{"items":[{"id":8797,"event_id":3878,"slug":"3878-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.513353Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni41MTMzNTMrMDA6MDB8ODY3NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"SMF departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":22.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":25,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8674,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8570,"event_id":3790,"slug":"3790-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.791910Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43OTE5MTArMDA6MDB8ODU3MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"SMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":21.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":25,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8570,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7839,"event_id":3426,"slug":"3426-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Sacramento arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:00 PM and 12:00 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 62% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:27:39.823173Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:27:38.742510Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMToyNzozOS44MjMxNzMrMDA6MDB8NzM1Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"62%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SMF departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7353,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7264,"event_id":3189,"slug":"3189-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:56:00.841698Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:55:59.164561Z","time":"2:55 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:55 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMjo1NjowMC44NDE2OTgrMDA6MDB8NzI2NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"SMF departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":44,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7264,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7218,"event_id":3172,"slug":"3172-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:39.736811Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:37.678010Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMTo1NjozOS43MzY4MTErMDA6MDB8NzIxOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"SMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7218,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6793,"event_id":2982,"slug":"2982-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T05:00:25.787833Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 05:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T04:59:48.513088Z","time":"8:59 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:59 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 04:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQwNTowMDoyNS43ODc4MzMrMDA6MDB8Njc5Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"68%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SMF departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6793,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6665,"event_id":2911,"slug":"2911-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Sacramento departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 12:56 PM and 1:56 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). 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We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 6:53 PM PST. The latest, at 7:39 PM PST, reports ceiling 8500 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 9 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T03:49:53.264899Z","time":"7:49 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 7:49 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 03:49 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-04T03:39:00Z","time":"7:39 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 7:39 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 03:39 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-04T03:48:45.484114Z","time":"7:48 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 7:48 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 03:48 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQwMzo0OTo1My4yNjQ4OTkrMDA6MDB8NjMzOQ","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","7:39 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSMF 040339Z 34009KT 10SM SCT007 OVC085 12/11 A3007 RMK AO2 T01170111"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 7:39 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6339,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6329,"event_id":2772,"slug":"2772-smf-weather","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"The 6:53 PM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports ceiling 900 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 7 kt. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T03:01:41.029129Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 7:01 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 03:01 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-04T02:53:00Z","time":"6:53 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 6:53 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 02:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-04T03:00:12.821380Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 03:00 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQwMzowMTo0MS4wMjkxMjkrMDA6MDB8NjMyOQ","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","6:53 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","METAR KSMF 040253Z 34007KT 10SM BKN009 BKN033 OVC095 12/11 A3006 RMK AO2 RAB14E46 SLP180 P0000 60000 T01220111 53005"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 6:53 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6339,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":6339,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T03:49:53.264899Z","time":"7:49 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 7:49 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 03:49 UTC"}}},{"id":6273,"event_id":2741,"slug":"2741-smf-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 2:53 PM PST. The latest, at 3:28 PM PST, reports mist, ceiling 3700 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 5 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T23:44:12.825677Z","time":"3:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 23:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T23:28:00Z","time":"3:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 23:28 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T23:44:06.412758Z","time":"3:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 23:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QyMzo0NDoxMi44MjU2NzcrMDA6MDB8NjI3Mw","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","3:28 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSMF 032328Z 34005KT 6SM BR SCT010 BKN037 OVC045 13/12 A3005 RMK AO2 RAE07 P0001 T01330122"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 3:28 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6273,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6245,"event_id":2741,"slug":"2741-smf-weather","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"The 1:53 PM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports light rain; mist, ceiling 3500 ft, visibility 2 mi, wind 0 kt. Coded weather: “-RA BR”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T22:00:34.556123Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 22:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T21:53:00Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 1:53 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 21:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T22:00:22.803749Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 22:00 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QyMjowMDozNC41NTYxMjMrMDA6MDB8NjI0NQ","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","1:53 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","METAR KSMF 032153Z 00000KT 2SM -RA BR FEW006 BKN035 OVC044 13/11 A3005 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3 RAB2058 SLP175 P0007 T01280111"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 1:53 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6273,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":6273,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T23:44:12.825677Z","time":"3:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 23:44 UTC"}}},{"id":6211,"event_id":2723,"slug":"2723-smf-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 11:53 AM PST. The latest, at 12:27 PM PST, reports mist, ceiling 5000 ft, visibility 3 mi, wind 6 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T20:44:08.424737Z","time":"12:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 12:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 20:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T20:27:00Z","time":"12:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 12:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 20:27 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T20:44:02.419714Z","time":"12:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 12:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 20:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QyMDo0NDowOC40MjQ3MzcrMDA6MDB8NjIxMQ","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","12:27 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSMF 032027Z 01006KT 3SM BR FEW041 OVC050 14/12 A3004 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 RAE13 P0001 T01390117"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 12:27 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6211,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6184,"event_id":2723,"slug":"2723-smf-weather","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"The 11:43 AM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports light rain, ceiling 4400 ft, visibility 2 mi, wind 0 kt. Coded weather: “-RA”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:51:41.907546Z","time":"11:51 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 11:51 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:51 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:43:00Z","time":"11:43 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 11:43 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:43 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:51:21.057459Z","time":"11:51 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 11:51 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:51 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxOTo1MTo0MS45MDc1NDYrMDA6MDB8NjE4NA","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","11:43 AM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSMF 031943Z 00000KT 2SM -RA FEW031 BKN044 OVC060 13/10 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 RAE12B34 P0002 T01280100"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 11:43 AM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6211,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":6211,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T20:44:08.424737Z","time":"12:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 12:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 20:44 UTC"}}},{"id":6182,"event_id":2699,"slug":"2699-smf-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 10:53 AM PST. The latest, at 11:26 AM PST, reports haze, ceiling 6500 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 0 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:44:41.509455Z","time":"11:44 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 11:44 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:26:00Z","time":"11:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 11:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:44:22.125995Z","time":"11:44 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 11:44 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxOTo0NDo0MS41MDk0NTUrMDA6MDB8NjE4Mg","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","11:26 AM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSMF 031926Z 00000KT 6SM HZ FEW032 OVC065 12/09 A3008 RMK AO2 RAE12 P0001 T01220094"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 11:26 AM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6182,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6158,"event_id":2657,"slug":"2657-smf-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"34% → 32%; calm-weather level 25%","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:58:48.130418Z","time":"10:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:58:36.476385Z","time":"10:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxODo1ODo0OC4xMzA0MTgrMDA6MDB8NjE1OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":6158,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6133,"event_id":2699,"slug":"2699-smf-weather","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"The 10:14 AM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports rain; mist, ceiling 6000 ft, visibility 2.5 mi, wind 6 kt. Coded weather: “RA BR”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:21:27.764918Z","time":"10:21 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:21 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:21 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:14:00Z","time":"10:14 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:14 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:14 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:21:22.113779Z","time":"10:21 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:21 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:21 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxODoyMToyNy43NjQ5MTgrMDA6MDB8NjEzMw","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","10:14 AM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSMF 031814Z 02006KT 2 1/2SM RA BR FEW037 BKN060 OVC075 12/09 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 P0004 T01170094"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 10:14 AM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6182,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":6182,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:44:41.509455Z","time":"11:44 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 11:44 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:44 UTC"}}},{"id":6041,"event_id":2657,"slug":"2657-smf-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday at 34%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 34% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T11:58:06.175417Z","time":"3:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 11:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T11:58:05.116805Z","time":"3:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 11:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxMTo1ODowNi4xNzU0MTcrMDA6MDB8NjA0MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"34%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-03T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":6158,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":6158,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:58:48.130418Z","time":"10:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:58 UTC"}}},{"id":6014,"event_id":2657,"slug":"2657-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Tuesday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T06:43:02.212581Z","time":"10:43 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 10:43 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 06:43 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T06:43:00Z","time":"10:43 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 10:43 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 06:43 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T06:43:01.594499Z","time":"10:43 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 10:43 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 06:43 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QwNjo0MzowMi4yMTI1ODErMDA6MDB8NTkzNQ","measurement":{"window":"9:43 PM–10:43 PM PST","n":13,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"54%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":17.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5935,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5873,"event_id":2504,"slug":"2504-smf-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 52%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"58% → 52% since the 6:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T03:56:46.130717Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T03:56:44.382191Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni4xMzA3MTcrMDA6MDB8NTg3Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"52%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SMF departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-03T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":5873,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5838,"event_id":2504,"slug":"2504-smf-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"46% → 58% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T02:57:09.459010Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T02:57:08.554989Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QwMjo1NzowOS40NTkwMTArMDA6MDB8NTgzOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"58%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SMF departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-03T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":5873,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":5873,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 52%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T03:56:46.130717Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 03:56 UTC"}}},{"id":5675,"event_id":2504,"slug":"2504-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T21:57:43.249056Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 21:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T21:57:41.341963Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 21:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQyMTo1Nzo0My4yNDkwNTYrMDA6MDB8NTY3NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"SMF departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":5873,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":5873,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 52%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T03:56:46.130717Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 03:56 UTC"}}}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQyMTo1Nzo0My4yNDkwNTYrMDA6MDB8NTY3NQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yNDU0ODYrMDA6MDB8ODc5Nw","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 43%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Sacramento arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:00 PM and 12:00 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:00 PM–12:00 AM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Sacramento arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:06 PM and 9:06 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:06 PM–9:06 PM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 62%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 62% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 62%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 55%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 55%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 57%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 68%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 68%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
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Sacramento departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 12 departures that took off between 12:56 PM and 1:56 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 12:56 PM–1:56 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 24%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n \n PST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n SMF\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

