{"items":[{"id":12823,"event_id":5110,"slug":"5110-smf-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Sunday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 41 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 2","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:10.343972Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:05.975812Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzoxMC4zNDM5NzIrMDA6MDB8MTA2MDA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.4,"target":"SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10600,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10599,"event_id":4355,"slug":"4355-smf-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 3 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:10.335202Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:05.975812Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzoxMC4zMzUyMDIrMDA6MDB8MTA1OTk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.3,"target":"SMF departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10599,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10267,"event_id":4306,"slug":"4306-smf-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Sacramento departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 36 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 4 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.686278Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC42ODYyNzgrMDA6MDB8MTAyNjc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.6,"target":"SMF departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10267,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9551,"event_id":4184,"slug":"4184-smf-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 24 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (24%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.630157Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC42MzAxNTcrMDA6MDB8OTU1MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.8,"target":"SMF departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":24,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9551,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNjo1Njo0Ny42NTc2NDkrMDA6MDB8MTI4MjM","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 15\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Sunday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 3 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 41 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Saturday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 5 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 20 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 22 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 24 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Saturday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 5 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 19 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 24 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Saturday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 7 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 21 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 24 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 3 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 27 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 28 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Saturday to about 1

\n

What changed: about 6 → 1

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 1 of the 21 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~1 cancellationsHorizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 28 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Saturday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 7 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 26 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 28 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Sacramento departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 10 → 3 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 37 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 31 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Sacramento departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 4 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 36 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 42 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 24 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (24%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=SMF"}