{"items":[{"id":8798,"event_id":3879,"slug":"3879-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Orange County departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.531704Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni41MzE3MDQrMDA6MDB8ODY3NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"SNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":22.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8675,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8655,"event_id":3827,"slug":"3827-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Orange County departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 6:40 PM and 7:40 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). 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Orange County typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Orange County departures 3–6 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:57:13.297138Z","time":"12:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:57:09.982909Z","time":"12:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMDo1NzoxMy4yOTcxMzgrMDA6MDB8NzkzNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7935,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7704,"event_id":3357,"slug":"3357-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Orange County departures running late: 54% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 12:14 PM and 1:14 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T21:57:43.282470Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 21:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T21:57:41.341963Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 21:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQyMTo1Nzo0My4yODI0NzArMDA6MDB8NTY3OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"SNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":41,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5678,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5527,"event_id":2439,"slug":"2439-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Orange County departures 3–6 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:58:15.789615Z","time":"9:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:58:11.744116Z","time":"9:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxNzo1ODoxNS43ODk2MTUrMDA6MDB8NTUyNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"SNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":38,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5527,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5526,"event_id":2438,"slug":"2438-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Orange County departures noon–3 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:58:15.786706Z","time":"9:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:58:11.744116Z","time":"9:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxNzo1ODoxNS43ODY3MDYrMDA6MDB8NTUyNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"SNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":55,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T17:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 9:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5526,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5184,"event_id":2232,"slug":"2232-sna-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Orange County arrivals back near normal: 19% late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM PST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 62% at worst → 19% now","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T06:40:29.175861Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 10:40 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 06:40 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T06:40:00Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 10:40 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 06:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T06:40:27.100834Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 1","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 1, 10:40 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 06:40 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQwNjo0MDoyOS4xNzU4NjErMDA6MDB8NTE4NA","measurement":{"window":"9:40 PM–10:40 PM PST","n":16,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"19%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5184,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5156,"event_id":2292,"slug":"2292-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Orange County departures running late: 80% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 8:19 PM and 9:19 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). 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Orange County typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). 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Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-10-24T02:04:33.317665Z","time":"7:04 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 7:04 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 02:04 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-24T02:04:00Z","time":"7:04 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 7:04 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 02:04 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-24T02:04:32.201432Z","time":"7:04 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 7:04 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 02:04 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yNFQwMjowNDozMy4zMTc2NjUrMDA6MDB8MjcxMA","measurement":{"window":"6:04 PM–7:04 PM PDT","n":14,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":16.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":2710,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2650,"event_id":1109,"slug":"1109-sna-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 57%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"63% → 57% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-23T23:57:43.225556Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 4:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-23T23:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 4:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-23T23:57:42.105668Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 4:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QyMzo1Nzo0My4yMjU1NTYrMDA6MDB8MjY1MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"SNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-23T23:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 4:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":2650,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2590,"event_id":1108,"slug":"1108-sna-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Orange County departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"54% → 61% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-23T21:56:36.937357Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 2:56 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-23T21:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 2:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-23T21:56:35.360223Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 2:56 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QyMTo1NjozNi45MzczNTcrMDA6MDB8MjU5MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"SNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-23T21:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 2:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":2590,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2206,"event_id":965,"slug":"965-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Orange County arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 8:02 PM and 9:02 PM PDT, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-10-23T04:02:41.363266Z","time":"9:02 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 9:02 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 04:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-23T04:02:00Z","time":"9:02 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 9:02 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 04:02 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-23T04:02:40.469108Z","time":"9:02 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 9:02 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 04:02 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QwNDowMjo0MS4zNjMyNjYrMDA6MDB8MjIwNg","measurement":{"window":"8:02 PM–9:02 PM PDT","n":13,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"46%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":5.5},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":2206,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2065,"event_id":876,"slug":"876-sna-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"52% → 67% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-22T23:57:18.289208Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 4:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-22T23:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 4:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-22T23:57:17.058031Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 4:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yMlQyMzo1NzoxOC4yODkyMDgrMDA6MDB8MjA2NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"67%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"SNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-22T23:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 4:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":2065,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":1742,"event_id":767,"slug":"767-sna-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 40%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Thursday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 40%; calm-weather level 34%","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-22T14:27:15.007229Z","time":"7:27 AM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 7:27 AM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 14:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-22T13:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 6:00 AM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-22T14:27:13.914344Z","time":"7:27 AM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 7:27 AM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 14:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yMlQxNDoyNzoxNS4wMDcyMjkrMDA6MDB8MTc0Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"SNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-22T13:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 6:00 AM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":1742,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":1741,"event_id":764,"slug":"764-sna-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Orange County departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 39%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Thursday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 39%; calm-weather level 33%","airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-22T14:27:15.000766Z","time":"7:27 AM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 7:27 AM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 14:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-22T13:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 6:00 AM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-22T14:27:13.914344Z","time":"7:27 AM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 7:27 AM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 14:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yMlQxNDoyNzoxNS4wMDA3NjYrMDA6MDB8MTc0MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"39%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"SNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-22T13:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 22","ago":"21 days ago","full":"Thu Oct 22, 6:00 AM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-22 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":1741,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":1238,"event_id":571,"slug":"571-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Orange County arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 5:59 PM and 6:59 PM PDT, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-10-20T01:59:27.134626Z","time":"6:59 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 19","ago":"24 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 19, 6:59 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-20 01:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-20T01:59:00Z","time":"6:59 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 19","ago":"24 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 19, 6:59 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-20 01:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-20T01:59:25.915329Z","time":"6:59 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 19","ago":"24 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 19, 6:59 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-20 01:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yMFQwMTo1OToyNy4xMzQ2MjYrMDA6MDB8MTIzOA","measurement":{"window":"5:59 PM–6:59 PM PDT","n":14,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":1238,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":1186,"event_id":550,"slug":"550-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-19T21:57:56.875599Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 19","ago":"24 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 19, 2:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-19 21:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-19T21:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 19","ago":"24 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 19, 2:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-19 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-19T21:57:55.399474Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 19","ago":"24 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 19, 2:57 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-19 21:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xOVQyMTo1Nzo1Ni44NzU1OTkrMDA6MDB8MTE4Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-19T21:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PDT","date":"Oct 19","ago":"24 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 19, 2:00 PM PDT","utc_text":"2026-10-19 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":1186,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xOVQyMTo1Nzo1Ni44NzU1OTkrMDA6MDB8MTE4Ng","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yNTk2MTQrMDA6MDB8ODc5OA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Orange County departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 46%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Orange County departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 6:40 PM and 7:40 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:40 PM–7:40 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 25%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Orange County departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Orange County departures running late: 54% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 1:17 PM and 2:17 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 1:17 PM–2:17 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Orange County departures 3–6 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 45%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Orange County departures running late: 54% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 12:14 PM and 1:14 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:14 PM–1:14 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 55%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 55%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Tuesday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 45%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 46%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Orange County departures 3–6 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Orange County departures noon–3 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 1\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n SNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Orange County arrivals back near normal: 19% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 62% at worst → 19% now

