{"items":[{"id":10095,"event_id":4320,"slug":"4320-sfo-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 48%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"60% → 48% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.814811Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC44MTQ4MTErMDA6MDB8MTAwOTU","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":8.0,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":102,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10095,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10094,"event_id":4293,"slug":"4293-sfo-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 25%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 AM Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 25%; calm-weather level 15%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.776182Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC43NzYxODIrMDA6MDB8MTAwOTQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"25%","expected_cancellations":7.3,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":92,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10094,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9832,"event_id":4114,"slug":"4114-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday at 57%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from SFO midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 57% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.401017Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS40MDEwMTcrMDA6MDB8OTgzMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":12.3,"target":"SFO departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9832,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9691,"event_id":3984,"slug":"3984-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO arrival delays worsen: 93% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 arrivals that landed between 7:35 PM and 8:35 PM PST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 54% → 93%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:35:07.039639Z","time":"8:35 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:35 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:35 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:35:00Z","time":"8:35 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:35 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:35 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:35:06.454377Z","time":"8:35 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:35 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:35 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDozNTowNy4wMzk2MzkrMDA6MDB8OTY5MQ","measurement":{"window":"7:35 PM–8:35 PM PST","n":15,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"93%","baseline_pct":"31%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":278.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":9691,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9633,"event_id":4241,"slug":"4241-sfo-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 6:52 PM and 7:52 PM PST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:52:09.362524Z","time":"7:52 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:52 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:52 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:52:00Z","time":"7:52 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:52 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:52 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:52:09.233464Z","time":"7:52 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:52 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1MjowOS4zNjI1MjQrMDA6MDB8OTYzMw","measurement":{"window":"6:52 PM–7:52 PM PST","n":13,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"25%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":211.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9633,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9577,"event_id":4200,"slug":"4200-sfo-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.512475Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy41MTI0NzUrMDA6MDB8OTU3Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":17.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":108,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9577,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9268,"event_id":3862,"slug":"3862-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 92%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 92% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"59% → 92% since the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.965277Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS45NjUyNzcrMDA6MDB8OTI2OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"92%","expected_cancellations":17.8,"target":"SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":85,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9268,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9267,"event_id":3831,"slug":"3831-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 95%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 83 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Friday an average 95% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 58%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"67% → 95% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.962438Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS45NjI0MzgrMDA6MDB8OTI2Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"95%","expected_cancellations":23.6,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":83,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9267,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9266,"event_id":3777,"slug":"3777-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 97%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Friday an average 97% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 68%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"74% → 97% since the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.959177Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS45NTkxNzcrMDA6MDB8OTI2Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"97%","expected_cancellations":41.3,"target":"SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9266,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9109,"event_id":3983,"slug":"3983-sfo-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departure delays worsen: 73% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 departures that took off between 11:06 AM and 12:06 PM PST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 56% → 73%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:06:53.594808Z","time":"12:06 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:06:00Z","time":"12:06 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:06:52.946686Z","time":"12:06 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDowNjo1My41OTQ4MDgrMDA6MDB8OTEwOQ","measurement":{"window":"11:06 AM–12:06 PM PST","n":22,"late_n":16,"share_pct":"73%","baseline_pct":"28%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":30.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9109,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9073,"event_id":3727,"slug":"3727-sfo-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 66%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 125 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"74% → 66% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:34.208825Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:33.042090Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODo1NzozNC4yMDg4MjUrMDA6MDB8OTA3Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"66%","expected_cancellations":5.6,"target":"SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":125,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9073,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9023,"event_id":3858,"slug":"3858-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 28 departures that took off between 8:13 AM and 9:13 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 20% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 76% at worst → 0% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:13:12.188471Z","time":"9:13 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:13 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:13 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:13:00Z","time":"9:13 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:13 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:13 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:13:11.882280Z","time":"9:13 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:13 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:13 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzoxMzoxMi4xODg0NzErMDA6MDB8OTAyMw","measurement":{"window":"8:13 AM–9:13 AM PST","n":28,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"10%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9023,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8876,"event_id":3673,"slug":"3673-sfo-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday at 52%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"56% → 52% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.203348Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:44.385825Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4yMDMzNDgrMDA6MDB8ODg3Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"52%","expected_cancellations":6.1,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":107,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8876,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8730,"event_id":3842,"slug":"3842-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departures back near normal: 22% late in the last hour","body":"Of 23 departures that took off between 8:48 PM and 9:48 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 83% at worst → 22% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:48.802286Z","time":"9:48 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:48 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:00Z","time":"9:48 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:48 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:48.562112Z","time":"9:48 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:48 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTo0ODo0OC44MDIyODYrMDA6MDB8ODczMA","measurement":{"window":"8:48 PM–9:48 PM PST","n":23,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"22%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":3.