">10:57</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">DEVELOPING</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8961\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3862-sfo-delays#u-8961\" title=\"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 55%\">Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 55%</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"56% → 55% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)\">▼ 56% → 55% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8961\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8961\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">3 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3862-sfo-delays#u-8961\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3862\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3862-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8932\" data-event=\"3858\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNDo0MDoxMC41OTM2MTIrMDA6MDB8ODkzMg\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"4\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8932\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T14:40:10.593612Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 6:40 AM PST · 2026-11-13 14:40 UTC\">09:40</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8932\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3858-sfo-delays#u-8932\" title=\"SFO departure delays ease: 18% late in the last hour, still above normal\">SFO departure delays ease: 18% late in the last hour, still above normal</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 65% → 18%\">▼ late share 65% → 18%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8932\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8932\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 17 departures that took off between 5:40 AM and 6:40 AM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3858-sfo-delays#u-8932\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3858\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3858-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8910\" data-event=\"3728\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNDoyNTo1Mi41MzcyOTArMDA6MDB8ODkxMA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8910\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T14:25:52.537290Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 6:25 AM PST · 2026-11-13 14:25 UTC\">09:25</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Cancellation\">CANCEL</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8910\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3728-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-8910\" title=\"Updated model now expects about 7 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Friday\">Updated model now expects about 7 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast\">▼ about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8910\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8910\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 121 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3728-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-8910\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3728\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3728-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8909\" data-event=\"3674\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNDoyNTo1Mi41MjkyODgrMDA6MDB8ODkwOQ\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8909\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T14:25:52.529288Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 6:25 AM PST · 2026-11-13 14:25 UTC\">09:25</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Cancellation\">CANCEL</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8909\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3674-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-8909\" title=\"Updated model now expects about 5 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Friday\">Updated model now expects about 5 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Friday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"about 8 → 5 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM PST forecast\">▼ about 8 → 5 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM PST forecast</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8909\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8909\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3674-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-8909\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3674\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3674-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8877\" data-event=\"3778\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4yMDkzNjkrMDA6MDB8ODg3Nw\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"developing\" data-n=\"5\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8877\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T13:26:45.209369Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 5:26 AM PST · 2026-11-13 13:26 UTC\">08:26</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Cancellation\">CANCEL</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">DEVELOPING</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8877\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3778-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-8877\" title=\"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"about 9 → 5 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM PST forecast\">▼ about 9 → 5 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM PST forecast</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8877\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8877\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">5 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3778-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-8877\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3778\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3778-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8876\" data-event=\"3673\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4yMDMzNDgrMDA6MDB8ODg3Ng\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"4\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8876\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T13:26:45.203348Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 5:26 AM PST · 2026-11-13 13:26 UTC\">08:26</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8876\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3673-sfo-delays#u-8876\" title=\"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday at 52%\">Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday at 52%</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"56% → 52% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)\">▼ 56% → 52% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8876\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8876\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">4 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3673-sfo-delays#u-8876\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3673\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3673-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8853\" data-event=\"3778\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMTo1NzowMy4yNjkxMTMrMDA6MDB8ODg1Mw\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"developing\" data-n=\"5\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8853\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T11:57:03.269113Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 AM PST · 2026-11-13 11:57 UTC\">06:57</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Cancellation\">CANCEL</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">DEVELOPING</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8853\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3778-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-8853\" title=\"Updated model now expects about 9 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday\">Updated model now expects about 9 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"about 10 → 9 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast\">▼ about 10 → 9 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8853\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8853\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">5 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3778-sfo-cancellation-risk#u-8853\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3778\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3778-sfo-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"8810\" data-event=\"3868\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MS4xODczOTIrMDA6MDB8ODgxMA\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8810\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T08:55:51.187392Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 12:55 AM PST · 2026-11-13 08:55 UTC\">03:55</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Slow taxi-in\">TAXI-IN</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8810\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3868-sfo-taxi-in#u-8810\" title=\"SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 13+ min\">SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 13+ min</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"slow share 35% at worst → 7% now\">slow share 35% at worst → 7% now</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8810\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8810\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 15 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 11:40 PM and 12:40 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 1 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 2.3 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 13% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3868-sfo-taxi-in#u-8810\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3868\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3868-sfo-taxi-in\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-major\" data-id=\"8774\" data-event=\"3858\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNToyMy40Nzk0MTkrMDA6MDB8ODc3NA\" data-sev=\"major\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"4\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8774\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T08:25:23.479419Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 12:25 AM PST · 2026-11-13 08:25 UTC\">03:25</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major wt-sev\" title=\"Major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Major</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8774\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3858-sfo-delays#u-8774\" title=\"SFO departure delays worsen: 65% late in the last hour\">SFO departure delays worsen: 65% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 56% → 65%\">▲ late share 56% → 65%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8774\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8774\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 31 departures that took off between 11:25 PM and 12:25 AM PST, 20 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3858-sfo-delays#u-8774\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3858\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3858-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8771\" data-event=\"3868\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNzo0ODo1MC43MzUzMTcrMDA6MDB8ODc3MQ\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8771\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T07:48:50.735317Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 11:48 PM PST · 2026-11-13 07:48 UTC\">02:48</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Slow taxi-in\">TAXI-IN</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8771\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3868-sfo-taxi-in#u-8771\" title=\"SFO arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 35% took 13+ min after landing\">SFO arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 35% took 13+ min after landing</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">Sample 20 arrivals</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8771\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8771\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 20 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM PST and have reached the ramp, 7 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 10 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3868-sfo-taxi-in#u-8771\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3868\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3868-sfo-taxi-in\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-major\" data-id=\"8755\" data-event=\"3862\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjo1NjowNi4yNTU0NTQrMDA6MDB8ODc1NQ\" data-sev=\"major\" data-life=\"developing\" data-n=\"3\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8755\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T06:56:06.255454Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 PM PST · 2026-11-13 06:56 UTC\">01:56</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major wt-sev\" title=\"Major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Major</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">DEVELOPING</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8755\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3862-sfo-delays#u-8755\" title=\"Model forecasts 56% delay risk for SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday\">Model forecasts 56% delay risk for SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">56% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8755\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8755\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">3 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3862-sfo-delays#u-8755\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3862\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3862-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8750\" data-event=\"3858\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjoyNzozNy4yODYwMTIrMDA6MDB8ODc1MA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"4\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8750\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T06:27:37.286012Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 10:27 PM PST · 2026-11-13 06:27 UTC\">01:27</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8750\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3858-sfo-delays#u-8750\" title=\"SFO departures running late: 56% left 15+ min late in the last hour\">SFO departures running late: 56% left 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">56% late</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8750\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8750\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 25 departures that took off between 9:27 PM and 10:27 PM PST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3858-sfo-delays#u-8750\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3858\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3858-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"8730\" data-event=\"3842\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTo0ODo0OC44MDIyODYrMDA6MDB8ODczMA\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"3\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8730\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T05:48:48.802286Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 9:48 PM PST · 2026-11-13 05:48 UTC\">00:48</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/SFO\">SFO</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8730\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3842-sfo-delays#u-8730\" title=\"SFO departures back near normal: 22% late in the last hour\">SFO departures back near normal: 22% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 83% at worst → 22% now\">late share 83% at worst → 22% now</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8730\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8730\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 23 departures that took off between 8:48 PM and 9:48 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3842-sfo-delays#u-8730\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3842\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3842-sfo-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SFO\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SFO</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>"],"filters":"airport=SFO&mode=all&view=terminal"}