{"items":[{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9190,"event_id":3790,"slug":"3790-smf-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Sacramento departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 59%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"48% → 59% since the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.517082Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy41MTcwODIrMDA6MDB8OTE5MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"SMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":25,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9190,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9154,"event_id":4028,"slug":"4028-smf-weather","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"The 11:53 AM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports rain; mist, ceiling 6500 ft, visibility 2.5 mi, wind 13 kt. Coded weather: “RA BR”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:54:13.651655Z","time":"12:54 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:54 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:53:00Z","time":"11:53 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:53 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:54:12.021717Z","time":"12:54 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:54 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NDoxMy42NTE2NTUrMDA6MDB8OTE1NA","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","11:53 AM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","METAR KSMF 131953Z 19013KT 2 1/2SM RA BR OVC065 14/12 A2959 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 5 RAB1857 SLP019 P0020 T01390122 $"],["Station","KSMF at Fri Nov 13, 11:53 AM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9154,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8797,"event_id":3878,"slug":"3878-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.245486Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yNDU0ODYrMDA6MDB8ODc5Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8797,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8674,"event_id":3836,"slug":"3836-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.513353Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni41MTMzNTMrMDA6MDB8ODY3NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"SMF departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":22.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":25,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8674,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8570,"event_id":3790,"slug":"3790-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.791910Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43OTE5MTArMDA6MDB8ODU3MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"SMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":21.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":25,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9190,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9190,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts Sacramento departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 59%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.517082Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"}}},{"id":7839,"event_id":3426,"slug":"3426-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Sacramento arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:00 PM and 12:00 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T08:00:48.383151Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 08:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T08:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T08:00:47.533614Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 08:00 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwODowMDo0OC4zODMxNTErMDA6MDB8NzgzOQ","measurement":{"window":"11:00 PM–12:00 AM PST","n":14,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"43%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":14.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7839,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7447,"event_id":3238,"slug":"3238-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Sacramento arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:06 PM and 9:06 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:06:03.634850Z","time":"9:06 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:06 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:06:00Z","time":"9:06 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:06 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:06:03.302416Z","time":"9:06 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:06 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNTowNjowMy42MzQ4NTArMDA6MDB8NzQ0Nw","measurement":{"window":"8:06 PM–9:06 PM PST","n":14,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"43%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7447,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7353,"event_id":3209,"slug":"3209-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 62% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:56:00.841698Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:55:59.164561Z","time":"2:55 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:55 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMjo1NjowMC44NDE2OTgrMDA6MDB8NzI2NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"SMF departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":44,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7264,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7218,"event_id":3172,"slug":"3172-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:39.736811Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:37.678010Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMTo1NjozOS43MzY4MTErMDA6MDB8NzIxOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"SMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7218,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6793,"event_id":2982,"slug":"2982-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T05:00:25.787833Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 05:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T04:59:48.513088Z","time":"8:59 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:59 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 04:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQwNTowMDoyNS43ODc4MzMrMDA6MDB8Njc5Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"68%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SMF departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6793,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6665,"event_id":2911,"slug":"2911-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Sacramento departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 12:56 PM and 1:56 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). 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The latest, at 7:39 PM PST, reports ceiling 8500 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 9 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T03:49:53.264899Z","time":"7:49 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 7:49 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 03:49 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-04T03:39:00Z","time":"7:39 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 7:39 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 03:39 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-04T03:48:45.484114Z","time":"7:48 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 7:48 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 03:48 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQwMzo0OTo1My4yNjQ4OTkrMDA6MDB8NjMzOQ","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","7:39 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSMF 040339Z 34009KT 10SM SCT007 OVC085 12/11 A3007 RMK AO2 T01170111"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 7:39 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6339,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6329,"event_id":2772,"slug":"2772-smf-weather","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"The 6:53 PM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports ceiling 900 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 7 kt. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T03:01:41.029129Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 7:01 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 03:01 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-04T02:53:00Z","time":"6:53 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 6:53 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 02:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-04T03:00:12.821380Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 03:00 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQwMzowMTo0MS4wMjkxMjkrMDA6MDB8NjMyOQ","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","6:53 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","METAR KSMF 040253Z 34007KT 10SM BKN009 BKN033 OVC095 12/11 A3006 RMK AO2 RAB14E46 SLP180 P0000 60000 T01220111 53005"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 6:53 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6339,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":6339,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T03:49:53.264899Z","time":"7:49 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 7:49 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 03:49 UTC"}}},{"id":6273,"event_id":2741,"slug":"2741-smf-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 2:53 PM PST. The latest, at 3:28 PM PST, reports mist, ceiling 3700 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 5 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T23:44:12.825677Z","time":"3:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 23:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T23:28:00Z","time":"3:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 23:28 