{"items":[{"id":9750,"event_id":4278,"slug":"4278-sna-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 15 among Orange County departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 32 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 15 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.724920Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi43MjQ5MjArMDA6MDB8OTc1MA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":14.6,"target":"SNA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9750,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi43MjQ5MjArMDA6MDB8OTc1MA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 24 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 15 among Orange County departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 15 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 32 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=SNA"}