{"items":[{"id":9749,"event_id":4307,"slug":"4307-sjc-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among San Jose departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 33 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.722553Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi43MjI1NTMrMDA6MDB8OTc0OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.5,"target":"SJC departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9749,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9357,"event_id":3838,"slug":"3838-sjc-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts San Jose departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 84%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"51% → 84% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.589395Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC41ODkzOTUrMDA6MDB8OTM1Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"84%","expected_cancellations":1.5,"target":"SJC departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":21,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9357,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9356,"event_id":3792,"slug":"3792-sjc-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises San Jose departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 84%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"57% → 84% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.586306Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC41ODYzMDYrMDA6MDB8OTM1Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"84%","expected_cancellations":2.8,"target":"SJC departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9356,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9195,"event_id":3792,"slug":"3792-sjc-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts San Jose departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 57%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"46% → 57% since the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.549364Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy41NDkzNjQrMDA6MDB8OTE5NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"SJC departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9356,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9356,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises San Jose departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 84%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.586306Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8799,"event_id":3880,"slug":"3880-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.263192Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yNjMxOTIrMDA6MDB8ODc5OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"SJC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8799,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8752,"event_id":3859,"slug":"3859-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Jose arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:52 PM and 10:52 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at San Jose arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:52:01.558685Z","time":"10:52 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:52 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:52 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:52:00Z","time":"10:52 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:52 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:52 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:52:00.426609Z","time":"10:52 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:52 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjo1MjowMS41NTg2ODUrMDA6MDB8ODc1Mg","measurement":{"window":"9:52 PM–10:52 PM PST","n":13,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"54%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8752,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8676,"event_id":3838,"slug":"3838-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 51% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.536748Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni41MzY3NDgrMDA6MDB8ODY3Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"SJC departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":22.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":20,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9357,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9357,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts San Jose departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 84%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.589395Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8572,"event_id":3792,"slug":"3792-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.825890Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy44MjU4OTArMDA6MDB8ODU3Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"SJC departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":21.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9356,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9356,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises San Jose departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 84%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.586306Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8441,"event_id":3715,"slug":"3715-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Jose departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 12:39 PM and 1:39 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:39:53.186515Z","time":"1:39 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:39 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:39 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:39:00Z","time":"1:39 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:39 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:39 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:39:52.307369Z","time":"1:39 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:39 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:39 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTozOTo1My4xODY1MTUrMDA6MDB8ODQ0MQ","measurement":{"window":"12:39 PM–1:39 PM PST","n":12,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":19.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8441,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8438,"event_id":3714,"slug":"3714-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:23:25.762533Z","time":"1:23 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:23 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:23 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:23:24.950393Z","time":"1:23 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:23 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:23 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMToyMzoyNS43NjI1MzMrMDA6MDB8ODQzOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SJC departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":21,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8438,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8437,"event_id":3713,"slug":"3713-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:23:25.758962Z","time":"1:23 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:23 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:23 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:23:24.950393Z","time":"1:23 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:23 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:23 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMToyMzoyNS43NTg5NjIrMDA6MDB8ODQzNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SJC departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8437,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7943,"event_id":3487,"slug":"3487-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Jose departures running late: 42% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 12:40 PM and 1:40 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:40:53.358533Z","time":"1:40 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:40 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:40 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:40:00Z","time":"1:40 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:40 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:40:51.753843Z","time":"1:40 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:40 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:40 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMTo0MDo1My4zNTg1MzMrMDA6MDB8Nzk0Mw","measurement":{"window":"12:40 PM–1:40 PM PST","n":12,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"42%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":11.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7943,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7886,"event_id":3452,"slug":"3452-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T17:56:24.667056Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T17:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T17:56:19.369231Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNzo1NjoyNC42NjcwNTYrMDA6MDB8Nzg4Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SJC departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":20,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T17:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7886,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7221,"event_id":3173,"slug":"3173-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 57% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:39.766864Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:37.678010Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMTo1NjozOS43NjY4NjQrMDA6MDB8NzIyMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"SJC departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":41,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7221,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7199,"event_id":3167,"slug":"3167-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Jose departures running late: 42% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 12:50 PM and 1:50 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:50:30.749195Z","time":"1:50 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:50 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:50 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:50:00Z","time":"1:50 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:50 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:50 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:50:29.397986Z","time":"1:50 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:50 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMTo1MDozMC43NDkxOTUrMDA6MDB8NzE5OQ","measurement":{"window":"12:50 PM–1:50 PM PST","n":12,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"42%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":14.