{"items":[{"id":8798,"event_id":3879,"slug":"3879-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Orange County departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.531704Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni41MzE3MDQrMDA6MDB8ODY3NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"SNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":22.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8675,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8655,"event_id":3827,"slug":"3827-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Orange County departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 6:40 PM and 7:40 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Orange County departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). 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Orange County typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Orange County departures 3–6 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:57:13.297138Z","time":"12:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:57:09.982909Z","time":"12:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMDo1NzoxMy4yOTcxMzgrMDA6MDB8NzkzNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7935,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7704,"event_id":3357,"slug":"3357-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Orange County departures running late: 54% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 12:14 PM and 1:14 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:56:00.872600Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:55:59.164561Z","time":"2:55 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:55 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMjo1NjowMC44NzI2MDArMDA6MDB8NzI2OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"SNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":45,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7268,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6276,"event_id":2752,"slug":"2752-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Tuesday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T00:02:03.479180Z","time":"4:02 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 4:02 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 00:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T23:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T23:59:48.761426Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:59 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 23:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQwMDowMjowMy40NzkxODArMDA6MDB8NjI3Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"SNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-03T23:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 3:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6276,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5947,"event_id":2624,"slug":"2624-sna-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA reports Orange County airport closure until 6:15 AM PST","body":"The FAA’s airport status lists a closure at Orange County (SNA) until 6:15 AM PST.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T07:31:59.580754Z","time":"11:31 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:31 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 07:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T07:30:00Z","time":"11:30 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:30 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 07:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T07:31:59.534148Z","time":"11:31 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:31 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 07:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QwNzozMTo1OS41ODA3NTQrMDA6MDB8NTk0Nw","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5947,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5678,"event_id":2505,"slug":"2505-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T21:57:43.282470Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 21:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T21:57:41.341963Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 21:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQyMTo1Nzo0My4yODI0NzArMDA6MDB8NTY3OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"SNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":41,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5678,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5527,"event_id":2439,"slug":"2439-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Orange County departures 3–6 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:58:15.789615Z","time":"9:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:58:11.744116Z","time":"9:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxNzo1ODoxNS43ODk2MTUrMDA6MDB8NTUyNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"SNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":38,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5527,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5526,"event_id":2438,"slug":"2438-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Orange County departures noon–3 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:58:15.786706Z","time":"9:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:58:11.744116Z","time":"9:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxNzo1ODoxNS43ODY3MDYrMDA6MDB8NTUyNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"SNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":55,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5526,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5184,"event_id":2232,"slug":"2232-sna-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Orange County arrivals back near normal: 19% late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM PST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 62% at worst → 19% now","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T06:40:29.175861Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 10:40 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 06:40 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T06:40:00Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 10:40 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 06:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T06:40:27.100834Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 10:40 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 06:40 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQwNjo0MDoyOS4xNzU4NjErMDA6MDB8NTE4NA","measurement":{"window":"9:40 PM–10:40 PM PST","n":16,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"19%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5184,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5156,"event_id":2292,"slug":"2292-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Orange County departures running late: 80% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 8:19 PM and 9:19 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T05:19:55.483608Z","time":"9:19 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 9:19 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 05:19 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T05:19:00Z","time":"9:19 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 9:19 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 05:19 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T05:19:54.029965Z","time":"9:19 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 9:19 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 05:19 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQwNToxOTo1NS40ODM2MDgrMDA6MDB8NTE1Ng","measurement":{"window":"8:19 PM–9:19 PM PST","n":15,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"80%","baseline_pct":"29%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":60.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5156,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4559,"event_id":2035,"slug":"2035-sna-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Orange County","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Orange County (SNA) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 4:06 AM PST. The latest, at 4:13 AM PST, reports light rain; mist, ceiling 1500 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 4 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-01T12:56:07.792291Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 4:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 12:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-01T12:13:00Z","time":"4:13 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 4:13 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 12:13 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-01T12:56:05.484737Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 4:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-01 12:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMVQxMjo1NjowNy43OTIyOTErMDA6MDB8NDU1OQ","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","4:13 AM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSNA 011213Z AUTO 35004KT 6SM -RA BR FEW008 BKN015 OVC035 17/16 A2978 RMK AO2 T01670156 PNO $"],["Station","KSNA at Sun Nov 1, 4:13 AM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":4559,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSNA&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4120,"event_id":1545,"slug":"1545-sna-restriction","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA no longer lists a airport closure at Orange County","body":"The airport closure at Orange County (SNA) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 12:33 PM PDT, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 11:31 PM PDT.","what_changed":"airport closure no longer listed","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-30T19:35:26.193537Z","time":"12:35 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 12:35 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 19:35 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-30T19:33:05.049000Z","time":"12:33 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 12:33 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 19:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-30T19:35:26.149506Z","time":"12:35 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 30","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 30, 12:35 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 19:35 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0zMFQxOTozNToyNi4xOTM1MzcrMDA6MDB8NDEyMA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":4120,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3946,"event_id":1758,"slug":"1758-sna-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Orange County: 8 of 12 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 15 departures scheduled from Orange County (SNA) between 7:40 PM and 9:10 PM PDT, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 12. