{"items":[{"id":8799,"event_id":3880,"slug":"3880-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 51% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). 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San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-29T20:56:57.408542Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 29","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 29, 1:56 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-29 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-29T20:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 29","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 29, 1:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-29 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-29T20:56:55.286115Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 29","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 29, 1:56 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-29 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yOVQyMDo1Njo1Ny40MDg1NDIrMDA6MDB8MzgzMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"SJC departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-29 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":23,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-29T20:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 29","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 29, 1:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-29 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":3833,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3344,"event_id":1487,"slug":"1487-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Jose departures running late: 57% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 2:15 PM and 3:15 PM PDT, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-26T22:15:41.689799Z","time":"3:15 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 3:15 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 22:15 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-26T22:15:00Z","time":"3:15 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 3:15 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 22:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-26T22:15:40.194414Z","time":"3:15 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 3:15 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 22:15 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yNlQyMjoxNTo0MS42ODk3OTkrMDA6MDB8MzM0NA","measurement":{"window":"2:15 PM–3:15 PM PDT","n":14,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"57%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":18.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":3344,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3340,"event_id":1486,"slug":"1486-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 41% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-26T21:57:13.590586Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 2:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 21:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-26T21:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 2:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-26T21:57:12.185529Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 2:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 21:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yNlQyMTo1NzoxMy41OTA1ODYrMDA6MDB8MzM0MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"SJC departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-26T21:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 2:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":3340,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3310,"event_id":1474,"slug":"1474-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-26T20:26:51.935392Z","time":"1:26 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 1:26 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-26T19:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 12:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-26T20:26:48.518005Z","time":"1:26 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 1:26 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yNlQyMDoyNjo1MS45MzUzOTIrMDA6MDB8MzMxMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"SJC departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-26T19:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"17 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 12:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":3310,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2549,"event_id":1132,"slug":"1132-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Jose departures running late: 53% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 12:58 PM and 1:58 PM PDT, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-23T20:58:56.357540Z","time":"1:58 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:58 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 20:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-23T20:58:00Z","time":"1:58 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:58 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 20:58 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-23T20:58:54.870542Z","time":"1:58 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:58 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 20:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QyMDo1ODo1Ni4zNTc1NDArMDA6MDB8MjU0OQ","measurement":{"window":"12:58 PM–1:58 PM PDT","n":15,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"53%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":2549,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2530,"event_id":1078,"slug":"1078-sjc-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises San Jose departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 57%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"46% → 57% since the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-23T20:26:12.219608Z","time":"1:26 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:26 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-23T19:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 12:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-23T20:26:08.803082Z","time":"1:26 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:26 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QyMDoyNjoxMi4yMTk2MDgrMDA6MDB8MjUzMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"SJC departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-23T19:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 12:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":2530,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2529,"event_id":1062,"slug":"1062-sjc-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises San Jose departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 58%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 58% since the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-23T20:26:12.215023Z","time":"1:26 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:26 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-23T19:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 12:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-23T20:26:08.803082Z","time":"1:26 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 1:26 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QyMDoyNjoxMi4yMTUwMjMrMDA6MDB8MjUyOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"58%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SJC departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":25,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-23T19:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 12:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":2529,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QyMDoyNjoxMi4yMTUwMjMrMDA6MDB8MjUyOQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yNjMxOTIrMDA6MDB8ODc5OQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"8799\" data-event=\"3880\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yNjMxOTIrMDA6MDB8ODc5OQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8799\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-13T08:27:25.263192Z\" title=\"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC · Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST\">12:27 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 13</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-13T08:27:25.263192Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 43%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">New</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8799\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3880-sjc-delays#u-8799\">Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>43%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>11.5 