\n \n

Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM PST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 9:40 PM–10:40 PM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 19%Typical 18%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 1\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Orange County departures running late: 80% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 15 departures that took off between 8:19 PM and 9:19 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:19 PM–9:19 PM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 80%Typical 29%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 23\n 20 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Orange County departure delays ease: 58% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 87% → 58%

\n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 6:14 PM and 7:14 PM PDT, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:14 PM–7:14 PM PDTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 28%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 23\n 20 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Orange County arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 6:04 PM and 7:04 PM PDT, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:04 PM–7:04 PM PDTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 18%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 23\n 20 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 57%

\n

What changed: 63% → 57% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 57%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 23\n 20 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 61%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Orange County departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%

\n

What changed: 54% → 61% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 61%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 22\n 21 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Orange County arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 8:02 PM and 9:02 PM PDT, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:02 PM–9:02 PM PDTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 18%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 22\n 21 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 67%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%

\n

What changed: 52% → 67% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 67%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 22\n 21 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 40%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 40%, near normal

\n

What changed: 44% → 40%; calm-weather level 34%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Thursday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 40%Horizon 10.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 22\n 21 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 39%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Orange County departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 39%, near normal

\n

What changed: 45% → 39%; calm-weather level 33%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Thursday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 39%Horizon 7.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 19\n 24 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Orange County arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 5:59 PM and 6:59 PM PDT, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 5:59 PM–6:59 PM PDTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 18%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PDT, Oct 19\n 24 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n SNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=SNA"}