{"items":[{"id":8797,"event_id":3878,"slug":"3878-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.791910Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43OTE5MTArMDA6MDB8ODU3MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"SMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":21.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":25,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8570,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7839,"event_id":3426,"slug":"3426-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Sacramento arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:00 PM and 12:00 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:39.736811Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:37.678010Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMTo1NjozOS43MzY4MTErMDA6MDB8NzIxOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"SMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7218,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6793,"event_id":2982,"slug":"2982-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T05:00:25.787833Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 05:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T04:59:48.513088Z","time":"8:59 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:59 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 04:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQwNTowMDoyNS43ODc4MzMrMDA6MDB8Njc5Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"68%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SMF departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6793,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6665,"event_id":2911,"slug":"2911-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Sacramento departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 12:56 PM and 1:56 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). 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Sacramento typically sees 15% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T01:28:58.855059Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 5:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 01:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T01:28:54.427101Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 5:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 01:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQwMToyODo1OC44NTUwNTkrMDA6MDB8NTAwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"SMF departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5004,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4937,"event_id":2211,"slug":"2211-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Sacramento departures running late: 67% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 2:22 PM and 3:22 PM PST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-01T23:22:42.145781Z","time":"3:22 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 3:22 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 23:22 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-01T23:22:00Z","time":"3:22 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 3:22 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 23:22 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-01T23:22:40.486012Z","time":"3:22 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 3:22 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 23:22 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMVQyMzoyMjo0Mi4xNDU3ODErMDA6MDB8NDkzNw","measurement":{"window":"2:22 PM–3:22 PM PST","n":12,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"67%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":25.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":4937,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4868,"event_id":2181,"slug":"2181-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Sunday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-01T21:59:01.999658Z","time":"1:59 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 1:59 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 21:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-01T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-01T21:59:00.538593Z","time":"1:59 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 1:59 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 21:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMVQyMTo1OTowMS45OTk2NTgrMDA6MDB8NDg2OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":38,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-01T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":4868,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4433,"event_id":1971,"slug":"1971-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-31T21:56:39.164316Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 31","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sat Oct 31, 2:56 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-31 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-31T21:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 31","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sat Oct 31, 2:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-31 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-31T21:56:38.092398Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 31","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sat Oct 31, 2:56 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-31 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0zMVQyMTo1NjozOS4xNjQzMTYrMDA6MDB8NDQzMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"SMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-31 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":23,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-31T21:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 31","ago":"12 days ago","full":"Sat Oct 31, 2:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-31 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":4433,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4309,"event_id":1917,"slug":"1917-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Sacramento arrivals running late: 40% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 arrivals that landed between 9:07 PM and 10:07 PM PDT, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-10-31T05:07:59.423442Z","time":"10:07 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 10:07 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-31 05:07 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-31T05:07:00Z","time":"10:07 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 10:07 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-31 05:07 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-31T05:07:58.426298Z","time":"10:07 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 10:07 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-31 05:07 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0zMVQwNTowNzo1OS40MjM0NDIrMDA6MDB8NDMwOQ","measurement":{"window":"9:07 PM–10:07 PM PDT","n":15,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"40%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-10.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":4309,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4268,"event_id":1901,"slug":"1901-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Sacramento departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 6:36 PM and 7:36 PM PDT, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-31T02:36:51.659324Z","time":"7:36 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 7:36 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-31 02:36 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-31T02:36:00Z","time":"7:36 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 7:36 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-31 02:36 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-31T02:36:50.293060Z","time":"7:36 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 7:36 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-31 02:36 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0zMVQwMjozNjo1MS42NTkzMjQrMDA6MDB8NDI2OA","measurement":{"window":"6:36 PM–7:36 PM PDT","n":12,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":20.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":4268,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4214,"event_id":1876,"slug":"1876-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-30T23:56:24.771894Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 4:56 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 23:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-30T23:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 4:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-30T23:56:23.363891Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 4:56 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 23:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0zMFQyMzo1NjoyNC43NzE4OTQrMDA6MDB8NDIxNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"SMF departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":18,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-30T23:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 4:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":4214,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0zMFQyMzo1NjoyNC43NzE4OTQrMDA6MDB8NDIxNA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yNDU0ODYrMDA6MDB8ODc5Nw","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 43%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Sacramento arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:00 PM and 12:00 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:00 PM–12:00 AM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Sacramento arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:06 PM and 9:06 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:06 PM–9:06 PM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 62%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 62% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 62%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 55%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 55%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 57%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 68%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 68%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Sacramento departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 12:56 PM and 1:56 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:56 PM–1:56 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 32%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal

\n

What changed: 34% → 32%; calm-weather level 25%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 32%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Sacramento arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:43 PM and 10:43 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:43 PM–10:43 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 52%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 52%

\n

What changed: 58% → 52% since the 6:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 52%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 46%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Sacramento departures running late: 54% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 9:35 AM and 10:35 AM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 15% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:35 AM–10:35 AM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 15%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 32%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 32%, near normal

\n

What changed: 42% → 32%; calm-weather level 26%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Monday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 32%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 1\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Sacramento arrivals running late: 47% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 15 arrivals that landed between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:42 PM–10:42 PM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 47%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 1\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 64%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 64% delay risk for Sacramento departures 6–9 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 64%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 1\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Sacramento departures running late: 67% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 2:22 PM and 3:22 PM PST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 2:22 PM–3:22 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 67%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 1\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 56%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Sunday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 56%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 31\n 12 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 46%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 30\n 13 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Sacramento arrivals running late: 40% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 15 arrivals that landed between 9:07 PM and 10:07 PM PDT, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:07 PM–10:07 PM PDTSample 15 flightsLate 40%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 30\n 13 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Sacramento departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 6:36 PM and 7:36 PM PDT, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:36 PM–7:36 PM PDTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 30\n 13 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SMF\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SMF\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=SMF"}