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3880-sjc-delays#u-8799\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3880\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3880-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"8752\" data-event=\"3859\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjo1MjowMS41NTg2ODUrMDA6MDB8ODc1Mg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8752\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-13T06:52:01.558685Z\" title=\"2026-11-13 06:52 UTC · Thu Nov 12, 10:52 PM PST\">10:52 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 12</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-13T06:52:01.558685Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">New</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8752\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3859-sjc-delays#u-8752\">San Jose arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:52 PM and 10:52 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at San Jose arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>9:52 PM–10:52 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>13 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>54%</b></span><span>Typical <b>19%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3859-sjc-delays#u-8752\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3859\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3859-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"8676\" data-event=\"3838\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni41MzY3NDgrMDA6MDB8ODY3Ng\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8676\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-13T03:56:46.536748Z\" title=\"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC · Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST\">7:56 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 12</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-13T03:56:46.536748Z\">6 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 51%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">New</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8676\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3838-sjc-delays#u-8676\">Model forecasts 51% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>51%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>22.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3838-sjc-delays#u-8676\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3838\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3838-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"8572\" data-event=\"3792\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy44MjU4OTArMDA6MDB8ODU3Mg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8572\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-13T01:27:37.825890Z\" title=\"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC · Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST\">5:27 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 12</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-13T01:27:37.825890Z\">8 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 46%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">New</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8572\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3792-sjc-delays#u-8572\">Model forecasts 46% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>46%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>21.5 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3792-sjc-delays#u-8572\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3792\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3792-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"8441\" data-event=\"3715\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTozOTo1My4xODY1MTUrMDA6MDB8ODQ0MQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8441\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-12T21:39:53.186515Z\" title=\"2026-11-12 21:39 UTC · Thu Nov 12, 1:39 PM PST\">1:39 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 12</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-12T21:39:53.186515Z\">12 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8441\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3715-sjc-delays#u-8441\">San Jose departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 12 departures that took off between 12:39 PM and 1:39 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>12:39 PM–1:39 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>12 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>50%</b></span><span>Typical <b>21%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3715-sjc-delays#u-8441\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3715\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3715-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"8438\" data-event=\"3714\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMToyMzoyNS43NjI1MzMrMDA6MDB8ODQzOA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8438\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-12T21:23:25.762533Z\" title=\"2026-11-12 21:23 UTC · Thu Nov 12, 1:23 PM PST\">1:23 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 12</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-12T21:23:25.762533Z\">12 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 50%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8438\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3714-sjc-delays#u-8438\">Model forecasts 50% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Thursday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>50%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>4.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3714-sjc-delays#u-8438\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3714\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3714-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"8437\" data-event=\"3713\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMToyMzoyNS43NTg5NjIrMDA6MDB8ODQzNw\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8437\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-12T21:23:25.758962Z\" title=\"2026-11-12 21:23 UTC · Thu Nov 12, 1:23 PM PST\">1:23 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 12</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-12T21:23:25.758962Z\">12 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 48%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-8437\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3713-sjc-delays#u-8437\">Model forecasts 48% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Thursday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>48%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>1.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3713-sjc-delays#u-8437\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3713\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3713-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"7943\" data-event=\"3487\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMTo0MDo1My4zNTg1MzMrMDA6MDB8Nzk0Mw\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7943\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-09T21:40:53.358533Z\" title=\"2026-11-09 21:40 UTC · Mon Nov 9, 1:40 PM PST\">1:40 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 9</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-09T21:40:53.358533Z\">3 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-7943\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3487-sjc-delays#u-7943\">San Jose departures running late: 42% left 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 12 departures that took off between 12:40 PM and 1:40 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>12:40 PM–1:40 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>12 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>42%</b></span><span>Typical <b>21%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3487-sjc-delays#u-7943\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3487\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3487-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"7886\" data-event=\"3452\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNzo1NjoyNC42NjcwNTYrMDA6MDB8Nzg4Ng\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7886\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-09T17:56:24.667056Z\" title=\"2026-11-09 17:56 UTC · Mon Nov 9, 9:56 AM PST\">9:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 9</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-09T17:56:24.667056Z\">3 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 43%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-7886\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3452-sjc-delays#u-7886\">Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Monday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>43%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>8.