{"items":[{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9339,"event_id":4042,"slug":"4042-stl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 90%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"63% → 90% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.455391Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC40NTUzOTErMDA6MDB8OTMzOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"90%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"STL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":15,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9339,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9338,"event_id":4041,"slug":"4041-stl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 80%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 80% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"54% → 80% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.451682Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC40NTE2ODIrMDA6MDB8OTMzOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"80%","expected_cancellations":3.3,"target":"STL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9338,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9188,"event_id":4042,"slug":"4042-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 63% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.503008Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy41MDMwMDgrMDA6MDB8OTE4OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"63%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"STL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":15,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9339,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9339,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 90%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.455391Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9187,"event_id":4041,"slug":"4041-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 54% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.497382Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy40OTczODIrMDA6MDB8OTE4Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"54%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"STL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9338,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9338,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 80%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.451682Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9086,"event_id":3991,"slug":"3991-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for St Louis departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:34.342523Z","time":"12:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:33.042090Z","time":"12:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODo1NzozNC4zNDI1MjMrMDA6MDB8OTA4Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"STL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9086,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9047,"event_id":3976,"slug":"3976-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for St Louis departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:15.628389Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:14.641613Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzo1NjoxNS42MjgzODkrMDA6MDB8OTA0Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"STL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":35,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9047,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9018,"event_id":3936,"slug":"3936-stl-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis departures back near normal: 18% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 departures that took off between 10:02 AM and 11:02 AM CST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 15% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 25% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 67% at worst → 18% now","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:02:57.903669Z","time":"11:02 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:02 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:02:00Z","time":"11:02 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:02 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:02 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:02:56.906403Z","time":"11:02 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:02 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:02 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzowMjo1Ny45MDM2NjkrMDA6MDB8OTAxOA","measurement":{"window":"10:02 AM–11:02 AM CST","n":22,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"18%","baseline_pct":"15%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9018,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8957,"event_id":3936,"slug":"3936-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 8:45 AM and 9:45 AM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:45:22.690957Z","time":"9:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:45:00Z","time":"9:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:45:22.068656Z","time":"9:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTo0NToyMi42OTA5NTcrMDA6MDB8ODk1Nw","measurement":{"window":"8:45 AM–9:45 AM CST","n":13,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"62%","baseline_pct":"17%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":23.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9018,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9018,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"St Louis departures back near normal: 18% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:02:57.903669Z","time":"11:02 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:02 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:02 UTC"}}},{"id":8904,"event_id":3898,"slug":"3898-stl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 32%; calm-weather level 22%","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.419653Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:44.385825Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS40MTk2NTMrMDA6MDB8ODkwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"STL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":35,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8904,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8847,"event_id":3898,"slug":"3898-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for St Louis departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:57:45.459407Z","time":"4:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:57:44.821486Z","time":"4:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMDo1Nzo0NS40NTk0MDcrMDA6MDB8ODg0Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"STL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":35,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8904,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8904,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 32%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.419653Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"}}},{"id":8643,"event_id":3823,"slug":"3823-stl-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"St Louis: 8 of 15 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis (STL) between 9:09 PM and 10:39 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 15. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into STL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:09:54.413676Z","time":"9:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:09 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:09:00Z","time":"9:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:09 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:09:51.696102Z","time":"9:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:09 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzowOTo1NC40MTM2NzYrMDA6MDB8ODY0Mw","measure":{"chips":[["Next","9:09 PM–10:39 PM CST"],["Tight turns","8 of 15"],["Share","53%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","9:09 PM–10:39 PM CST · 15 departures, aircraft known for 15"],["Tight turns","8 (53%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 6 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 2707 to BNA at 9:41 PM: aircraft N8667D, inbound WN 3364 from PHL (airborne), -61 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4166 to MCI at 9:40 PM: aircraft N456WN, inbound WN 1498 from DAL (airborne), -14 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4964 to MSP at 9:42 PM: aircraft N8931L, inbound WN 3680 from RSW (airborne), -5 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 742 to LAS at 9:50 PM: aircraft N940WN, inbound WN 742 from BNA (airborne), 24 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1974 to OMA at 10:01 PM: aircraft N7868K, inbound WN 2874 from MCO (airborne), 26 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8643,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8587,"event_id":3798,"slug":"3798-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 6:58 PM and 7:58 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:58:26.718516Z","time":"7:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:58:00Z","time":"7:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:58 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:58:25.972319Z","time":"7:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMTo1ODoyNi43MTg1MTYrMDA6MDB8ODU4Nw","measurement":{"window":"6:58 PM–7:58 PM CST","n":16,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":16.