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T23:44:06.412758Z","time":"3:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 23:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QyMzo0NDoxMi44MjU2NzcrMDA6MDB8NjI3Mw","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","3:28 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSMF 032328Z 34005KT 6SM BR SCT010 BKN037 OVC045 13/12 A3005 RMK AO2 RAE07 P0001 T01330122"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 3:28 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6273,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6245,"event_id":2741,"slug":"2741-smf-weather","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"The 1:53 PM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports light rain; mist, ceiling 3500 ft, visibility 2 mi, wind 0 kt. Coded weather: “-RA BR”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T22:00:34.556123Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 22:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T21:53:00Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 1:53 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 21:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T22:00:22.803749Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 22:00 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QyMjowMDozNC41NTYxMjMrMDA6MDB8NjI0NQ","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","1:53 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","METAR KSMF 032153Z 00000KT 2SM -RA BR FEW006 BKN035 OVC044 13/11 A3005 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3 RAB2058 SLP175 P0007 T01280111"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 1:53 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6273,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":6273,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T23:44:12.825677Z","time":"3:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 23:44 UTC"}}},{"id":6211,"event_id":2723,"slug":"2723-smf-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 11:53 AM PST. The latest, at 12:27 PM PST, reports mist, ceiling 5000 ft, visibility 3 mi, wind 6 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T20:44:08.424737Z","time":"12:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 12:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 20:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T20:27:00Z","time":"12:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 12:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 20:27 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T20:44:02.419714Z","time":"12:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 12:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 20:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QyMDo0NDowOC40MjQ3MzcrMDA6MDB8NjIxMQ","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","12:27 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSMF 032027Z 01006KT 3SM BR FEW041 OVC050 14/12 A3004 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 RAE13 P0001 T01390117"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 12:27 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6211,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6184,"event_id":2723,"slug":"2723-smf-weather","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"The 11:43 AM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports light rain, ceiling 4400 ft, visibility 2 mi, wind 0 kt. Coded weather: “-RA”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:51:41.907546Z","time":"11:51 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 11:51 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:51 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:43:00Z","time":"11:43 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 11:43 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:43 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:51:21.057459Z","time":"11:51 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 11:51 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:51 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxOTo1MTo0MS45MDc1NDYrMDA6MDB8NjE4NA","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","11:43 AM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSMF 031943Z 00000KT 2SM -RA FEW031 BKN044 OVC060 13/10 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 RAE12B34 P0002 T01280100"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 11:43 AM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6211,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":6211,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T20:44:08.424737Z","time":"12:44 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 12:44 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 20:44 UTC"}}},{"id":6182,"event_id":2699,"slug":"2699-smf-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 10:53 AM PST. The latest, at 11:26 AM PST, reports haze, ceiling 6500 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 0 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:44:41.509455Z","time":"11:44 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 11:44 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:26:00Z","time":"11:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 11:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:44:22.125995Z","time":"11:44 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 11:44 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxOTo0NDo0MS41MDk0NTUrMDA6MDB8NjE4Mg","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","11:26 AM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSMF 031926Z 00000KT 6SM HZ FEW032 OVC065 12/09 A3008 RMK AO2 RAE12 P0001 T01220094"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 11:26 AM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6182,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6158,"event_id":2657,"slug":"2657-smf-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"34% → 32%; calm-weather level 25%","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:58:48.130418Z","time":"10:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:58:36.476385Z","time":"10:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxODo1ODo0OC4xMzA0MTgrMDA6MDB8NjE1OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":6158,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6133,"event_id":2699,"slug":"2699-smf-weather","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","body":"The 10:14 AM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports rain; mist, ceiling 6000 ft, visibility 2.5 mi, wind 6 kt. Coded weather: “RA BR”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:21:27.764918Z","time":"10:21 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:21 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:21 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:14:00Z","time":"10:14 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:14 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:14 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:21:22.113779Z","time":"10:21 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:21 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:21 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxODoyMToyNy43NjQ5MTgrMDA6MDB8NjEzMw","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","10:14 AM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSMF 031814Z 02006KT 2 1/2SM RA BR FEW037 BKN060 OVC075 12/09 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 P0004 T01170094"],["Station","KSMF at Tue Nov 3, 10:14 AM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6182,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSMF&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":6182,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:44:41.509455Z","time":"11:44 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 11:44 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:44 UTC"}}},{"id":6041,"event_id":2657,"slug":"2657-smf-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday at 34%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 34% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T11:58:06.175417Z","time":"3:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 11:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T11:58:05.116805Z","time":"3:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 11:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxMTo1ODowNi4xNzU0MTcrMDA6MDB8NjA0MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"34%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-03T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":6158,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":6158,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:58:48.130418Z","time":"10:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:58 UTC"}}},{"id":6014,"event_id":2657,"slug":"2657-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Tuesday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T10:58:38.145080Z","time":"2:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 2:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 10:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T10:58:36.606520Z","time":"2:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 2:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 10:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxMDo1ODozOC4xNDUwODArMDA6MDB8NjAxNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-03T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":6158,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":6158,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:58:48.130418Z","time":"10:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 10:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:58 UTC"}}}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxMDo1ODozOC4xNDUwODArMDA6MDB8NjAxNA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n \n A+D\n RESTRICT\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n SMF\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Updated model puts Sacramento departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 59%

