Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nProbability 42%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
\n \n \n \nOf the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis (STL) between 9:09 PM and 10:39 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 15. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into STL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
\n \nNext 9:09 PM–10:39 PM CSTTight turns 8 of 15Share 53%
\n \n \nOf 16 arrivals that landed between 6:58 PM and 7:58 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
\n \nWindow 6:58 PM–7:58 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 21%
\n \n \nTailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nProbability 66%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
\n \n \n \nTailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nProbability 59%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
\n \n \n \nTailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nProbability 48%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
\n \n \n \nOf the 25 departures scheduled from St Louis (STL) between 5:36 PM and 7:06 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 21. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into STL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
\n \nNext 5:36 PM–7:06 PM CSTTight turns 9 of 21Share 43%
\n \n \nOf 21 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
\n \nWindow 8:46 PM–9:46 PM CSTSample 21 flightsLate 43%Typical 21%
\n \n \nWhat changed: late share 62% → 35%
\n \nOf 17 departures that took off between 7:34 PM and 8:34 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
\n \nWindow 7:34 PM–8:34 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 35%Typical 39%
\n \n \nWhat changed: 53% → 67% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
\n \nTailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nProbability 67%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
\n \n \n \nTailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nProbability 53%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
\n \n \n \nTailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nProbability 46%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
\n \n \n \nOf 13 departures that took off between 10:39 AM and 11:39 AM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
\n \nWindow 10:39 AM–11:39 AM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 62%Typical 21%
\n \n \nOf 14 arrivals that landed between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
\n \nWindow 9:42 PM–10:42 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 21%
\n \n \nWhat changed: late share 67% → 85%
\n \nOf 13 departures that took off between 8:21 PM and 9:21 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
\n \nWindow 8:21 PM–9:21 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 39%
\n \n \nWhat changed: 69% → 78% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
\n \nTailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nProbability 78%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
\n \n \n \nTailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nProbability 69%Horizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
\n \n \n \nOf 15 departures that took off between 4:25 PM and 5:25 PM CST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
\n \nWindow 4:25 PM–5:25 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 67%Typical 36%
\n \n \nWhat changed: late share 67% → 42%
\n \nOf 12 arrivals that landed between 10:55 PM and 11:55 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
\n \nWindow 10:55 PM–11:55 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 21%
\n \n \nWhat changed: late share 47% → 67%
\n \nOf 15 arrivals that landed between 10:08 PM and 11:08 PM CST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
\n \nWindow 10:08 PM–11:08 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 67%Typical 21%
\n \n \nWhat changed: 79% → 83% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
\n \nTailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nProbability 83%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
\n \n \n \nOf 19 arrivals that landed between 6:52 PM and 7:52 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
\n \nWindow 6:52 PM–7:52 PM CSTSample 19 flightsLate 47%Typical 21%
\n \n \nWhat changed: 76% → 79% since the 5:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
\n \nTailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nProbability 79%Horizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
\n \n \n \nOf the 20 departures scheduled from St Louis (STL) between 7:09 PM and 8:39 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 18. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into STL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
\n \nNext 7:09 PM–8:39 PM CSTTight turns 8 of 18Share 44%
\n \n \nWhat changed: 65% → 76% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
\n \nTailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nProbability 76%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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