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8587,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8492,"event_id":3743,"slug":"3743-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 66% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:46.000361Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:44.677675Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjo1Nzo0Ni4wMDAzNjErMDA6MDB8ODQ5Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"66%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"STL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":15,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8492,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8491,"event_id":3742,"slug":"3742-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 59% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:45.994500Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:44.677675Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjo1Nzo0NS45OTQ1MDArMDA6MDB8ODQ5MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"STL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":30,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8491,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8410,"event_id":3698,"slug":"3698-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for St Louis departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.686829Z","time":"2:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"2:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS42ODY4MjkrMDA6MDB8ODQxMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"STL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8410,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8187,"event_id":3587,"slug":"3587-stl-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"St Louis: 9 of 21 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 25 departures scheduled from St Louis (STL) between 5:36 PM and 7:06 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 21. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into STL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T23:36:06.927527Z","time":"5:36 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 5:36 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 23:36 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T23:36:00Z","time":"5:36 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 5:36 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 23:36 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T23:36:04.397614Z","time":"5:36 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 5:36 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 23:36 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQyMzozNjowNi45Mjc1MjcrMDA6MDB8ODE4Nw","measure":{"chips":[["Next","5:36 PM–7:06 PM CST"],["Tight turns","9 of 21"],["Share","43%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","5:36 PM–7:06 PM CST · 25 departures, aircraft known for 21"],["Tight turns","9 (43%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 6 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 4206 to TPA at 6:51 PM: aircraft N953WN, inbound WN 2730 from BWI (airborne), 2 min to turn"],["Tightest","DL 543 to ATL at 5:46 PM: aircraft N957DZ, inbound DL 1485 from ATL (landed), 10 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4923 to PHL at 6:16 PM: aircraft N8809L, inbound WN 840 from PHX (airborne), 13 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4711 to FLL at 6:15 PM: aircraft N8960L, inbound WN 4711 from SAN (airborne), 16 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4810 to RDU at 6:06 PM: aircraft N500WR, inbound WN 4061 from SMF (landed), 29 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8187,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8021,"event_id":3516,"slug":"3516-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:46:31.250758Z","time":"9:46 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:46 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:46 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:46:00Z","time":"9:46 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:46 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:46 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:46:30.124948Z","time":"9:46 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:46 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:46 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMzo0NjozMS4yNTA3NTgrMDA6MDB8ODAyMQ","measurement":{"window":"8:46 PM–9:46 PM CST","n":21,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"43%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":11.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8021,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8004,"event_id":3449,"slug":"3449-stl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis departure delays ease: 35% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 17 departures that took off between 7:34 PM and 8:34 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 62% → 35%","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:34:21.620089Z","time":"8:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:34 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:34:00Z","time":"8:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:34 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:34:20.449815Z","time":"8:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:34 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMjozNDoyMS42MjAwODkrMDA6MDB8ODAwNA","measurement":{"window":"7:34 PM–8:34 PM CST","n":17,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"35%","baseline_pct":"39%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":7.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8004,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8001,"event_id":3478,"slug":"3478-stl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 67%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"53% → 67% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:26:00.716027Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:25:59.042583Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMjoyNjowMC43MTYwMjcrMDA6MDB8ODAwMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"67%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"STL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":15,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8001,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7925,"event_id":3478,"slug":"3478-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 53% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:28:06.998850Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:28:02.998232Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMDoyODowNi45OTg4NTArMDA6MDB8NzkyNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"53%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"STL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":15,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8001,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8001,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 67%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:26:00.716027Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:26 UTC"}}},{"id":7924,"event_id":3477,"slug":"3477-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:28:06.961713Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:28:02.998232Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMDoyODowNi45NjE3MTMrMDA6MDB8NzkyNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"STL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7924,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7883,"event_id":3449,"slug":"3449-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 10:39 AM and 11:39 AM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). 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\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n NEW · LATE\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 90%

\n ▲ 63% → 90% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 80%

\n ▲ 54% → 80% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n \n A+D\n RESTRICT\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model forecasts 63% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n 63% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 54% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n 54% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for St Louis departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n 45% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for St Louis departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 43% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

St Louis departures back near normal: 18% late in the last hour

\n late share 67% at worst → 18% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

St Louis departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 62% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 32%, near normal

\n 42% → 32%; calm-weather level 22%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for St Louis departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 42% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n STL\n DEP\n INBOUND\n RESOLVED\n \n

St Louis: 8 of 15 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n Tight turns 8 of 15\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n STL\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

St Louis arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 50% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 66% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n 66% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 59% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n 59% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for St Louis departures 3–6 PM Thursday

\n 48% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n STL\n DEP\n INBOUND\n RESOLVED\n \n

St Louis: 9 of 21 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n Tight turns 9 of 21\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n STL\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

St Louis arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 43% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

St Louis departure delays ease: 35% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 62% → 35%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 67%

\n ▲ 53% → 67% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 53% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

\n 53% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Monday

\n 46% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n STL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

St Louis departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 62% late\n
\n \n
"],"filters":"airport=STL&mode=all&view=terminal"}