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8730,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8659,"event_id":3624,"slug":"3624-sfo-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model now puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 40%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 45%; calm-weather level 40%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.274061Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni4yNzQwNjErMDA6MDB8ODY1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":1.3,"target":"SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":85,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8659,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8648,"event_id":3747,"slug":"3747-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour","body":"Of 25 departures that took off between 6:28 PM and 7:28 PM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 100% at worst → 12% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:28:16.195637Z","time":"7:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:28:00Z","time":"7:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:28 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:28:15.929519Z","time":"7:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzoyODoxNi4xOTU2MzcrMDA6MDB8ODY0OA","measurement":{"window":"6:28 PM–7:28 PM PST","n":25,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"12%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":8648,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8549,"event_id":3741,"slug":"3741-sfo-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 46%; calm-weather level 39%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.601664Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy42MDE2NjQrMDA6MDB8ODU0OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":80,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8549,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8445,"event_id":3648,"slug":"3648-sfo-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 37%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 37%; calm-weather level 34%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.618821Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi42MTg4MjErMDA6MDB8ODQ0NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"37%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":80,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8445,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8444,"event_id":3614,"slug":"3614-sfo-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 37%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Thursday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 37%; calm-weather level 41%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.611556Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi42MTE1NTYrMDA6MDB8ODQ0NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"37%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":91,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8444,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8354,"event_id":3591,"slug":"3591-sfo-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 41%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 124 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 41%; calm-weather level 41%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:45.425383Z","time":"10:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:44.534616Z","time":"10:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1NTo0NS40MjUzODMrMDA6MDB8ODM1NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":1.4,"target":"SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":124,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8354,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8183,"event_id":3574,"slug":"3574-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departures back near normal: 22% late in the last hour","body":"Of 45 departures that took off between 1:55 PM and 2:55 PM PST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 61% at worst → 22% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T22:55:10.811955Z","time":"2:55 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:55 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 22:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T22:55:00Z","time":"2:55 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:55 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 22:55 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T22:55:10.370034Z","time":"2:55 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:55 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQyMjo1NToxMC44MTE5NTUrMDA6MDB8ODE4Mw","measurement":{"window":"1:55 PM–2:55 PM PST","n":45,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"22%","baseline_pct":"32%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8183,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8171,"event_id":3568,"slug":"3568-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO arrivals back near normal: 16% late in the last hour","body":"Of 25 arrivals that landed between 12:53 PM and 1:53 PM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 68% at worst → 16% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:53:54.041879Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 1:53 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:53 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:53:00Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 1:53 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:53:53.405627Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 1:53 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:53 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQyMTo1Mzo1NC4wNDE4NzkrMDA6MDB8ODE3MQ","measurement":{"window":"12:53 PM–1:53 PM PST","n":25,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"16%","baseline_pct":"31%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8171,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8090,"event_id":3472,"slug":"3472-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 6:04 AM and 7:04 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 95% at worst → 7% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:04:19.240048Z","time":"7:04 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:04 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:04 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:04:00Z","time":"7:04 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:04 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:04 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:04:18.702251Z","time":"7:04 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:04 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:04 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxNTowNDoxOS4yNDAwNDgrMDA6MDB8ODA5MA","measurement":{"window":"6:04 AM–7:04 AM PST","n":15,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"7%","baseline_pct":"6%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":8,"latest_update_id":8090,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":8,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8064,"event_id":3468,"slug":"3468-sfo-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"SFO arrivals back near normal: 25% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 arrivals that landed between 11:01 PM and 12:01 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 84% at worst → 25% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T08:01:30.646745Z","time":"12:01 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:01 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 08:01 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T08:01:00Z","time":"12:01 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:01 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 08:01 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T08:01:30.346980Z","time":"12:01 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:01 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 08:01 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwODowMTozMC42NDY3NDUrMDA6MDB8ODA2NA","measurement":{"window":"11:01 PM–12:01 AM PST","n":24,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"25%","baseline_pct":"31%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8064,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8037,"event_id":3476,"slug":"3476-sfo-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 41%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 41%; calm-weather level 36%","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:56:54.256995Z","time":"8:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:56:52.242121Z","time":"8:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNDo1Njo1NC4yNTY5OTUrMDA6MDB8ODAzNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":1.8,"target":"SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":84,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8037,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNDo1Njo1NC4yNTY5OTUrMDA6MDB8ODAzNw","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC44MTQ4MTErMDA6MDB8MTAwOTU","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 30 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 48%