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-30T02:40:46.296451Z","time":"7:40 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 29","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 29, 7:40 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 02:40 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-30T02:40:00Z","time":"7:40 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 29","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 29, 7:40 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 02:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-30T02:40:44.716410Z","time":"7:40 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 29","ago":"14 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 29, 7:40 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-30 02:40 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0zMFQwMjo0MDo0Ni4yOTY0NTErMDA6MDB8Mzk0Ng","measure":{"chips":[["Next","7:40 PM–9:10 PM PDT"],["Tight turns","8 of 12"],["Share","67%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","7:40 PM–9:10 PM PDT · 15 departures, aircraft known for 12"],["Tight turns","8 (67%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 5 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 4023 to SMF at 8:40 PM: aircraft N8785L, inbound WN 3728 from DEN (airborne), -3 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1108 to SJC at 7:57 PM: aircraft N8922Q, inbound WN 3982 from SMF (airborne), 1 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1265 to PHX at 8:26 PM: aircraft N930WN, inbound WN 1265 from OAK (airborne), 12 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2369 to LAS at 8:36 PM: aircraft N8724J, inbound WN 677 from AUS (airborne), 13 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4002 to OAK at 8:12 PM: aircraft N8947Q, inbound WN 3852 from SJC (airborne), 18 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":3946,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2756,"event_id":1196,"slug":"1196-sna-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports thunderstorm at Orange County","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Orange County (SNA) in the last 50 minutes reports a thunderstorm; it was last reported at 7:53 PM PDT. The latest, at 8:07 PM PDT, reports light rain, ceiling 7500 ft, visibility 8 mi, wind 3 kt.","what_changed":"thunderstorm in the vicinity → no longer reported","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-24T03:44:27.237072Z","time":"8:44 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 8:44 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 03:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-24T03:07:00Z","time":"8:07 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 8:07 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 03:07 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-24T03:44:25.791011Z","time":"8:44 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 8:44 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 03:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yNFQwMzo0NDoyNy4yMzcwNzIrMDA6MDB8Mjc1Ng","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","8:07 PM PDT"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KSNA 240307Z 07003KT 8SM -RA FEW055 BKN075 OVC090 18/15 A2992 RMK AO2 T01830150 PNO $"],["Station","KSNA at Fri Oct 23, 8:07 PM PDT"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":2756,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSNA&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2715,"event_id":1154,"slug":"1154-sna-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Orange County departure delays ease: 58% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 6:14 PM and 7:14 PM PDT, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 87% → 58%","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-24T02:14:44.485904Z","time":"7:14 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 7:14 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 02:14 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-24T02:14:00Z","time":"7:14 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 7:14 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 02:14 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-24T02:14:43.153313Z","time":"7:14 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 7:14 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 02:14 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yNFQwMjoxNDo0NC40ODU5MDQrMDA6MDB8MjcxNQ","measurement":{"window":"6:14 PM–7:14 PM PDT","n":12,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"58%","baseline_pct":"28%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":20.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":2715,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2710,"event_id":1189,"slug":"1189-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Orange County arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 6:04 PM and 7:04 PM PDT, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-10-24T02:04:33.317665Z","time":"7:04 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 7:04 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 02:04 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-24T02:04:00Z","time":"7:04 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 7:04 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 02:04 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-24T02:04:32.201432Z","time":"7:04 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 7:04 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 02:04 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yNFQwMjowNDozMy4zMTc2NjUrMDA6MDB8MjcxMA","measurement":{"window":"6:04 PM–7:04 PM PDT","n":14,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":16.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":2710,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2650,"event_id":1109,"slug":"1109-sna-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 57%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"63% → 57% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-23T23:57:43.225556Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 4:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-23T23:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 4:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-23T23:57:42.105668Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 4:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QyMzo1Nzo0My4yMjU1NTYrMDA6MDB8MjY1MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"SNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-23T23:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 4:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":2650,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2590,"event_id":1108,"slug":"1108-sna-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Orange County departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"54% → 61% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-23T21:56:36.937357Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 2:56 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-23T21:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 2:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-23T21:56:35.360223Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 2:56 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QyMTo1NjozNi45MzczNTcrMDA6MDB8MjU5MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"SNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-23T21:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 2:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":2590,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2232,"event_id":967,"slug":"967-sna-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Orange County","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Orange County (SNA) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 9:22 PM PDT. The latest, at 9:53 PM PDT, reports ceiling 3300 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 3 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-23T05:13:51.721050Z","time":"10:13 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 10:13 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 05:13 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-23T04:53:00Z","time":"9:53 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 9:53 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 04:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-23T05:13:51.055028Z","time":"10:13 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 10:13 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 05:13 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QwNToxMzo1MS43MjEwNTArMDA6MDB8MjIzMg","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","9:53 PM PDT"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","METAR KSNA 230453Z 09003KT 10SM SCT026 BKN033 BKN048 18/14 A2999 RMK AO2 RAB12E52 SLP156 P0009 T01780144"],["Station","KSNA at Thu Oct 22, 9:53 PM PDT"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":2232,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSNA&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QwNToxMzo1MS43MjEwNTArMDA6MDB8MjIzMg","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yNTk2MTQrMDA6MDB8ODc5OA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Orange County departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 46%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Orange County departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 6:40 PM and 7:40 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:40 PM–7:40 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 25%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Orange County departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Orange County departures running late: 54% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 1:17 PM and 2:17 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 1:17 PM–2:17 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Orange County departures 3–6 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 45%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Orange County departures running late: 54% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 12:14 PM and 1:14 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:14 PM–1:14 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 55%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 55%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Tuesday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 45%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n New\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n SNA\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports Orange County airport closure until 6:15 AM PST