\n ▲ 48% → 59% since the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n SMF\n A+D\n WEATHER\n NEW\n \n

Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

\n Observed 11:53 AM PST\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SMF\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 43% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SMF\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n 50% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SMF\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n 48% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n SMF\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Sacramento arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 43% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n SMF\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Sacramento arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 43% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SMF\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 62% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n 62% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SMF\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n 55% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SMF\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n 57% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n SMF\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n 68% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n SMF\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Sacramento departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 50% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n SMF\n A+D\n WEATHER\n RESOLVED\n \n

Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

\n low cloud or visibility → no longer reported\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n SMF\n A+D\n WEATHER\n RESOLVED\n \n

Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

\n Observed 6:53 PM PST\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n SMF\n A+D\n WEATHER\n RESOLVED\n \n

Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

\n low cloud or visibility → no longer reported\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n SMF\n A+D\n WEATHER\n RESOLVED\n \n

Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

\n Observed 1:53 PM PST\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n SMF\n A+D\n WEATHER\n RESOLVED\n \n

Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

\n low cloud or visibility → no longer reported\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n SMF\n A+D\n WEATHER\n RESOLVED\n \n

Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

\n Observed 11:43 AM PST\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n SMF\n A+D\n WEATHER\n RESOLVED\n \n

Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

\n low cloud or visibility → no longer reported\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n SMF\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal

\n 34% → 32%; calm-weather level 25%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n SMF\n A+D\n WEATHER\n RESOLVED\n \n

Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Sacramento

\n Observed 10:14 AM PST\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SMF\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Updated model puts Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday at 34%

\n ▼ 50% → 34% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)\n
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\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SMF\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

\n 50% risk\n
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