\n

What changed: 60% → 48% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 30 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 25%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 25%, near normal

\n

What changed: 42% → 25%; calm-weather level 15%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 AM Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 25%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday at 57%

\n

What changed: 44% → 57% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from SFO midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 57%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SFO\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

SFO arrival delays worsen: 93% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 54% → 93%

\n \n

Of 15 arrivals that landed between 7:35 PM and 8:35 PM PST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:35 PM–8:35 PM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 93%Typical 31%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

SFO departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 6:52 PM and 7:52 PM PST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:52 PM–7:52 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 100%Typical 25%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 45%Horizon 17.0 hModel famA-fc-v3

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 92%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 92%

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What changed: 59% → 92% since the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 92% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 92%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 95%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 95%

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What changed: 67% → 95% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 83 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Friday an average 95% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 58%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 95%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 97%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 97%

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What changed: 74% → 97% since the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Friday an average 97% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 68%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 97%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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SFO departure delays worsen: 73% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 56% → 73%

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Of 22 departures that took off between 11:06 AM and 12:06 PM PST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 11:06 AM–12:06 PM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 73%Typical 28%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 16 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 66%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 66%

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What changed: 74% → 66% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 125 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 66%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 18 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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SFO departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 76% at worst → 0% now

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Of 28 departures that took off between 8:13 AM and 9:13 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 20% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 8:13 AM–9:13 AM PSTSample 28 flightsLate 0%Typical 10%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 22 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 52%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday at 52%

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What changed: 56% → 52% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 52%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 29 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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SFO departures back near normal: 22% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 83% at worst → 22% now

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Of 23 departures that took off between 8:48 PM and 9:48 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 8:48 PM–9:48 PM PSTSample 23 flightsLate 22%Typical 27%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 31 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 45%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model now puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 40%

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What changed: 45% → 45%; calm-weather level 40%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 45%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 31 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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SFO departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 100% at worst → 12% now

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Of 25 departures that took off between 6:28 PM and 7:28 PM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 6:28 PM–7:28 PM PSTSample 25 flightsLate 12%Typical 24%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 33 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 46%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 46%, near normal

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What changed: 50% → 46%; calm-weather level 39%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 46%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 37 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 37%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 37%, near normal

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What changed: 44% → 37%; calm-weather level 34%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 37%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 37 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 37%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 37%, near normal

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What changed: 44% → 37%; calm-weather level 41%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Thursday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 37%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 40 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 41%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 41%, near normal

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What changed: 44% → 41%; calm-weather level 41%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 124 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 41%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 11\n 2 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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SFO departures back near normal: 22% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 61% at worst → 22% now

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Of 45 departures that took off between 1:55 PM and 2:55 PM PST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 1:55 PM–2:55 PM PSTSample 45 flightsLate 22%Typical 32%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 11\n 2 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SFO\n arrivals\n \n \n
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SFO arrivals back near normal: 16% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 68% at worst → 16% now

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Of 25 arrivals that landed between 12:53 PM and 1:53 PM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 12:53 PM–1:53 PM PSTSample 25 flightsLate 16%Typical 31%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 10\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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SFO departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 95% at worst → 7% now

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Of 15 departures that took off between 6:04 AM and 7:04 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 6:04 AM–7:04 AM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 7%Typical 6%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (8)\n 7 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 10\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SFO\n arrivals\n \n \n
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SFO arrivals back near normal: 25% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 84% at worst → 25% now

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Of 24 arrivals that landed between 11:01 PM and 12:01 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 11:01 PM–12:01 AM PSTSample 24 flightsLate 25%Typical 31%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 41%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 41%, near normal

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What changed: 45% → 41%; calm-weather level 36%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 41%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
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