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What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported

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No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 6:53 PM PST. The latest, at 7:39 PM PST, reports ceiling 8500 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 9 kt.

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Observed 7:39 PM PST

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\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n \n Weather\n SMF\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

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The 6:53 PM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports ceiling 900 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 7 kt. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.

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Observed 6:53 PM PST

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\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n SMF\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

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What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported

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No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 2:53 PM PST. The latest, at 3:28 PM PST, reports mist, ceiling 3700 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 5 kt.

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Observed 3:28 PM PST

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\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n \n Weather\n SMF\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

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The 1:53 PM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports light rain; mist, ceiling 3500 ft, visibility 2 mi, wind 0 kt. Coded weather: “-RA BR”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.

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Observed 1:53 PM PST

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\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n SMF\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

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What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported

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No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 11:53 AM PST. The latest, at 12:27 PM PST, reports mist, ceiling 5000 ft, visibility 3 mi, wind 6 kt.

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Observed 12:27 PM PST

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\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n \n Weather\n SMF\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

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The 11:43 AM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports light rain, ceiling 4400 ft, visibility 2 mi, wind 0 kt. Coded weather: “-RA”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.

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Observed 11:43 AM PST

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\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n SMF\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

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What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported

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No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 10:53 AM PST. The latest, at 11:26 AM PST, reports haze, ceiling 6500 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 0 kt.

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Observed 11:26 AM PST

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\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 32%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal

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What changed: 34% → 32%; calm-weather level 25%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 32%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n \n Weather\n SMF\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

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The 10:14 AM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports rain; mist, ceiling 6000 ft, visibility 2.5 mi, wind 6 kt. Coded weather: “RA BR”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.

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Observed 10:14 AM PST

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\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 34%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
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Updated model puts Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday at 34%

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What changed: 50% → 34% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 34%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 3\n 10 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 50%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Sacramento arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:43 PM and 10:43 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 9:43 PM–10:43 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 19%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 52%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 52%

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What changed: 58% → 52% since the 6:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 52%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 58%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 58%

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What changed: 46% → 58% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 58%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 46%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"airport=SMF&mode=all"}