{"items":[{"id":10657,"event_id":4602,"slug":"4602-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among SFO departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 54 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 12 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:35.781183Z","time":"7:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"just now","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"7:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"just now","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNS43ODExODMrMDA6MDB8MTA2NTc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":12.2,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":54,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10657,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10656,"event_id":4321,"slug":"4321-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 37 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 37 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 34 → 37 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:35.778040Z","time":"7:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"just now","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"7:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"just now","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNS43NzgwNDArMDA6MDB8MTA2NTY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":37.0,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":103,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":8,"latest_update_id":10656,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":8,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10568,"event_id":4530,"slug":"4530-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 28 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 77 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 28 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:10.049911Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"59 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:05.975812Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"59 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzoxMC4wNDk5MTErMDA6MDB8MTA1Njg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":27.5,"target":"SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":77,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10568,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10567,"event_id":4367,"slug":"4367-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 35 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 35 of the 110 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (32%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 35 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:10.047118Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"59 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:05.975812Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"59 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzoxMC4wNDcxMTgrMDA6MDB8MTA1Njc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":35.5,"target":"SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10567,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10338,"event_id":4201,"slug":"4201-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 11 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:09.894988Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjowOS44OTQ5ODgrMDA6MDB8MTAzMzg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.8,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":92,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10338,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9713,"event_id":4253,"slug":"4253-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 23 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 10 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.530090Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi41MzAwOTArMDA6MDB8OTcxMw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.8,"target":"SFO departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":23,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9713,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9711,"event_id":4082,"slug":"4082-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 66 among SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 66 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (78%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 58 → 66 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.506033Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi41MDYwMzMrMDA6MDB8OTcxMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":66.4,"target":"SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":85,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":9711,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9527,"event_id":4081,"slug":"4081-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 57 among SFO departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 57 of the 82 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (69%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 36 → 57 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.297522Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4yOTc1MjIrMDA6MDB8OTUyNw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":56.6,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":82,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9527,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9421,"event_id":3778,"slug":"3778-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 54 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 54 of the 100 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (54%). With calm weather it would expect about 6. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 41 → 54 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:57:31.843209Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:57:30.715189Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo1NzozMS44NDMyMDkrMDA6MDB8OTQyMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":53.5,"target":"SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":100,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":9421,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8910,"event_id":3728,"slug":"3728-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 7 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 121 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:25:52.537290Z","time":"6:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:25:51.497571Z","time":"6:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNDoyNTo1Mi41MzcyOTArMDA6MDB8ODkxMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.7,"target":"SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":121,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8910,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8909,"event_id":3674,"slug":"3674-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 5 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 5 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:25:52.529288Z","time":"6:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:25:51.497571Z","time":"6:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNDoyNTo1Mi41MjkyODgrMDA6MDB8ODkwOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.7,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":107,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8909,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNS43ODExODMrMDA6MDB8MTA2NTc","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n just now\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among SFO departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 12 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 54 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n just now\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 37 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 34 → 37 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 37 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~37 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (8)\n 7 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 59 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 28 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 28 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 77 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~28 cancellationsHorizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 59 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 35 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 12 → 35 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 35 of the 110 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (32%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~36 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 11 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 10 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 23 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 66 among SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n

What changed: about 58 → 66 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 66 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (78%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~66 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 57 among SFO departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 36 → 57 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 57 of the 82 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (69%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~57 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 54 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 41 → 54 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 54 of the 100 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (54%). With calm weather it would expect about 6. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~54 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 7 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 121 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 5 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 5 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=SFO"}