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5592,"event_id":2465,"slug":"2465-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T19:26:59.103523Z","time":"11:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 19:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T19:26:55.329169Z","time":"11:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 19:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxOToyNjo1OS4xMDM1MjMrMDA6MDB8NTU5Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"SJC departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5592,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5591,"event_id":2464,"slug":"2464-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Monday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T19:26:59.099973Z","time":"11:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 19:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T19:26:55.329169Z","time":"11:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 19:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxOToyNjo1OS4wOTk5NzMrMDA6MDB8NTU5MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"SJC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":53,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5591,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4839,"event_id":2168,"slug":"2168-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"San Jose departures running late: 42% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 12:27 PM and 1:27 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-01T21:27:46.621097Z","time":"1:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 1:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 21:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-01T21:27:00Z","time":"1:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 1:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 21:27 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-01T21:27:44.315983Z","time":"1:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 1:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 21:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMVQyMToyNzo0Ni42MjEwOTcrMDA6MDB8NDgzOQ","measurement":{"window":"12:27 PM–1:27 PM PST","n":12,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"42%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":11.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":4839,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4158,"event_id":1852,"slug":"1852-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 51% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-30T20:57:33.569422Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 1:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-30T20:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 1:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-30T20:57:32.429724Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 1:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0zMFQyMDo1NzozMy41Njk0MjIrMDA6MDB8NDE1OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"SJC departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-30T20:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 1:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":4158,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4157,"event_id":1851,"slug":"1851-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-30T20:57:33.565397Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 1:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-30T20:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 1:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-30T20:57:32.429724Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 1:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0zMFQyMDo1NzozMy41NjUzOTcrMDA6MDB8NDE1Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"SJC departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":23,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-30T20:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 1:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":4157,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3898,"event_id":1740,"slug":"1740-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-29T23:58:03.381737Z","time":"4:58 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 29","ago":"15 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 29, 4:58 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-29 23:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-29T23:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 29","ago":"15 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 29, 4:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-29 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-29T23:57:56.143071Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 29","ago":"15 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 29, 4:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-29 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yOVQyMzo1ODowMy4zODE3MzcrMDA6MDB8Mzg5OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"SJC departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-29 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-29T23:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 29","ago":"15 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 29, 4:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-29 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":3898,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yOVQyMzo1ODowMy4zODE3MzcrMDA6MDB8Mzg5OA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi43MjI1NTMrMDA6MDB8OTc0OQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among San Jose departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 33 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n Late report\n
\n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 84%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts San Jose departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 84%

\n

What changed: 51% → 84% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 84%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 84%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises San Jose departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 84%

\n

What changed: 57% → 84% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 84%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts San Jose departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 57%

\n

What changed: 46% → 57% since the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 57%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 27 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 43%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 29 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

San Jose arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:52 PM and 10:52 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at San Jose arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:52 PM–10:52 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 32 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 34 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 46%Horizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 38 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

San Jose departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 12:39 PM and 1:39 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:39 PM–1:39 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 38 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 38 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

San Jose departures running late: 42% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 12:40 PM and 1:40 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:40 PM–1:40 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 43%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 57% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 57%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

San Jose departures running late: 42% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 12:50 PM and 1:50 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:50 PM–1:50 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 46%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Monday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 47%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 1\n 12 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

San Jose departures running late: 42% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 12:27 PM and 1:27 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:27 PM–1:27 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 18%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 30\n 14 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 30\n 14 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for San Jose departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 29\n 15 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SJC\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for San Jose departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SJC\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"airport=SJC&mode=all"}