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3452-sjc-delays#u-7886\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3452\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3452-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"7221\" data-event=\"3173\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMTo1NjozOS43NjY4NjQrMDA6MDB8NzIyMQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7221\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-06T21:56:39.766864Z\" title=\"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC · Fri Nov 6, 1:56 PM PST\">1:56 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 6</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-06T21:56:39.766864Z\">6 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 57%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-7221\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3173-sjc-delays#u-7221\">Model forecasts 57% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>57%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>1.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3173-sjc-delays#u-7221\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3173\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3173-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"7199\" data-event=\"3167\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMTo1MDozMC43NDkxOTUrMDA6MDB8NzE5OQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7199\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-06T21:50:30.749195Z\" title=\"2026-11-06 21:50 UTC · Fri Nov 6, 1:50 PM PST\">1:50 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 6</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-06T21:50:30.749195Z\">6 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-7199\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3167-sjc-delays#u-7199\">San Jose departures running late: 42% left 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 12 departures that took off between 12:50 PM and 1:50 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>12:50 PM–1:50 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>12 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>42%</b></span><span>Typical <b>21%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3167-sjc-delays#u-7199\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3167\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3167-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"5592\" data-event=\"2465\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxOToyNjo1OS4xMDM1MjMrMDA6MDB8NTU5Mg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-5592\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-02T19:26:59.103523Z\" title=\"2026-11-02 19:26 UTC · Mon Nov 2, 11:26 AM PST\">11:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 2</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-02T19:26:59.103523Z\">10 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 46%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-5592\"><a href=\"/wire/events/2465-sjc-delays#u-5592\">Model forecasts 46% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Monday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>46%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>3.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/2465-sjc-delays#u-5592\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"2465\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/2465-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"5591\" data-event=\"2464\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxOToyNjo1OS4wOTk5NzMrMDA6MDB8NTU5MQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-5591\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-02T19:26:59.099973Z\" title=\"2026-11-02 19:26 UTC · Mon Nov 2, 11:26 AM PST\">11:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 2</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-02T19:26:59.099973Z\">10 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 47%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-5591\"><a href=\"/wire/events/2464-sjc-delays#u-5591\">Model forecasts 47% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Monday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Monday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>47%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>0.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/2464-sjc-delays#u-5591\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"2464\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/2464-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"4839\" data-event=\"2168\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wMVQyMToyNzo0Ni42MjEwOTcrMDA6MDB8NDgzOQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-4839\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-01T21:27:46.621097Z\" title=\"2026-11-01 21:27 UTC · Sun Nov 1, 1:27 PM PST\">1:27 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PST, Nov 1</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-01T21:27:46.621097Z\">11 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-4839\"><a href=\"/wire/events/2168-sjc-delays#u-4839\">San Jose departures running late: 42% left 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 12 departures that took off between 12:27 PM and 1:27 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>12:27 PM–1:27 PM PST</b></span><span>Sample <b>12 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>42%</b></span><span>Typical <b>18%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/2168-sjc-delays#u-4839\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"2168\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/2168-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"4158\" data-event=\"1852\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0zMFQyMDo1NzozMy41Njk0MjIrMDA6MDB8NDE1OA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-4158\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-30T20:57:33.569422Z\" title=\"2026-10-30 20:57 UTC · Fri Oct 30, 1:57 PM PDT\">1:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PDT, Oct 30</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-30T20:57:33.569422Z\">13 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 51%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-4158\"><a href=\"/wire/events/1852-sjc-delays#u-4158\">Model forecasts 51% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>51%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>4.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/1852-sjc-delays#u-4158\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"1852\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/1852-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"4157\" data-event=\"1851\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0zMFQyMDo1NzozMy41NjUzOTcrMDA6MDB8NDE1Nw\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-4157\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-30T20:57:33.565397Z\" title=\"2026-10-30 20:57 UTC · Fri Oct 30, 1:57 PM PDT\">1:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PDT, Oct 30</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-30T20:57:33.565397Z\">13 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 50%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-4157\"><a href=\"/wire/events/1851-sjc-delays#u-4157\">Model forecasts 50% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>50%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>1.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/1851-sjc-delays#u-4157\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"1851\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/1851-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"3898\" data-event=\"1740\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0yOVQyMzo1ODowMy4zODE3MzcrMDA6MDB8Mzg5OA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-3898\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-29T23:58:03.381737Z\" title=\"2026-10-29 23:58 UTC · Thu Oct 29, 4:58 PM PDT\">4:58 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PDT, Oct 29</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-29T23:58:03.381737Z\">14 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 50%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-3898\"><a href=\"/wire/events/1740-sjc-delays#u-3898\">Model forecasts 50% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Thursday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>50%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>1.