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status lists a closure at Orange County (SNA) until 6:15 AM PST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 46%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Orange County departures 3–6 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Orange County departures noon–3 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 1\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Orange County arrivals back near normal: 19% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 62% at worst → 19% now

\n \n

Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM PST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 9:40 PM–10:40 PM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 19%Typical 18%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 1\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Orange County departures running late: 80% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 15 departures that took off between 8:19 PM and 9:19 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:19 PM–9:19 PM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 80%Typical 29%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 1\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n SNA\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Orange County

\n

What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported

\n \n

No official weather observation (METAR) for Orange County (SNA) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 4:06 AM PST. The latest, at 4:13 AM PST, reports light rain; mist, ceiling 1500 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 4 kt.

\n \n

Observed 4:13 AM PST

\n \n \n
\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 30\n 13 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Traffic restriction\n SNA\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists a airport closure at Orange County

\n

What changed: airport closure no longer listed

\n \n

The airport closure at Orange County (SNA) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 12:33 PM PDT, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 11:31 PM PDT.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 29\n 14 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Orange County: 8 of 12 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n \n \n

Of the 15 departures scheduled from Orange County (SNA) between 7:40 PM and 9:10 PM PDT, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 12. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

\n \n

Next 7:40 PM–9:10 PM PDTTight turns 8 of 12Share 67%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 23\n 20 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n SNA\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

Official observation no longer reports thunderstorm at Orange County

\n

What changed: thunderstorm in the vicinity → no longer reported

\n \n

No official weather observation (METAR) for Orange County (SNA) in the last 50 minutes reports a thunderstorm; it was last reported at 7:53 PM PDT. The latest, at 8:07 PM PDT, reports light rain, ceiling 7500 ft, visibility 8 mi, wind 3 kt.

\n \n

Observed 8:07 PM PDT

\n \n \n
\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 23\n 20 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Orange County departure delays ease: 58% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 87% → 58%

\n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 6:14 PM and 7:14 PM PDT, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:14 PM–7:14 PM PDTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 28%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 23\n 20 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Orange County arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 6:04 PM and 7:04 PM PDT, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:04 PM–7:04 PM PDTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 18%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 23\n 20 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 57%

\n

What changed: 63% → 57% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 57%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 23\n 20 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 61%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Orange County departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%

\n

What changed: 54% → 61% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 61%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 22\n 21 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n SNA\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Orange County

\n

What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported

\n \n

No official weather observation (METAR) for Orange County (SNA) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 9:22 PM PDT. The latest, at 9:53 PM PDT, reports ceiling 3300 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 3 kt.

\n \n

Observed 9:53 PM PDT

\n \n \n
\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"airport=SNA"}