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/1740-sjc-delays#u-3898\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"1740\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/1740-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"3841\" data-event=\"1708\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0yOVQyMToxMToyNS4wOTg5MzcrMDA6MDB8Mzg0MQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-3841\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-29T21:11:25.098937Z\" title=\"2026-10-29 21:11 UTC · Thu Oct 29, 2:11 PM PDT\">2:11 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PDT, Oct 29</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-29T21:11:25.098937Z\">14 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-3841\"><a href=\"/wire/events/1708-sjc-delays#u-3841\">San Jose departures running late: 43% left 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 14 departures that took off between 1:11 PM and 2:11 PM PDT, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>1:11 PM–2:11 PM PDT</b></span><span>Sample <b>14 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>43%</b></span><span>Typical <b>21%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/1708-sjc-delays#u-3841\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"1708\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/1708-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"3833\" data-event=\"1704\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0yOVQyMDo1Njo1Ny40MDg1NDIrMDA6MDB8MzgzMw\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-3833\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-29T20:56:57.408542Z\" title=\"2026-10-29 20:56 UTC · Thu Oct 29, 1:56 PM PDT\">1:56 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PDT, Oct 29</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-29T20:56:57.408542Z\">14 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 44%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-3833\"><a href=\"/wire/events/1704-sjc-delays#u-3833\">Model forecasts 44% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Thursday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>44%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>1.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/1704-sjc-delays#u-3833\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"1704\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/1704-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"3344\" data-event=\"1487\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0yNlQyMjoxNTo0MS42ODk3OTkrMDA6MDB8MzM0NA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-3344\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-26T22:15:41.689799Z\" title=\"2026-10-26 22:15 UTC · Mon Oct 26, 3:15 PM PDT\">3:15 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PDT, Oct 26</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-26T22:15:41.689799Z\">17 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-3344\"><a href=\"/wire/events/1487-sjc-delays#u-3344\">San Jose departures running late: 57% left 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 14 departures that took off between 2:15 PM and 3:15 PM PDT, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>2:15 PM–3:15 PM PDT</b></span><span>Sample <b>14 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>57%</b></span><span>Typical <b>27%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/1487-sjc-delays#u-3344\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"1487\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/1487-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"3340\" data-event=\"1486\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0yNlQyMTo1NzoxMy41OTA1ODYrMDA6MDB8MzM0MA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-3340\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-26T21:57:13.590586Z\" title=\"2026-10-26 21:57 UTC · Mon Oct 26, 2:57 PM PDT\">2:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PDT, Oct 26</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-26T21:57:13.590586Z\">17 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 41%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-3340\"><a href=\"/wire/events/1486-sjc-delays#u-3340\">Model forecasts 41% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Monday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>41%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>3.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/1486-sjc-delays#u-3340\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"1486\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/1486-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"3310\" data-event=\"1474\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0yNlQyMDoyNjo1MS45MzUzOTIrMDA6MDB8MzMxMA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-3310\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-26T20:26:51.935392Z\" title=\"2026-10-26 20:26 UTC · Mon Oct 26, 1:26 PM PDT\">1:26 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PDT, Oct 26</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-26T20:26:51.935392Z\">17 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 42%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-3310\"><a href=\"/wire/events/1474-sjc-delays#u-3310\">Model forecasts 42% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Monday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>42%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>1.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/1474-sjc-delays#u-3310\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"1474\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/1474-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"2549\" data-event=\"1132\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QyMDo1ODo1Ni4zNTc1NDArMDA6MDB8MjU0OQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-2549\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-23T20:58:56.357540Z\" title=\"2026-10-23 20:58 UTC · Fri Oct 23, 1:58 PM PDT\">1:58 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PDT, Oct 23</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-23T20:58:56.357540Z\">20 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-2549\"><a href=\"/wire/events/1132-sjc-delays#u-2549\">San Jose departures running late: 53% left 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 15 departures that took off between 12:58 PM and 1:58 PM PDT, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>12:58 PM–1:58 PM PDT</b></span><span>Sample <b>15 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>53%</b></span><span>Typical <b>21%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/1132-sjc-delays#u-2549\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"1132\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/1132-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"2530\" data-event=\"1078\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QyMDoyNjoxMi4yMTk2MDgrMDA6MDB8MjUzMA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-2530\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-23T20:26:12.219608Z\" title=\"2026-10-23 20:26 UTC · Fri Oct 23, 1:26 PM PDT\">1:26 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PDT, Oct 23</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-23T20:26:12.219608Z\">20 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 57%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-2530\"><a href=\"/wire/events/1078-sjc-delays#u-2530\">Model raises San Jose departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 57%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 46% → 57% since the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>57%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>4.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/1078-sjc-delays#u-2530\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/1078-sjc-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"1078\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/1078-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"2529\" data-event=\"1062\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QyMDoyNjoxMi4yMTUwMjMrMDA6MDB8MjUyOQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-2529\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-23T20:26:12.215023Z\" title=\"2026-10-23 20:26 UTC · Fri Oct 23, 1:26 PM PDT\">1:26 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">PDT, Oct 23</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-23T20:26:12.215023Z\">20 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 58%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/SJC\">SJC</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-2529\"><a href=\"/wire/events/1062-sjc-delays#u-2529\">Model raises San Jose departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 58%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 45% → 58% since the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>58%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>1.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/1062-sjc-delays#u-2529\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/1062-sjc-delays\">1 earlier matching update</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/SJC\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View SJC</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"1062\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/1062-sjc-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n"],"filters":"airport=SJC"}